UFOs

[Mike Sales]

Isn't the topic raised about whether unidentified sightings are likely to be evidence of visiting alien intelligences?
But not about whether it is possible that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe.
I think that the likelihood of beings from elsewhere visiting us is vanishingly small, whether or not they exist very far away.

[Cowsham]

Isn't the topic raised about whether unidentified sightings are likely to be evidence of visiting alien intelligences?
But not about whether it is possible that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe.
I think that the likelihood of beings from elsewhere visiting us is vanishingly small, whether or not they exist very far away.

Yes or to put it another way even if they were millions of years ahead of us technologically we've never had any signals from them in "their past" of any sort to signify they are there. This means either we are alone or they are so far away nothing has reached us yet. At the speed of light or almost the speed of light that's a hell of a long way away or so far away we are essentially alone. The point Demis makes is that if there are many millions of species on different worlds far away they'll all be at different stages of their evolution so we should by now have a cacophony of different types of signals bombarding us from every side. Nothing ! Zilch ! Zero is what we hear.

[Cugel]

Isn't the topic raised about whether unidentified sightings are likely to be evidence of visiting alien intelligences?
But not about whether it is possible that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe.
I think that the likelihood of beings from elsewhere visiting us is vanishingly small, whether or not they exist very far away.

Yes or to put it another way even if they were millions of years ahead of us technologically we've never had any signals from them in "their past" of any sort to signify they are there. This means either we are alone or they are so far away nothing has reached us yet. At the speed of light or almost the speed of light that's a hell of a long way away or so far away we are essentially alone. The point Demis makes is that if there are many millions of species on different worlds far away they'll all be at different stages of their evolution so we should by now have a cacophony of different types of signals bombarding us from every side. Nothing ! Zilch ! Zero is what we hear.

Perhaps the aliens have adopted a Hawking position and suppressed into-spayus broadcasts on the grounds that they might attract a rabidly dangerous invasive species such as humans?

On the other hand, we may be living in an artificially-created software world in which outer space is but a backdrop, with no need to populate it with other things that are human like? Mind, this does beg the question: what is the hardware on which such software runs; and what/who wrote the software?

But what if Plan-it Erf is unique, with the evolution of biological and memetic breeders-with-mutations a process never developed elsewhere in the universe? Them "single amalgamated theory to explain everything" folk will be disappointed, as will The Trekkies!

Of course, some believe the world and its humans were created a mere 6000 years ago by a Big Man in The Sky. Does this mean that the ole rascal did the same elsewhere but they all fell to bits because they were unviable? This one might be the same, as we seem to be on the verge of "unviable" right now! I might paint up a-one o' them sandwich boards: "THE END IS NIGH!"

[Stevek76]

He seems rather handwavy about several points and factually incorrect about a couple of others.

A stand out one of the latter to me is on intelligence (ironic given his field!). There were of course the other similarly intelligent hominids that for various reasons didn't survive. There are also reasonably intelligent animals that simply ran into other limits (eg dolphins and elephants). Increasingly our understanding of biology and archaeology suggest there's nothing uniquely special about human intelligence other than just being higher, nothing to imply a significant great filter step there as was being implied.

The main point here though is about how much of the galaxy we can reliably say we've observed to be silent, a few decades ago, the best case range for a seti telescope was about 100ly, if that civilisation was actively broadcasting at us, in terms of everyday leakage emissions it was the next few stars if very optimistic. The SKA that will be completed over the next few years will probably be able to detect leakage emissions from up to the 100ly range which is still a tiny portion of our galaxy. The idea that there should be a cacophony we're already able to hear seems rather wide of the mark.

Also it's highly speculative that we will continue to broadcast microwave emissions indefinitely when the reality is we're already moving away from high power country/global radio transmissions after only a few decades of doing it as our demand for data carrying capacity increases.

[Cowsham]

He seems rather handwavy about several points and factually incorrect about a couple of others.

A stand out one of the latter to me is on intelligence (ironic given his field!). There were of course the other similarly intelligent hominids that for various reasons didn't survive. There are also reasonably intelligent animals that simply ran into other limits (eg dolphins and elephants). Increasingly our understanding of biology and archaeology suggest there's nothing uniquely special about human intelligence other than just being higher, nothing to imply a significant great filter step there as was being implied.

You and even I don't agree with everything he says but I agree with him that humans are the most intelligent creature at any time on this planet. The most successful have been the dinosaurs. 160 million years will take some beating but if there's one thing that could beat that it's AI. Success and intelligence are two different things.

The idea that there should be a cacophony we're already able to hear seems rather wide of the mark.

Wrt UFO sightings if they are alien then we should have had that, although there are some caveats and conditions I would want to insert into that statement but it's too big a subject and to understand that conversation we'd all need similar background education on those sciences concerned. Suffice to have a simplified idea to put across.

[Jdsk]

...
The most successful have been the dinosaurs. 160 million years will take some beating but if there's one thing that could beat that it's AI. Success and intelligence are two different things.
...

What are the criteria for which the answer is dinosaurs? Many species have been around for longer.

Jonathan

[pwa]

...
The most successful have been the dinosaurs. 160 million years will take some beating but if there's one thing that could beat that it's AI. Success and intelligence are two different things.
...

What are the criteria for which the answer is dinosaurs? Many species have been around for longer.

Jonathan

Tortoises have been around in more or less their current form for 200 million ears.

[Cowsham]

...
The most successful have been the dinosaurs. 160 million years will take some beating but if there's one thing that could beat that it's AI. Success and intelligence are two different things.
...

What are the criteria for which the answer is dinosaurs? Many species have been around for longer.

Jonathan

Tortoises have been around in more or less their current form for 200 million ears.

Well if you want to go down that rabbit hole ...
There's crocodiles and what else??? Ferns ??

[Jdsk]

What are the criteria for which the answer is dinosaurs? Many species have been around for longer.

Tortoises have been around in more or less their current form for 200 million ears.

Well if you want to go down that rabbit hole ...
There's crocodiles and what else??? Ferns ??

We don't know what criteria you're using...

Jonathan

[Cugel]

Tortoises have been around in more or less their current form for 200 million ears.

Well if you want to go down that rabbit hole ...
There's crocodiles and what else??? Ferns ??

We don't know what criteria you're using...

Jonathan

Being human - highly subjective and anthropomorphic criteria. What might be called "species level solipsism".

How else to explain the bizarre opinion that humans are the most intelligent creatures on the planet?

[pwa]

What are the criteria for which the answer is dinosaurs? Many species have been around for longer.

Jonathan

Tortoises have been around in more or less their current form for 200 million ears.

Well if you want to go down that rabbit hole ...
There's crocodiles and what else??? Ferns ??

Yes. We have a tortoise and there is something special about a creature whose ancestors were more or less identical, 200 million years ago. Nowt to do with UFOs of course. Far more interesting than that.

[Cowsham]

Tortoises have been around in more or less their current form for 200 million ears.

Well if you want to go down that rabbit hole ...
There's crocodiles and what else??? Ferns ??

Yes. We have a tortoise and there is something special about a creature whose ancestors were more or less identical, 200 million years ago. Nowt to do with UFOs of course. Far more interesting than that.

Maybe it has everything to do with UFO's. What if millions of years ago a UFO landed here but soon as the aliens open the hatch a T-Rex ate them. The one survivor takes off back to Zogg and warns the rest of the universe it's a dangerous hole of a place. That's why we haven't seen anymore of the blighters.

[kylecycler]

Maybe it has everything to do with UFO's. What if millions of years ago a UFO landed here but soon as the aliens open the hatch a T-Rex ate them. The one survivor takes off back to Zogg and warns the rest of the universe it's a dangerous hole of a place. That's why we haven't seen anymore of the blighters.

To boldly go where no Zoggian has gone before - and live (well, at least one) to tell the tale.

[Mike Sales]

Maybe it has everything to do with UFO's. What if millions of years ago a UFO landed here but soon as the aliens open the hatch a T-Rex ate them. The one survivor takes off back to Zogg and warns the rest of the universe it's a dangerous hole of a place. That's why we haven't seen anymore of the blighters.

To boldly go where no Zoggian has gone before - and live (well, at least one) to tell the tale.

Does anyone else remember this SF story?
The alien spaceship has landed on earth and the troops prepare by the air lock to emerge onto the strange planet.
The door opens and they rush out, weapons at the ready, only to be slurped up by the tongue of the family dog.

[Jdsk]

Maybe it has everything to do with UFO's. What if millions of years ago a UFO landed here but soon as the aliens open the hatch a T-Rex ate them. The one survivor takes off back to Zogg and warns the rest of the universe it's a dangerous hole of a place. That's why we haven't seen anymore of the blighters.

To boldly go where no Zoggian has gone before - and live (well, at least one) to tell the tale.

Does anyone else remember this SF story?
The alien spaceship has landed on earth and the troops prepare by the air lock to emerge onto the strange planet.
The door opens and they rush out, weapons at the ready, only to be slurped up by the tongue of the family dog.

I'd guess that most readers will know it through Hitchhiker. But here's an attempt to see where it originated:
https://scifi.stackexchange.com/questio ... ingle-foot

Of course it raises a serious point about assumptions in communication.

Happy Christmas

Jonathan