what the heck is going on??

Use this board for general non-cycling-related chat, or to introduce yourself to the forum.
Stradageek
Posts: 1652
Joined: 17 Jan 2011, 1:07pm

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by Stradageek »

Some simple explanations perhaps.

Firstly, a lot of people are buying high end electric vehicles and the subsidy is meaningless to them - a few grand off a £80k Tesla is neither here nor there.

Secondly, subsidies are just pure profit for the manufacturers. As a parallel example did you notice how the government help-to-buy scheme for first time house buyers instantly increased house prices by exactly the amount of the subsidy?

Thirdly, (and this is why there are so many Teslas on the road) they currently pay no VED and incur no tax as a company car. So all the highly paid execs are buying Teslas so that they can look cool, be marginally green, and save themselves a significant tax bill.

Amazingly, the government has got wise to this and is punishing the very rich - there is hope perhaps?
kwackers
Posts: 15643
Joined: 4 Jun 2008, 9:29pm
Location: Warrington

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by kwackers »

Stradageek wrote:Some simple explanations perhaps.

Firstly, a lot of people are buying high end electric vehicles and the subsidy is meaningless to them - a few grand off a £80k Tesla is neither here nor there.

Secondly, subsidies are just pure profit for the manufacturers. As a parallel example did you notice how the government help-to-buy scheme for first time house buyers instantly increased house prices by exactly the amount of the subsidy?

Thirdly, (and this is why there are so many Teslas on the road) they currently pay no VED and incur no tax as a company car. So all the highly paid execs are buying Teslas so that they can look cool, be marginally green, and save themselves a significant tax bill.

Amazingly, the government has got wise to this and is punishing the very rich - there is hope perhaps?

An 80k Tesla never got the subsidy anyway - it was capped at 50k.

Now it's down to 35k.
But yeah, Tesla sales are largely driven by company car folk and their tax free status but no Tesla costs less than £35k so they're all out.

With that in mind I'd argue that it's 'normal' folk trying to buy a family car that have been hit, not the rich folk buying £80k Teslas, Jags and Porches.
Jdsk
Posts: 24488
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by Jdsk »

Stradageek wrote:Some simple explanations perhaps.

Firstly, a lot of people are buying high end electric vehicles and the subsidy is meaningless to them - a few grand off a £80k Tesla is neither here nor there.

Secondly, subsidies are just pure profit for the manufacturers. As a parallel example did you notice how the government help-to-buy scheme for first time house buyers instantly increased house prices by exactly the amount of the subsidy?

Thirdly, (and this is why there are so many Teslas on the road) they currently pay no VED and incur no tax as a company car. So all the highly paid execs are buying Teslas so that they can look cool, be marginally green, and save themselves a significant tax bill.

Amazingly, the government has got wise to this and is punishing the very rich - there is hope perhaps?

"Marginally green"? There are many other things that we need to do to reduce atmospheric pollution but the migration to EVs is essential and the earlier the better. And that massive change consists lots of little purchasing decisions.

Jonathan
Stevek76
Posts: 2084
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by Stevek76 »

They're better than ICEs but they still contain substantial embedded carbon (as do the roads they travel on), 'emit' plenty of particulate matter (most is already brake/tyre dust & resuspension) and come with all the other car related problems.

Given that the large link between vehkm travelled (and therefore co2 produced) and wealth/income then I think those purchasing decisions are rather better influenced with upping the cost of ICEs, particularly the larger/heavier & more powerful ones.

Any subsidies and investment should be redirected to the altogether vastly more green modes of rail (including light variants, our tram/metro provision outside of london is awful to non-existent), bus and cycling
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
merseymouth
Posts: 2519
Joined: 23 Jan 2011, 11:16am

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by merseymouth »

Hi all, Well, if I have to have an electric vehicle instead of a ICE powered one it will have to be a Sinclair C5! Terrace house, no front garden, no rear access, so only the C5 will fit up my side entry. But how it will cope with two-up with luggage between Liverpool and Penrith is not looking good :roll: :lol: (The daughter lives up yonder)
Even if I do get an electric vehicle up there it still faces similar issues, as do many homes?
Still in my case the grim reaper may make the question rhetorical! Can't even look forward to my getting a free TV Licence :( :( :( MM
Jdsk
Posts: 24488
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by Jdsk »

merseymouth wrote:Even if I do get an electric vehicle up there it still faces similar issues, as do many homes?

There are lots of related and associated changes: decreased personal ownership of cars, summoning of driverless cars, low traffic neighbourhoods...

... are you thinking particularly of where EVs will be charged?

But there are going to be a lot of individually owned car-like objects for the foreseeable future. The less they pollute the better.

Jonathan
kwackers
Posts: 15643
Joined: 4 Jun 2008, 9:29pm
Location: Warrington

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by kwackers »

Stevek76 wrote:They're better than ICEs but they still contain substantial embedded carbon (as do the roads they travel on), 'emit' plenty of particulate matter (most is already brake/tyre dust & resuspension) and come with all the other car related problems.

Given that the large link between vehkm travelled (and therefore co2 produced) and wealth/income then I think those purchasing decisions are rather better influenced with upping the cost of ICEs, particularly the larger/heavier & more powerful ones.

Any subsidies and investment should be redirected to the altogether vastly more green modes of rail (including light variants, our tram/metro provision outside of london is awful to non-existent), bus and cycling

They're not just better, they're a lot better.
Should we promote other forms of transport more? Yes, obviously.

But you need to accept the reality that if we spent an infinite amount of money on bicycle paths and gave away bicycles they'd still have a small modal share.
And as for trains and buses - good luck with that. It's going to take a fair amount of effort to keep them as a thing post covid.

Nope, for the next decade or two private vehicles are going to be the main form of transport and I suspect after that it'll be self driving small boxes that replace them.
Since they're not going away then EV's are the least worst thing.

(I'm not sure where you get the idea that brake/tyre dust is "most", it's not even close. Not unless you're referring to the so called 'exposé' that worked out a set of 32kg tyres shed over 200kg of tyre dust over their life. Plus EV's rarely use their brakes.)
Stevek76
Posts: 2084
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by Stevek76 »

They're not just better, they're a lot better.


Given the value of congestion, road casualties, noise and air pollution externalised I'd argue otherwise. They're already heavily subsidised, they don't need extra. ICEs can be discouraged by taxing them higher.

At any rate, there isn't enough room on the roads for everyone to have their own private vehicle so you're going to need far better luck with that than for people to return to buses/rail, which, like most things will end up back far closer to normal than the post covid futurists would think.

But you need to accept the reality that if we spent an infinite amount of money on bicycle paths and gave away bicycles they'd still have a small modal share.


I don't have to accept that reality as the netherlands remains as evidence against. National cycling mode share is around 30% and in some cities is over 50%. Even in rural areas which had previously been balancing the urban increases decline is slowing and reversing between the combination of better rural cycle routes and ebikes.

I'm not sure where you get the idea that brake/tyre dust is "most", it's not even close.


Not the weird expose I'm afraid, but something rather more reliable https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/library/rep ... ort_id=992

Obviously for old bangers or dodgy DPF removed diesels, no it's not most, but for the fleet average it is now estimated to be the case. As for EVs not braking, that only applies when the hypermilers are driving them. The more typical MGIF driver is quite capable of regularly using the brake pads to slow the vehicle down.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
kwackers
Posts: 15643
Joined: 4 Jun 2008, 9:29pm
Location: Warrington

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by kwackers »

Stevek76 wrote:Given the value of congestion, road casualties, noise and air pollution externalised I'd argue otherwise. They're already heavily subsidised, they don't need extra. ICEs can be discouraged by taxing them higher.

At any rate, there isn't enough room on the roads for everyone to have their own private vehicle so you're going to need far better luck with that than for people to return to buses/rail, which, like most things will end up back far closer to normal than the post covid futurists would think.

In my ideal world, I'd ban cars tomorrow and pour all the money into public transport.
However idealism isn't realism.
In the real world people will simply cling to private transport long after you've taxed the poorest out of their vehicles, but more importantly in a democracy you stand zero chance of making it happen.

It really doesn't matter what you think, it isn't going to happen and if it isn't going to happen then we need a better alternative than IC and EV is it.
What's more we need to encourage the switch to EV as fast as possible, because the alternative is a multiplier of all the crap IC cars throw out. More particulate, more CO2, more NOX etc etc.
It's not perfect but it's still a lot better.


I don't have to accept that reality as the netherlands remains as evidence against.

Not really. Modal share of all trips in the Netherlands is just 27%, even in cities it doesn't hit 50% and that number hasn't changed much in years.
On top of that social norms in the Netherlands are somewhat different to over here. You'll never hit those numbers over here.

Not the weird expose I'm afraid, but something rather more reliable https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/library/rep ... ort_id=992

That report seems to spend most of its time telling us how hard these things are to measure and uses words like "uncertain" quite a lot.

The more typical MGIF driver is quite capable of regularly using the brake pads to slow the vehicle down.

Capable yes, but they don't.
I don't touch the brakes for most journeys in mine and I don't know anyone that owns one that does.
In fact the real issue is they get used so infrequently they're often a bit over-sharp due to rusted discs.


Anyway, it's an irrelevance.
What you and I want makes no odds, cars are here, they'll be here in 10 years time and folk will drive them.
We can try to get people into public transport but from my own experience there simply isn't the capacity or ability to produce that capacity without pouring loads of cash into them and the voters are never going to vote to have their freedom curtailed or spend the necessary tax revenue.
(And I speak as someone who cycled 40 odd miles a day to work and back and uses my car as infrequently as possible)
Jdsk
Posts: 24488
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by Jdsk »

kwackers wrote:What you and I want makes no odds, cars are here, they'll be here in 10 years time and folk will drive them.

Yes, we need to make progress on many different fronts.

One aspect that I don't think has come up this time around: EVs need to be charged, some of that will be away from home, and that needs changes to infrastructure. Subsidies are particularly important in the early stages of that change to avoid chicken-egg deadlock.

Jonathan
philvantwo
Posts: 1730
Joined: 8 Dec 2012, 6:08pm

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by philvantwo »

Electric vehicles are not the answer. Maybe BP know something as they're planning to build the UK biggest hydrogen plant in the UK in Teesside. In America they've built cars to run on Bluegas which is mostly hydrogen and the range of them is 300 miles.
Knackers says he'd ban all cars, what a selfish statement that is!
kwackers
Posts: 15643
Joined: 4 Jun 2008, 9:29pm
Location: Warrington

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by kwackers »

philvantwo wrote:Electric vehicles are not the answer. Maybe BP know something as they're planning to build the UK biggest hydrogen plant in the UK in Teesside. In America they've built cars to run on Bluegas which is mostly hydrogen and the range of them is 300 miles.
Knackers says he'd ban all cars, what a selfish statement that is!

Kwackers said in an "ideal world" he'd ban all cars and pour billions into public transport. Nothing selfish about that, it's what's actually needed.
But Kwackers is also a realist as he points out, we can't realistically ban cars so we simply need to make them as clean as possible and that means EV's.

Hydrogen isn't going to happen for private cars.
It's an inefficient source of power and currently for the most part its production is also one of the dirtiest.
Advances in battery technology are fast eating into any benefit it could have and for a lot of people you really shouldn't underestimate how attractive simply plugging a car in at home is.

The 300 mile range you talk about isn't a selling point since you can buy EV's now with 300 miles of range.

But even if hydrogen became a thing, so what? They're still EV's. Swapping the battery for a hydrogen based fuel cell doesn't change the basic vehicle.
Sure you *could* make hydrogen based IC engines but that's pointless for new builds, why take an inefficient process and make it more inefficient at point of use?

Having said all that, I think hydrogen has a place. There are classes of vehicles that would be difficult if not impossible to power from batteries.
There is a genuine need for hydrogen as a fuel source, it could be used for heating homes for example which would have a huge impact on greening things up.
And with a growing amount of renewables producing power when we don't have a use for it then turning that energy into hydrogen even at inefficient levels is a good thing.

However I still think the best solution would be to get people out of cars and onto a decent public transport system, you think that's selfish, I think it's a necessity (and I own an electric car).
francovendee
Posts: 3145
Joined: 5 May 2009, 6:32am

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by francovendee »

I've just spoken to my SIL and he said he's getting an EV. His job provides him with a car but he pays some form of tax for the benefit.
He drives into London from the outskirts, about 18 miles, and his reason for choosing the EV was for the taxation rises on IC cars for people like himself. Sorry to be a bit vague but I don't understand how benefits are taxed.
He's picking it up as soon as the fast charger has been installed
I'm pleased he's getting one as he'll let me know his thoughts on the pluses and minuses. He's an honest sort, not a trail blazer for the latest technology so I'll trust his views.
philvantwo
Posts: 1730
Joined: 8 Dec 2012, 6:08pm

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by philvantwo »

Get real krackers!
The cheapest battery car with a 300mile range is £50k! Who's going to pay that?
Narrow terraced streets with space for parking on one side only? Are we going to see extension leads trailing across all these roads?
What about lorries? Are they going to tow a trailer with the battery pack on board?
Battery cars are okay for use around towns but in the real world they're not the answer.
You obviously don't know very much about making batterys!
User avatar
ncutler
Moderator
Posts: 1471
Joined: 23 Apr 2007, 5:29pm
Location: Forest of Bowland Lancashire
Contact:

Re: what the heck is going on??

Post by ncutler »

Since I have now been driving an electric car for 9 months and have some practical experience I thought I might add to this discussion.

Nobody who has lived with a decent electric car is ever going to return to a vehicle propelled by an IC ( Infernal Confusion ) engine. No reciprocating parts, no vibration, no noise, no hot exhaust, no gears, no clunks, no oil changes, no engine servicing, no gearbox, no clutch, no exhaust pipe rusting and falling off, no smell, no warming up. Far less expensive to run, less expensive to service, no wasted journeys to 'fill it up', and in a time of covid no indoor exposure to petrol station cashiers. All of the problems would also apply to hydrogen: forget hydrogen. Hydrogen has a future for aviation, shipping.

What you do get is: Instant response, huge acceleration, everything is electric so everything just works. In winter the heating is available instantly.

Stevek76 wrote:The more typical MGIF driver is quite capable of regularly using the brake pads to slow the vehicle down.

It turns out that one really does use the brakes less. Partly, in our case, this is due to a very impressive 'cruise control' that is in reality about three quarters of the way towards autonomous driving. It knows about traffic in front and slows down for it, comes to a gentle halt and takes off again, drives itself round bends. Once you get used to the thing it feels incedibly safe: if I make a mistake it will take action; if it makes a mistake ( and so far it hasn't ) I can take over.

The other braking thing is this: IC cars slow down when you take your foot off due to the drag of the engine. Our car has options: paddles behind the wheel allow you to set zero braking ( you can coast happily, quietly, down suitable hills ), moderate electrical braking that's much the same as a normal car overrun, rather more braking - like a gentle foot on the pedal, lots of braking. You can switch instantly between any of these settings at any time, all without any use of the mechanical brakes.

Driving style: because you have such huge acceleration instantly available there is absolutely no point in getting close to anything and 'driving on the brakes'. Overtaking is easy from well behind the car in front. It's so easy to acellerate out of tight bends that there is no point in rushing up to a bend and standing on the brakes: the technique becomes approach gently, use the electric brake to slow down, turn in, whoosh ......

The only downside I can find is that it is a bit of a heavy lump round twisting lanes. And this is very early days: the things can only get better.
No pasaran
Post Reply