Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

[Jdsk]

I think after Scotland, probably Northern Ireland.

If I had to bet I'd now go for Northern Ireland first. (But as some type of unification rather than "an independent administrative political entity".)

But we have the elections very soon and whatever the UK government is going to do next with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Jonathan

[Ben@Forest]

He is at pains to point out without Scotland UK loses its excellent submarine base.It would not be easy to replace.

The options are discussed upthread:
viewtopic.php?p=1635092#p1635092

That was in August 2021. People's opinions may have changed given what's been happening since February 2022. And it's still difficult to square the SNP's non-nuclear ambitions with NATO membership.

Other than the three NATO countries which have nuclear weapons a further five; Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey have nuclear weapons on their soil. Seven more participate in the Support of Nuclear Operations With Conventional Air Tactics (SNOWCAT), providing assistance in nuclear missions through conventional air support: Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland and Romania.

Frankly if Scotland wanted to continue to be under the NATO umbrella they'd almost certainly have to continue to provide Faslane as a base. Like other SNP policies concerning independence their stance on nuclear is very much of the 'have our cake and eat it' type. And that didn't work out fabulously well with what some Brexit supporting politicians or commentators expected from the EU.

[Jdsk]

He is at pains to point out without Scotland UK loses its excellent submarine base.It would not be easy to replace.

The options are discussed upthread:
viewtopic.php?p=1635092#p1635092

That was in August 2021. People's opinions may have changed given what's been happening since February 2022. And it's still difficult to square the SNP's non-nuclear ambitions with NATO membership.

Other than the three NATO countries which have nuclear weapons a further five; Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey have nuclear weapons on their soil. Seven more participate in the Support of Nuclear Operations With Conventional Air Tactics (SNOWCAT), providing assistance in nuclear missions through conventional air support: Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland and Romania.

Frankly if Scotland wanted to continue to be under the NATO umbrella they'd almost certainly have to continue to provide Faslane as a base. Like other SNP policies concerning independence their stance on nuclear is very much of the 'have our cake and eat it' type. And that didn't work out fabulously well with what some Brexit supporting politicians or commentators expected from the EU.

Yes, opinions may well have changed after the invasion of Ukraine.

I'd expect that support for NATO has increased, as elsewhere. That could reduce the remaining division within the SNP.

And there's a Nordic angle as well. The accession of Sweden and Finland could make membership a lot more comfortable for an independent Scotland.

Jonathan

[rualexander]

Once again, there's no real reason to suppose that after independence the SNP would have a majority role in the Scottish Government. Elections would be held, new political parties may well emerge, and the Parliament would almost certainly be established on a proportional representation basis.

[Jdsk]

The difficulty is presenting the Scots with fact based pluses and minuses of leaving.
I hope it doesn't follow the untruths told in the UK referendum, but maybe it'll just wanting to be free that wins the day.

Yes.

In the previous referendum on independence the quality of the proposal and the details of what what would happen were way ahead of what we saw in *2016.

I'm expecting something at least as detailed if there's another.

But you may well be right on the importance of sentiment.

The First Minister has just announced October 2023 as the intended date for a referendum.

And the first position paper (of ten) has been released:

"Independence in the Modern World. Wealthier, Happier, Fairer: Why Not Scotland?":
https://www.gov.scot/newscotland/

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

I wonder what effect Johnson's unpopularity might have on the referendum. Some voting for independence as having the likes of Johnson in Westminster making their laws is just unacceptable (whereas a better UK PM might not inspire such negativity). But will Johnson still be around when the referendum is held and would some of the candidates to replace him inspire such a negative sentiment/vote?

I also worry about the England/Scotland border trade impacts on how people vote. They will have seen the disaster around the border issues in Ireland and be concerned they'll have similar negative impacts (and the union campaigners will undoubtedly try and make that a real concern). But then I'm sure the SNP will have foreseen that and will have a strong case it wont be an issue (stronger than the "they need us more than we need them" the UK fell for ...)

Ian

[Jdsk]

I wonder what effect Johnson's unpopularity might have on the referendum. Some voting for independence as having the likes of Johnson in Westminster making their laws is just unacceptable (whereas a better UK PM might not inspire such negativity). But will Johnson still be around when the referendum is held and would some of the candidates to replace him inspire such a negative sentiment/vote?

I also worry about the England/Scotland border trade impacts on how people vote. They will have seen the disaster around the border issues in Ireland and be concerned they'll have similar negative impacts (and the union campaigners will undoubtedly try and make that a real concern). But then I'm sure the SNP will have foreseen that and will have a strong case it wont be an issue (stronger than the "they need us more than we need them" the UK fell for ...)

The preferences are pretty stable. The defenestration of Johnson might have some effect. But trade conflict between the UK and the EU could have a lot more.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

The difficulty is presenting the Scots with fact based pluses and minuses of leaving.
I hope it doesn't follow the untruths told in the UK referendum, but maybe it'll just wanting to be free that wins the day.

Yes.

In the previous referendum on independence the quality of the proposal and the details of what what would happen were way ahead of what we saw in *2016.

I'm expecting something at least as detailed if there's another.

But you may well be right on the importance of sentiment.

The First Minister has just announced October 2023 as the intended date for a referendum.

And the first position paper (of ten) has been released:

"Independence in the Modern World. Wealthier, Happier, Fairer: Why Not Scotland?":
https://www.gov.scot/newscotland/

"Letter from the First Minister to the Prime Minister on Independence Referendum":
https://www.gov.scot/publications/lette ... eferendum/

"Letter informing Prime Minister that Lord Advocate has, following a request from the FM, decided to refer to the Supreme Court the question of whether Scottish Parliament legislation for referendum relates to reserved matters."

Jonathan

PS: And an interesting contrast in the approach to the rule of law to that of Her Majesty's Government of the United Kingdom.

[pwa]

What we all need now is another EU/UK land border to find solutions for

If I were a resident of Scotland I would be wondering how much sense it makes divorcing from my nearest neighbour, the UK, whilst seeking re-admittance to a rather distant EU.

I doubt another vote on the matter will happen as long as BJ is still in office. It will come when SNP support is necessary to prop up a new UK Labour Government, which will also mean that Labour sign away long term prospects of power in what remains of the UK when Scotland is gone. If the vote goes wrong for them. We would then need a reconfiguring of the UK parties to ensure we continue to have a choice of government.

The chances are that if there is another referendum in the next few years, it will be with a Labour PM in Downing Street. Without a bogeyman figure like BJ there it may be harder to rouse Scottish voters to opt for yet more upheaval after what has been a turbulent decade or more. If I had to put money on it, I'd say they will stay.

[in4time]

No, it won’t. Stark realities will prevail and misty-eyed, some times angry-faced looks will give way to sense. For sure if Scotland votes for independence then its voters should get what they vote for. How you run a country without a currency will be a challenge though.

I’ve long thought that loose federation of former UK ‘states’ might be a collective and mutually beneficial way to go but, let the voter’s voice be heard.

[Mick F]

......... but it will be "first past the post" again, and up to half of the voters will be utterly disappointed.
Just like The Brexit Vote.

[Jdsk]

......... but it will be "first past the post" again, and up to half of the voters will be utterly disappointed.
Just like The Brexit Vote.

I don't expect the next referendum on independence for Scotland to be anything like the 2016 referendum. There will be a much higher quality of debate and extensive briefing papers beforehand. If the vote is for independence there will be a government that has responsibility for implementing the decision and wants to make it work.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

How you run a country without a currency will be a challenge though.

There will be a new paper on this from the Scottish Government, but I don't expect a major change in policy.

While we're waiting for that:

"Currency options for an independent Scotland":
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... d-currency

Jonathan

[Pebble]

If we get the vote and Boris is still in charge then i think there is a good possibility of a YES - I'm hoping we don't get the vote, or better still we get shot of Boris.

But in saying all that I don't know of anyone who has changed which side they are on, most people seem very entrenched in their views. So I doubt the result will vary by more than a percent or two.

[Jdsk]

If we get the vote and Boris is still in charge then i think there is a good possibility of a YES - I'm hoping we don't get the vote, or better still we get shot of Boris.

Curtice this week on the partisan angles:
https://strathclydetelegraph.com/2022/0 ... ependence/

includes:

“It is probably the next UK general election that is the next crucial event in this story… The truth is that the SNP’s best prospect for ending the block at Westminster is if we get a hung UK Parliament. If we get a hung Parliament out of the next UK general election in which the Labour party is looking for people who would help to sustain a Labour minority administration, that may be the SNP’s opportunity… I would not rule out the possibility that in those circumstances, the Labour party might agree to some kind of referendum. Though perhaps a multi-option referendum, or a referendum in which the choice is between Labour’s plans and the SNP’s plans.”

Jonathan