Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

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Scotland - an independent nation within 10 years?

Yes
48
54%
No
41
46%
 
Total votes: 89

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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

Pebble wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 9:07am But in saying all that I don't know of anyone who has changed which side they are on, most people seem very entrenched in their views. So I doubt the result will vary by more than a percent or two.
I’ve met people who have changed their voting intentions from 2016. They all felt lied to back then and I doubt the last couple of years has made them change their mind again.
The Tories told us in the 2019 election what a vote for SNP meant.
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thirdcrank
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by thirdcrank »

Jdsk wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 9:18am
Pebble wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 9:07am If we get the vote and Boris is still in charge then i think there is a good possibility of a YES - I'm hoping we don't get the vote, or better still we get shot of Boris.
Curtice this week on the partisan angles:
https://strathclydetelegraph.com/2022/0 ... ependence/

includes:

“It is probably the next UK general election that is the next crucial event in this story… The truth is that the SNP’s best prospect for ending the block at Westminster is if we get a hung UK Parliament. If we get a hung Parliament out of the next UK general election in which the Labour party is looking for people who would help to sustain a Labour minority administration, that may be the SNP’s opportunity… I would not rule out the possibility that in those circumstances, the Labour party might agree to some kind of referendum. Though perhaps a multi-option referendum, or a referendum in which the choice is between Labour’s plans and the SNP’s plans.”

Jonathan
A point I thought I'd already made but it must be on another thread. Former chancellor and now minor tv celeb Ed Balls lost the traditionally Labour Morley seat after claims that the SNP would write his next budget. (His successor is one of Boris Johnson's staunchest supporters.)
Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

So if a hung parliament results in a Labour/SNP coalition, which results in a referendum on Scottish independence, purely hypothetical. What would happen to the coalition on a vote for independence? Once it all goes through there would be no coalition and a weakened Labour government in Westminster.

Would Labour find that a tactically astute option? I think there's a lot of red, northern seats where patriotism is a part of the culture. Would they punish Labour at the GE later? I'm not sure Labour would form a coalition with SNP personally but I'm not an expert.
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Tangled Metal wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 9:51am So if a hung parliament results in a Labour/SNP coalition, which results in a referendum on Scottish independence, purely hypothetical. What would happen to the coalition on a vote for independence? Once it all goes through there would be no coalition and a weakened Labour government in Westminster.

Would Labour find that a tactically astute option? I think there's a lot of red, northern seats where patriotism is a part of the culture. Would they punish Labour at the GE later? I'm not sure Labour would form a coalition with SNP personally but I'm not an expert.
"Weakened" might be understating it... without major realignment of parties independence of Scotland would entrench Conservative dominance in Parliament for the rump of the UK.

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Mick F wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 8:53am ......... but it will be "first past the post" again, and up to half of the voters will be utterly disappointed.
Just like The Brexit Vote.
There are very good constitutional reasons for not making major changes on simple one-off majorities. Available techniques involve supermajorities, voting number thresholds, confirmations, cooling-off periods and multiple systems that have to agree.

I'm in favour of more direct democracy, including more referendums. But the UK has tried to impose simple one-off majority referendums on a predominantly indirect system.

And the 2016 referendum had an additional but distinct underlying fault: Leaving isn't exactly a plan. The minimum that should have followed was another referendum on the preferred future.

Jonathan
Psamathe
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).

Ian
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Psamathe wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).
Yes

Jonathan
thirdcrank
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by thirdcrank »

Psamathe wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).

Ian
The bit I've highlighted seems to imply that the Supreme Court is an English institution.
Psamathe
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

pwa wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 5:53am ...
The chances are that if there is another referendum in the next few years, it will be with a Labour PM in Downing Street. Without a bogeyman figure like BJ there it may be harder to rouse Scottish voters to opt for yet more upheaval after what has been a turbulent decade or more. If I had to put money on it, I'd say they will stay.
I agree. I find the next General Election difficult to predict beyond that Johnson wont stay as PM. If Johnson still Conservative leader they'll lose. If somebody else Conservative leader everything depends on who and how much they can restore their votes (e.g. Truss, and they'll lose but somebody like Hunt becomes harder to predict).

Maybe the likely loss of Johnson is the reason Ms Sturgeon has set a date and is taking steps to avoid it being strung-out by legal cases.

Ian
Psamathe
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Psamathe »

thirdcrank wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 11:07am
Psamathe wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).

Ian
The bit I've highlighted seems to imply that the Supreme Court is an English institution.
I think when it comes to political spin and PR it can be presented as such (just as the Westminster Government is not portrayed as representing Scotland).

Ian
Jdsk
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Jdsk »

Psamathe wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 11:12am
thirdcrank wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 11:07am
Psamathe wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).
The bit I've highlighted seems to imply that the Supreme Court is an English institution.
I think when it comes to political spin and PR it can be presented as such (just as the Westminster Government is not portrayed as representing Scotland).
Yes: this bit's about psychology rather than jurisdiction.

Jonathan
thirdcrank
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by thirdcrank »

I thought that "Westminster government" was a dog whistle (?) expression to dismiss out of hand all the politicians with Scottish "heritage" who have done well out of the system.

Re the Supreme Court: In layman's terms and AIUI, Scotland has its own legal system which operates in parallel with E&W. For example, in the matter of the unlawful prorogation of Parliament, the courts of E&W declined to stop it but the courts of Scotland ruled it was wrong (my words, not legal friendly lingo.) The Supreme Court decided in favour of the Scottish courts' decision.

Are people saying that SNP politicians are just as free with the reality as party politicians in general, and that Scottish voters are as easily conned as people more generally?
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Paulatic
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Paulatic »

Psamathe wrote: 29 Jun 2022, 11:00am I think Ms Sturgeon taking herself to the Supreme Count is a clever political move. She's created a win-win situation (for herself). If the court says yes she gets her vote and if the court says no then she gets an "excuse" why she can't hold a referendum ("not my fault") plus gets to further argue how England is yet again frustrating the wishes of the Scotland ("wishes" in that the Socttish Parliament has a majority of independence supporting MSPs).

Ian
Agreed :D
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Tangled Metal
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by Tangled Metal »

I don't think SNP leadership really want independence. What will that get them? Their whole reason for existing will have been achieved and they might have to start looking around for another battle with a group a lot of Scots can hate as much as England and Westminster.

A jaundiced view of the SNP but there's validity in there. SNP will, if they lose the SC ruling, have a way to simply ignore all the other aspects of Scottish needs to concentrate on independence. Will they even bother with a full manifesto? Would that be democratic if a party only engages on one aspect of importance to a section of the Scottish electorate and likely to be the only importance to an even smaller minority. As the largest party from Scotland not representing electorates interests outside of independence is a kind of dereliction imho
ambodach
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Re: Scotland - do you predict that it will be an independent administrative political entity within 10 years?

Post by ambodach »

After independence the SNP will just be another political party and others will spring from that and may well be in a position to form a ruling party of government.
There was never any doubt about that issue in the past and I have been an independence supporter for 60 years now.
Who rises to the top in future will be up to the electorate.
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