I’ve met people who have changed their voting intentions from 2016. They all felt lied to back then and I doubt the last couple of years has made them change their mind again.
The Tories told us in the 2019 election what a vote for SNP meant.
I’ve met people who have changed their voting intentions from 2016. They all felt lied to back then and I doubt the last couple of years has made them change their mind again.
A point I thought I'd already made but it must be on another thread. Former chancellor and now minor tv celeb Ed Balls lost the traditionally Labour Morley seat after claims that the SNP would write his next budget. (His successor is one of Boris Johnson's staunchest supporters.)Jdsk wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 9:18amCurtice this week on the partisan angles:
https://strathclydetelegraph.com/2022/0 ... ependence/
includes:
“It is probably the next UK general election that is the next crucial event in this story… The truth is that the SNP’s best prospect for ending the block at Westminster is if we get a hung UK Parliament. If we get a hung Parliament out of the next UK general election in which the Labour party is looking for people who would help to sustain a Labour minority administration, that may be the SNP’s opportunity… I would not rule out the possibility that in those circumstances, the Labour party might agree to some kind of referendum. Though perhaps a multi-option referendum, or a referendum in which the choice is between Labour’s plans and the SNP’s plans.”
Jonathan
"Weakened" might be understating it... without major realignment of parties independence of Scotland would entrench Conservative dominance in Parliament for the rump of the UK.Tangled Metal wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 9:51am So if a hung parliament results in a Labour/SNP coalition, which results in a referendum on Scottish independence, purely hypothetical. What would happen to the coalition on a vote for independence? Once it all goes through there would be no coalition and a weakened Labour government in Westminster.
Would Labour find that a tactically astute option? I think there's a lot of red, northern seats where patriotism is a part of the culture. Would they punish Labour at the GE later? I'm not sure Labour would form a coalition with SNP personally but I'm not an expert.
There are very good constitutional reasons for not making major changes on simple one-off majorities. Available techniques involve supermajorities, voting number thresholds, confirmations, cooling-off periods and multiple systems that have to agree.
YesPsamathe wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).
The bit I've highlighted seems to imply that the Supreme Court is an English institution.Psamathe wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).
Ian
I agree. I find the next General Election difficult to predict beyond that Johnson wont stay as PM. If Johnson still Conservative leader they'll lose. If somebody else Conservative leader everything depends on who and how much they can restore their votes (e.g. Truss, and they'll lose but somebody like Hunt becomes harder to predict).pwa wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 5:53am ...
The chances are that if there is another referendum in the next few years, it will be with a Labour PM in Downing Street. Without a bogeyman figure like BJ there it may be harder to rouse Scottish voters to opt for yet more upheaval after what has been a turbulent decade or more. If I had to put money on it, I'd say they will stay.
I think when it comes to political spin and PR it can be presented as such (just as the Westminster Government is not portrayed as representing Scotland).thirdcrank wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 11:07amThe bit I've highlighted seems to imply that the Supreme Court is an English institution.Psamathe wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).
Ian
Yes: this bit's about psychology rather than jurisdiction.Psamathe wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 11:12amI think when it comes to political spin and PR it can be presented as such (just as the Westminster Government is not portrayed as representing Scotland).thirdcrank wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 11:07amThe bit I've highlighted seems to imply that the Supreme Court is an English institution.Psamathe wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).
AgreedPsamathe wrote: ↑29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).
Ian