Covid Booster. Yes/No? *** The Covid Thread ***

[horizon]

Urgent operations being postponed after PM tells England to ‘ride out’ Omicron wave
Urgent operations such as cardiac and cancer treatments are being delayed in hospitals as the NHS is stretched like never before, health leaders have warned.

Loads of hospitals declaring critical incidents, military being called in to help out hospitals and Johnson thinks this is the NHS coping!

Been told a coupe of days ago that my local ENT department now has an 18 month waiting list - coping?

Ian

There was a good piece on last night's Radio 4 news at 6.00 pm from Chris Mason in Reading (prior to the later Any Questions). He visited the main hospital in Reading and talked to staff and the (I think) chief executive. While I wouldn't say they were laid back, they certainly seemed to be on top of things and were proud of their coping mechanisms (such as virtual hospital beds). Try as Chris tried, he couldn't get much out of them in the way of panic stations.

I have no doubt that the NHS is hopelessly under-resourced and while not pehaps ready for privatisation, I get the impression that a lot of treatment is of the sort that could be farmed out to private companies - it is privatisaion by the back door. While this is bad enough, I reckon it even twists medical treatment in favour of such procedures rather than perhaps more time consuming, person-led medicine, but who knows.

Anyway, the BBC seems to want a crisis even when it's just winter pressures (severe as they are). And if they got rid of the ridiculous isolation rules, we might see lots of NHS staff back on duty which would help.

[[XAP]Bob]

If we got rid of the essential isolation rules then we would have even more staff off sick.

[francovendee]

Yesterday the 'official' death toll from Covid reached 150000 in the UK. This is a large number but only 4th in the list. Many sources seem to question the accuracy of the numbers, not just the UK.
It's clear that the vaccine had a huge effect on the numbers dying each day but many still refuse to be vaccinated.
A famous tennis player is currently in the news over this and whilst I'm against making it compulsory there must be some merit in limiting access to public venues for the non vaccinated?
On a personal level the time when I'd feel aggrieved is if a relative became seriously ill and couldn't get treatment because all the icu beds were full with non vaccinated people with serious Covid.
We've a friend of a friend who's a nurse. She doesn't trust the vaccine and refuses to have it. She points out she's not caught it but a number of her vaccinated colleagues have.
Hospitals are a public place so she wouldn't be able to work if we did impose barriers to public places.
Freedom of choice is a difficult thing to define.

[[XAP]Bob]

Freedom of choice … I chose to drive at 50 mph through town.
I chose to smoke in an office
I choose to drive home from the pub
I choose to take bread from a shop
I choose to leave my litter where I am


Freedom isn’t an absolute - it’s conditional on society, and I’d be absolutely for making the vaccine compulsory - with appropriate exemptions for those who cannot take it (I am unaware of any religious objections).

[PDQ Mobile]

"Data from Public Health Wales shows that of the 544 people in hospital with the virus on December 2, more than three-quarters (76.1%) had been doubled-jabbed, 3.5% had received only had dose and 16.5% were unvaccinated. The majority of Covid-19 patients at the time were over 60."

From https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/heal ... l-22564491

[Jdsk]

"Data from Public Health Wales shows that of the 544 people in hospital with the virus on December 2, more than three-quarters (76.1%) had been doubled-jabbed, 3.5% had received only had dose and 16.5% were unvaccinated. The majority of Covid-19 patients at the time were over 60."

From https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/heal ... l-22564491

What conclusions did you draw from that, please?

Thanks

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

"Data from Public Health Wales shows that of the 544 people in hospital with the virus on December 2, more than three-quarters (76.1%) had been doubled-jabbed, 3.5% had received only had dose and 16.5% were unvaccinated. The majority of Covid-19 patients at the time were over 60."

From https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/heal ... l-22564491

"Base rate fallacy" a statistical effect that demonstrates a weird aspect of statistics (and shows nothing about effectiveness of vaccines). Short (10 min) BBC More of Less podcast explains it https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09rkn2z

Ian

[Psamathe]

.... and I’d be absolutely for making the vaccine compulsory - with appropriate exemptions for those who cannot take it (I am unaware of any religious objections).

I mostly agree. I'd probably go for much stronger constraints for those who were not vaccinated/genuinely exempt - in effect "strict lockdown" (with no bubbles) even including anti-vax tennis stars.

Ian

[PDQ Mobile]

"Data from Public Health Wales shows that of the 544 people in hospital with the virus on December 2, more than three-quarters (76.1%) had been doubled-jabbed, 3.5% had received only had dose and 16.5% were unvaccinated. The majority of Covid-19 patients at the time were over 60."

From https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/heal ... l-22564491

What conclusions did you draw from that, please?

Thanks

Jonathan

What conclusions do you draw please?

But the main thing I (personally) think relevant is
that to compulsorily vaccinate a small minority people against their will does more harm than has benefit.

I am a (vaccine) liberal.

[Jdsk]

"Data from Public Health Wales shows that of the 544 people in hospital with the virus on December 2, more than three-quarters (76.1%) had been doubled-jabbed, 3.5% had received only had dose and 16.5% were unvaccinated. The majority of Covid-19 patients at the time were over 60."

From https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/heal ... l-22564491

What conclusions did you draw from that, please?

What conclusions do you draw please?

It read to me that you were selectively quoting the article in order to suggest that vaccination wasn't protective.

As the same article says:

"The data clearly demonstrates that people are far more likely to end up in hospital should they be unvaccinated."

and

"Given more than 95% of the age groups and vulnerable populations most likely to need hospital treatment for Covid have been double vaccinated, it clearly shows that having both jabs significantly reduces your risk of being hospitalised with Covid and that the unvaccinated are disproportionately significantly affected by Covid.

Separate data from November 1 on the same report from Public Health Wales suggests you are around three times more likely to need hospital treatment if you haven't had a Covid jab than if you have."

And Ian has already linked to the statistical explanation.

Jonathan

[slowster]

From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52380643

[PDQ Mobile]

It read to me that you were selectively quoting the article in order to suggest that vaccination wasn't protective.

As the same article says:

"The data clearly demonstrates that people are far more likely to end up in hospital should they be unvaccinated."

and

"Given more than 95% of the age groups and vulnerable populations most likely to need hospital treatment for Covid have been double vaccinated, it clearly shows that having both jabs significantly reduces your risk of being hospitalised with Covid and that the unvaccinated are disproportionately significantly affected by Covid.

Separate data from November 1 on the same report from Public Health Wales suggests you are around three times more likely to need hospital treatment if you haven't had a Covid jab than if you have."

And Ian has already linked to the statistical explanation.

Jonathan

Oh yes I saw the further text (not selective but in the cause of brevity) but in all sincerity wondered how they could write:-

"The data clearly demonstrates that people are far more likely to end up in hospital should they be unvaccinated."

The hospitals here are 80% taken up by vaccinated people.
Just that.

These figures are from the start of the rise of Omicron so we are looking at mostly Delta (against which double vaccination is said to be very effective).

80% or more here have had the double vaccination.
50% and rising are already boostered.
So 20% are/ waiting/ have a good reason/ or will never have it under any circumstance/ etc etc.
One would guess only around 10% are really hardened against.

Given the high levels of vaccination and current infection rates one wonders how much is ACTUALLY spread by the 20% unvaccinated in proportion?
Because clearly fully vaccinated folk CAN still pass it on.


I will not see the idea or acceptance of the idea of compulsory vaccination put forward without challenge.

You yourself still do not favour it? You previously said that was so.

[[XAP]Bob]

.... and I’d be absolutely for making the vaccine compulsory - with appropriate exemptions for those who cannot take it (I am unaware of any religious objections).

I mostly agree. I'd probably go for much stronger constraints for those who were not vaccinated/genuinely exempt - in effect "strict lockdown" (with no bubbles) even including anti-vax tennis stars.

Ian

I’m not convinced that is necessary - the affected people are not affected by choice, and are so few in number that their movement is unlikely to make a noticeable difference in infection rates (assuming of course that other sensible measures are taken).

I’d be much more positive if the suggestion was for them having LFTs every morning though…

[Jdsk]

It read to me that you were selectively quoting the article in order to suggest that vaccination wasn't protective.

As the same article says:

"The data clearly demonstrates that people are far more likely to end up in hospital should they be unvaccinated."

and

"Given more than 95% of the age groups and vulnerable populations most likely to need hospital treatment for Covid have been double vaccinated, it clearly shows that having both jabs significantly reduces your risk of being hospitalised with Covid and that the unvaccinated are disproportionately significantly affected by Covid.

Separate data from November 1 on the same report from Public Health Wales suggests you are around three times more likely to need hospital treatment if you haven't had a Covid jab than if you have."

And Ian has already linked to the statistical explanation.

Oh yes I saw the further text (not selective but in the cause of brevity) but in all sincerity wondered how they could write:-

"The data clearly demonstrates that people are far more likely to end up in hospital should they be unvaccinated."

The hospitals here are 80% taken up by vaccinated people.
Just that.

They wrote that because it's true. Ian has linked to the explanation from More or Less. slowster has shown the rates above. I recommend Spiegelhalter:
https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver ... vaccinated

Jonathan

[horizon]

I've asked the mods once again to state a view on this discussion:

Once again we seem to be slipping into a morass here making participation in the forum difficult. The posters are probably unaware of the effect of their statements on other users but also unaware that they cannot be replied to properly under forum rules or even simply because it will make the forum unpleasant. Can you give your view in a post on the thread. Thank you.

I'm very happy to have a robust discussion but as we know that is likely to simply get posts deleted and the thread locked. AIUI the OP was about those who have had/would have had a booster vaccination and I'm suggesting that the thread is no longer simply about that. This is an emotive topic: please can we be aware of what we write and the the effect it might have?