War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

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reohn2
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

LancsGirl wrote: 11 May 2022, 6:28pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 5:19pm Lancs Girl
I'm going with Mike's analogy.
In other words,if the button is pushed and the UK is the target and we don't stop it midflight we're are fooked,if we do stop it midflight someone could be!

We can look at the possibilities and predictions,but the human race has some truly awesome power at it's finger tips which means there's no winners.
We can also look at the possibility that because of that it won't happen,but when a seemingly meglomanic madman has the destruction of the world,or at least a large part of it,at hand,I get worried!

That said,thanks for the reassurance.
It's a shame you don't seem to have taken the time to investigate any of the links I gave.

Ah well, such is the internet, I suppose.
I wish I had your confidence,take a look at the destruction caused by modern conventional warfare such as is currently happening in Ukraine or Syria,yes it's localised but a nuclear strike wouldn't be by comparison.
If Russia's nukes are as badly maintained as you suppose then if they leak or accidently explode in their bunkers,only Russia and perhaps limited countries to the west would suffer,as if that wouldn't matter!

But as you say other than in Japan and some nuclear weapons tests in isolated places,the affects aren't really known,though the effects of a single nuclear plant exploding in Chernobyl had a pretty devastating effect.

As I said thanks for you reasurrance,but it doesn't put my mind at rest if people start lobbing nukes about.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
LancsGirl
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Joined: 5 Jun 2021, 9:57pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by LancsGirl »

reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 7:08pm
LancsGirl wrote: 11 May 2022, 6:28pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 5:19pm Lancs Girl
I'm going with Mike's analogy.
In other words,if the button is pushed and the UK is the target and we don't stop it midflight we're are fooked,if we do stop it midflight someone could be!

We can look at the possibilities and predictions,but the human race has some truly awesome power at it's finger tips which means there's no winners.
We can also look at the possibility that because of that it won't happen,but when a seemingly meglomanic madman has the destruction of the world,or at least a large part of it,at hand,I get worried!

That said,thanks for the reassurance.
It's a shame you don't seem to have taken the time to investigate any of the links I gave.

Ah well, such is the internet, I suppose.
I wish I had your confidence,take a look at the destruction caused by modern conventional warfare such as is currently happening in Ukraine or Syria,yes it's localised but a nuclear strike wouldn't be by comparison.
If Russia's nukes are as badly maintained as you suppose then if they leak or accidently explode in their bunkers,only Russia and perhaps limited countries to the west would suffer,as if that wouldn't matter!

But as you say other than in Japan and some nuclear weapons tests in isolated places,the affects aren't really known,though the effects of a single nuclear plant exploding in Chernobyl had a pretty devastating effect.

As I said thanks for you reasurrance,but it doesn't put my mind at rest if people start lobbing nukes about.
I'm not trying to "reassure" you, or anybody else.

A single nuclear device is a horrible thing. Lots of them at once even more so. I'd like them not to be used, and not even exist at all.

And I certainly don't have "confidence" about what a full scale nuclear exchange would be like. Quite the opposite. I'm saying that a great deal of it is unknown.

It is actually those who think that they "know" exactly what a full scale nuclear would be like who have confidence. Greatly misplaced confidence, based on very little knowledge and, I suspect, nothing more than a smattering of popular culture - On The Beach, The Day After, Threads, etc. Or the very debatable idea of "nuclear winter".

Some of the physics of a nuclear explosion is well established. Though it's worth looking at the "TNT Equivalent" link I posted earlier to see that that isn't a settled area. But nuclear fission (then fusion) itself, the prompt effects of EMP, IR radiation, gamma radiation, then blast effects, are reasonably easy to predict, as well as defensive measure against them, some of which are easy to take. Remember that Akiko Takakura survived the Hiroshima bomb, despite being only 300 metres from ground zero. She lived to old age, in her 80s I think. The IR radiation is relatively easy to shield from, as evidenced by the difference between burn severity on naked versus clothed skin. The effects of fallout are more variable.

But people express strident views on internet platforms, without appearing to have the least knowledge or evidence to back up those views. And to double down on that lack of knowledge, by not even addressing evidence which is placed before them, doesn't make their strongly held views more credible. Quite the reverse.
LancsGirl
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by LancsGirl »

mattheus wrote: 11 May 2022, 2:15pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 1:29pm All that said humanity has never ever been in a more precarious position with abiliy to wipe out the planet's life form in a matter of weeks,maybe even days.
Even a smaller nuclear strike could leave the majority of humanity suffering and dying over a period of months or years.
That has barely changed since the 60s. That's before many members here were born.
The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined very substantially "since the 60s"

https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons
reohn2
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

Sorry missed this post
Mike Sales wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:21pm Does Russia count as a rogue state?
Yes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
mattheus
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Location: Western Europe

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by mattheus »

LancsGirl wrote: 11 May 2022, 10:04pm
mattheus wrote: 11 May 2022, 2:15pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 1:29pm All that said humanity has never ever been in a more precarious position with abiliy to wipe out the planet's life form in a matter of weeks,maybe even days.
Even a smaller nuclear strike could leave the majority of humanity suffering and dying over a period of months or years.
That has barely changed since the 60s. That's before many members here were born.
The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined very substantially "since the 60s"

https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons
Thankyou.

(Nice to see some good news on this thread!
Marcus Aurelius
Posts: 1903
Joined: 1 Feb 2018, 10:20am

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Marcus Aurelius »

Ben@Forest wrote: 30 Apr 2022, 6:34pm
Marcus Aurelius wrote: 30 Apr 2022, 4:47pm
reohn2 wrote: 30 Apr 2022, 8:58am Ben
I sobering story though not entirely surprising in the least.
It’s also totally fake propaganda.
At the end of the article is says this:

The author, Irina Rastorguyeva, born in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, lives in Berlin. Her book “The Russian Simulacrum” will be published by Matthes & Seitz soon.

I would expect her book will have been checked to some level of likelihood and accuracy. And her article is far from the only one which has reported on Russian brutality and corruption in the further remote reaches of the country.
Pinning everything squarely on the Russians is probably wrong. I don’t like what Russia are doing, however, I believe that a lot of the worst stuff is being perpetrated by Mercs, usually originating in Africa. It’s not the Russian military way to behave like that ( against civilians at least). I’m sure there have been some rogues in the elite echelons, but I wouldn’t mind betting that the majority of the worst stuff is at the hands of African ( and other ) mercs. ISIS have been twiddling their thumbs of late, I’d be amazed if some of it isn’t their doing.
Marcus Aurelius
Posts: 1903
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Marcus Aurelius »

LancsGirl wrote: 11 May 2022, 10:04pm
mattheus wrote: 11 May 2022, 2:15pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 1:29pm All that said humanity has never ever been in a more precarious position with abiliy to wipe out the planet's life form in a matter of weeks,maybe even days.
Even a smaller nuclear strike could leave the majority of humanity suffering and dying over a period of months or years.
That has barely changed since the 60s. That's before many members here were born.
The number of nuclear weapons in the world has declined very substantially "since the 60s"

https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons
Loads of them won’t work anymore either.
LancsGirl
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by LancsGirl »

Marcus Aurelius wrote: 12 May 2022, 4:49pm
Ben@Forest wrote: 30 Apr 2022, 6:34pm
Marcus Aurelius wrote: 30 Apr 2022, 4:47pm

It’s also totally fake propaganda.
At the end of the article is says this:

The author, Irina Rastorguyeva, born in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, lives in Berlin. Her book “The Russian Simulacrum” will be published by Matthes & Seitz soon.

I would expect her book will have been checked to some level of likelihood and accuracy. And her article is far from the only one which has reported on Russian brutality and corruption in the further remote reaches of the country.
Pinning everything squarely on the Russians is probably wrong. I don’t like what Russia are doing, however, I believe that a lot of the worst stuff is being perpetrated by Mercs, usually originating in Africa. It’s not the Russian military way to behave like that ( against civilians at least).
Really? I think a lot of the women of Berlin (and elsewhere in Germany) in 1945 would disagree with that. Anthony Beevor is a well respected historian, read his book "Berlin, The Downfall", if you would like to see your cosy view corrected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_duri ... of_Germany
Marcus Aurelius
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Marcus Aurelius »

LancsGirl wrote: 12 May 2022, 5:59pm
Marcus Aurelius wrote: 12 May 2022, 4:49pm
Ben@Forest wrote: 30 Apr 2022, 6:34pm

At the end of the article is says this:

The author, Irina Rastorguyeva, born in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, lives in Berlin. Her book “The Russian Simulacrum” will be published by Matthes & Seitz soon.

I would expect her book will have been checked to some level of likelihood and accuracy. And her article is far from the only one which has reported on Russian brutality and corruption in the further remote reaches of the country.
Pinning everything squarely on the Russians is probably wrong. I don’t like what Russia are doing, however, I believe that a lot of the worst stuff is being perpetrated by Mercs, usually originating in Africa. It’s not the Russian military way to behave like that ( against civilians at least).
Really? I think a lot of the women of Berlin (and elsewhere in Germany) in 1945 would disagree with that. Anthony Beevor is a well respected historian, read his book "Berlin, The Downfall", if you would like to see your cosy view corrected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_duri ... of_Germany
This isn’t the Russians against the Germans ( who they hated with an exceptional passion, for good reason ). This is Russian ( conscripts for the most part ) who run away, abandoning their equipment, as soon as possible, against an ‘enemy’ who most of them don’t want to be fighting. If you don’t see the difference, I suggest you may want to look more carefully. The Mercs are quite willing to pick up abandoned Russian kit, and pile in, all guns blazing. A lot of the ‘Russian atrocities’ almost certainly aren’t. I’ve no doubt the Elite end of the Russian military are capable and willing to go in harder, but I’d be amazed if most of the really grim stuff in this conflict, is actually being perpetrated by the Russians.
DaveReading
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by DaveReading »

Marcus Aurelius wrote: 12 May 2022, 4:49pmI believe that a lot of the worst stuff is being perpetrated by Mercs, usually originating in Africa. It’s not the Russian military way to behave like that ( against civilians at least).
This footage

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61425025

would suggest otherwise.
LancsGirl
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by LancsGirl »

Marcus Aurelius wrote: 12 May 2022, 7:40pm
LancsGirl wrote: 12 May 2022, 5:59pm
Marcus Aurelius wrote: 12 May 2022, 4:49pm

Pinning everything squarely on the Russians is probably wrong. I don’t like what Russia are doing, however, I believe that a lot of the worst stuff is being perpetrated by Mercs, usually originating in Africa. It’s not the Russian military way to behave like that ( against civilians at least).
Really? I think a lot of the women of Berlin (and elsewhere in Germany) in 1945 would disagree with that. Anthony Beevor is a well respected historian, read his book "Berlin, The Downfall", if you would like to see your cosy view corrected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rape_duri ... of_Germany
This isn’t the Russians against the Germans ( who they hated with an exceptional passion, for good reason ). This is Russian ( conscripts for the most part ) who run away, abandoning their equipment, as soon as possible, against an ‘enemy’ who most of them don’t want to be fighting. If you don’t see the difference, I suggest you may want to look more carefully. The Mercs are quite willing to pick up abandoned Russian kit, and pile in, all guns blazing. A lot of the ‘Russian atrocities’ almost certainly aren’t. I’ve no doubt the Elite end of the Russian military are capable and willing to go in harder, but I’d be amazed if most of the really grim stuff in this conflict, is actually being perpetrated by the Russians.
Hang on, you made a very broad assertion about a country's army. Here are the words you wrote:

"It’s not the Russian military way to behave like that ( against civilians at least)."

I presented an example of when, historically, the Russian military behaved very very badly, towards civilians. I "suggest that you may want to look more carefully" (using exactly the same patronising language as you) before you make such general assertions.
Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/putin-warns-finland-joining-nato-harm-russia-relations wrote: Russian president tells Finnish counterpart the move would be an error and ‘negatively affect’ ties

The Russian president has warned his Finnish counterpart that relations between the two neighbours could be “negatively affected” if Finland follows through with plans to apply for Nato membership.
...
The above report made me wonder if Putin is living in some other Universe. Does he think that invading a neighbour that presented no threat purely on his own twisted view of history would not badly affect relations with other countries? Does Putin expect to invade another country, breaking existing agreements and the rest of the world would still treat Russia as though nothing had happened?

Ian
slowster
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by slowster »

Psamathe wrote: 14 May 2022, 5:27pm Does Putin expect to invade another country, breaking existing agreements and the rest of the world would still treat Russia as though nothing had happened?
To a significant degree that is what happened when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, and subsequently supported the separatists in the Donbas. The west imposed sanctions, but arguably they were nowhere near strong enough or properly enforced. France and Germany made a lot of military sales to Russia despite the sanctions, and Siemens and Grundfos for example sold equipment for a major Russian infrastructure project in Crimea to supply fresh water.
UpWrong
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by UpWrong »

Most analysts suggest we are now in for a long, drawn out conflict. Putin's life history is never to give in, never show weakness. It's now a test of our resolve. Some may be prepared to sacrifice Ukraine for the sake of peace, but we are warned that Putin's imperialism will not stop with Ukraine. It's worth listening to Ukrainecast's "What are Russian's thinking?" The Moscow professor makes it clear they now live in a surveillance state, unable to express their views or show any disloyalty to the state, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0c6968n

We can never be at peace with Putin. He has to go. Hopefully there will be an internal move against him. It may take another year, until Russia is an impoverished bankrupt country and unrest grows.
UpWrong
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by UpWrong »

Marcus Aurelius wrote: 12 May 2022, 7:40pm A lot of the ‘Russian atrocities’ almost certainly aren’t. I’ve no doubt the Elite end of the Russian military are capable and willing to go in harder, but I’d be amazed if most of the really grim stuff in this conflict, is actually being perpetrated by the Russians.
A lot of the ‘Russian atrocities’ almost certainly are the actions of Russian soldiers, not mercs:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61442387
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