War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

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mattheus
Posts: 5044
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Location: Western Europe

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by mattheus »

reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 1:29pm All that said humanity has never ever been in a more precarious position with abiliy to wipe out the planet's life form in a matter of weeks,maybe even days.
Even a smaller nuclear strike could leave the majority of humanity suffering and dying over a period of months or years.
That has barely changed since the 60s. That's before many members here were born.
reohn2
Posts: 45159
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

mattheus wrote: 11 May 2022, 2:15pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 1:29pm All that said humanity has never ever been in a more precarious position with abiliy to wipe out the planet's life form in a matter of weeks,maybe even days.
Even a smaller nuclear strike could leave the majority of humanity suffering and dying over a period of months or years.
That has barely changed since the 60s. That's before many members here were born.
You're probably right,but my understanding is that nuclear weapons are now more powerful than then and more rogue states have them.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
Mike Sales
Posts: 7883
Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Mike Sales »

reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:19pm

You're probably right,but my understanding is that nuclear weapons are now more powerful than then and more rogue states have them.
Does Russia count as a rogue state?
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
Psamathe
Posts: 17650
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:19pm
mattheus wrote: 11 May 2022, 2:15pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 1:29pm All that said humanity has never ever been in a more precarious position with abiliy to wipe out the planet's life form in a matter of weeks,maybe even days.
Even a smaller nuclear strike could leave the majority of humanity suffering and dying over a period of months or years.
That has barely changed since the 60s. That's before many members here were born.
You're probably right,but my understanding is that nuclear weapons are now more powerful than then and more rogue states have them.
My feeling (maybe partly due to the time since the 60's) is that back then our leaders were scared of Nuclear Weapons and Mutually Assured Destruction. Today I'm not convinced Putin is. I have a suspicion he is so deluded by Russian military superiority he might think he can intercept all incoming threats.

That said I do recognise that whilst Russian media is somewhat "controlled", we are subject to propaganda in the West (despite us liking to think we are not).

Ian
Psamathe
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Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

Mike Sales wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:21pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:19pm

You're probably right,but my understanding is that nuclear weapons are now more powerful than then and more rogue states have them.
Does Russia count as a rogue state?
Whilst I don't know the definition of "Rogue State", a country who leadership repeatedly carries out assassinations on foreign soil (also killing citizens of that "country as collateral damage"), a country that breaks international agreements (without warning) and invades a country on the deluded warped aspirations of their leader to live in the past, etc. - in my personal opinion that should be included within "Rogue State".

Ian
reohn2
Posts: 45159
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

Psamathe wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:24pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:19pm
mattheus wrote: 11 May 2022, 2:15pm

That has barely changed since the 60s. That's before many members here were born.
You're probably right,but my understanding is that nuclear weapons are now more powerful than then and more rogue states have them.
My feeling (maybe partly due to the time since the 60's) is that back then our leaders were scared of Nuclear Weapons and Mutually Assured Destruction. Today I'm not convinced Putin is. I have a suspicion he is so deluded by Russian military superiority he might think he can intercept all incoming threats.

That said I do recognise that whilst Russian media is somewhat "controlled", we are subject to propaganda in the West (despite us liking to think we are not).

Ian
My bold

Oh,without doubt.

What concerns me on a country level is that to "send a message" to the west and NATO,because Johnson is making a big point of arming Ukraine,Putin could,out of the blue,make a "localised" nuclear strike on a UK city.
I know that's an outside chance,some might find an impossibility,but we're dealing with a megalomaniac with such weapons at his disposal in a war situation.
It's a worrying possibility IMO.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
Mike Sales
Posts: 7883
Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Mike Sales »

Psamathe wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:28pm

Whilst I don't know the definition of "Rogue State",
Ian
Nor me.

Here is a list of nuclear armed states.

USA
Russia
China
UK
India
Pakistan
North Korea
Israel.

Not very reassuring, whether called rogue or not.
Two of them have recently fought each other.
Some have a record of invasions of other states.
Human rights are none too good in some.
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
LancsGirl
Posts: 255
Joined: 5 Jun 2021, 9:57pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by LancsGirl »

reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 3:19pm
mattheus wrote: 11 May 2022, 2:15pm
reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 1:29pm All that said humanity has never ever been in a more precarious position with abiliy to wipe out the planet's life form in a matter of weeks,maybe even days.
Even a smaller nuclear strike could leave the majority of humanity suffering and dying over a period of months or years.
That has barely changed since the 60s. That's before many members here were born.
You're probably right,but my understanding is that nuclear weapons are now more powerful than then and more rogue states have them.
The number of nuclear weapons has decreased massively since the peak in the 1980s, and still substantially since "the 60s" quoted above.
https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons
https://www.statista.com/chart/16305/st ... ead-count/

It is my understanding that yield has also decreased since then, due to increased accuracy, and the development of MIRVs:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_w ... ric%20ton.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_ ... ry_vehicle

But if you have better information about the historical yields, I'd be interested to hear it.

The frequent comparisons to Hiroshima, especially with regards to the Tsar Bombe (and similar) may sound frightening, but aren't particularly useful. The comparisons we should be making are to the times when nuclear weapons were a lot more widespread (than in1945). And it is clear that there are a great deal less of them. Comparisons about the destructive power based purely on yield are often made, which are very misleading.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TNT_equivalent
https://powercruncharchive.fandom.com/w ... are_Law.3F

Though it could be the inverse-cube law:

https://www.quora.com/Does-the-square-c ... ood-enough

I've got a memory that inverse-square applies to prompt gamma radiation and inverse-cube to explosive power. Or maybe the other way around.

Other, frankly hopeless, myths about nuclear war are propagated by nonsense such as "On The Beach". Radiation reduces over time, for some isotopes very quickly:

https://training.fema.gov/emiweb/downloads/is3unit4.pdf

See page 4-13 for the "7-10" rule. It is thought that if you can shelter in place for two weeks (7 hours cubed) radiation from fallout will be 1/1000th of the initial fallout radiation. So maybe safe enough to venture outside. Of course that depends on weather patterns, amount of fall-out, etc. etc.

The inaccurate, and frequently downright wrong, ideas and myths about nuclear weapons is something that Putin is counting on. Whilst at the same time knowing that many countries in the former Soviet Union have at least some nuclear preparedness, compared to "Western" nations, most of which have shamefully done nothing to prepare their populations for nuclear war.

One myth is that the current stockpile of nuclear weapons if launched would wipe out the entire world. It wouldn't. At an average yield of 400KT, the area of destruction of a nuclear bomb is about 100 square miles. If 12,000 weapons were all delivered at the same time, accurately and to separate targets, and they all detonated successfully, that would give a devastated area of 1,200,000 square miles. The land surface of the earth is 57,000,000 square miles. Nobody really knows what would happen in the event of a full scale nuclear war, because there hasn't been one, thankfully. But:

1. The total stockpile quoted includes many weapons in the process of decommissioning. It is likely that nothing like the total stockpile could be launched. There are doubts about the launch-readiness of many nuclear systems. Particularly the Russian ones. After all, if they can't be bothered to keep their tanks and APCs properly maintained, equipment they are very likely to need to use, why would anybody bothering looking after the nukes? Better to pocket the money (widespread corruption in the Russian armed forces) on the basis that if it gets as far as having to launch them your life is over anyway.

2. Nuclear weapons wouldn't be targeted evenly. They would probably be concentrated to do the most damage to military targets. Which involves ground bursts. Ground bursts produce destructive effects over a smaller area than air bursts, but produce more fall out.

I would advise all interested people to arm themselves with some facts and make necessary preparations. Despite it being fairly old, and slightly poorly presented, Kearney's book remains a very useful resource, and is a free download.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_W ... val_Skills
Mike Sales
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Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Mike Sales »

How I learned to stop worrying and love the Bomb."
or
In the event of nuclear war put your head between your legs and kiss your buttock goodbye."
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
reohn2
Posts: 45159
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

Lancs Girl
I'm going with Mike's analogy.
In other words,if the button is pushed and the UK is the target and we don't stop it midflight we're are fooked,if we do stop it midflight someone could be!

We can look at the possibilities and predictions,but the human race has some truly awesome power at it's finger tips which means there's no winners.
We can also look at the possibility that because of that it won't happen,but when a seemingly meglomanic madman has the destruction of the world,or at least a large part of it,at hand,I get worried!

That said,thanks for the reassurance.
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
rualexander
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Joined: 2 Jul 2007, 9:47pm
Contact:

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by rualexander »

LancsGirl wrote: 11 May 2022, 4:30pm

One myth is that the current stockpile of nuclear weapons if launched would wipe out the entire world. It wouldn't. At an average yield of 400KT, the area of destruction of a nuclear bomb is about 100 square miles. If 12,000 weapons were all delivered at the same time, accurately and to separate targets, and they all detonated successfully, that would give a devastated area of 1,200,000 square miles. The land surface of the earth is 57,000,000 square miles. Nobody really knows what would happen in the event of a full scale nuclear war, because there hasn't been one, thankfully.....
You've overlooked the 'nuclear winter' which would develop after such a massive nuclear exchange.
The majority of people and many other animals would perish from starvation as a result of freezing temperatures which would last several years. Life on Earth would continue and some small pockets of humanity might survive but it would be desperately unpleasant.
rualexander
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by rualexander »

Mike Sales wrote: 11 May 2022, 4:15pm

Here is a list of nuclear armed states.

USA
Russia
China
UK
India
Pakistan
North Korea
Israel.
You've missed out France
LancsGirl
Posts: 255
Joined: 5 Jun 2021, 9:57pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by LancsGirl »

rualexander wrote: 11 May 2022, 6:14pm
LancsGirl wrote: 11 May 2022, 4:30pm

One myth is that the current stockpile of nuclear weapons if launched would wipe out the entire world. It wouldn't. At an average yield of 400KT, the area of destruction of a nuclear bomb is about 100 square miles. If 12,000 weapons were all delivered at the same time, accurately and to separate targets, and they all detonated successfully, that would give a devastated area of 1,200,000 square miles. The land surface of the earth is 57,000,000 square miles. Nobody really knows what would happen in the event of a full scale nuclear war, because there hasn't been one, thankfully.....
You've overlooked the 'nuclear winter' which would develop after such a massive nuclear exchange.
The majority of people and many other animals would perish from starvation as a result of freezing temperatures which would last several years. Life on Earth would continue and some small pockets of humanity might survive but it would be desperately unpleasant.
You assert with great confidence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_w ... ear%20war.
LancsGirl
Posts: 255
Joined: 5 Jun 2021, 9:57pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by LancsGirl »

reohn2 wrote: 11 May 2022, 5:19pm Lancs Girl
I'm going with Mike's analogy.
In other words,if the button is pushed and the UK is the target and we don't stop it midflight we're are fooked,if we do stop it midflight someone could be!

We can look at the possibilities and predictions,but the human race has some truly awesome power at it's finger tips which means there's no winners.
We can also look at the possibility that because of that it won't happen,but when a seemingly meglomanic madman has the destruction of the world,or at least a large part of it,at hand,I get worried!

That said,thanks for the reassurance.
It's a shame you don't seem to have taken the time to investigate any of the links I gave.

Ah well, such is the internet, I suppose.
Mike Sales
Posts: 7883
Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Mike Sales »

rualexander wrote: 11 May 2022, 6:17pm
Mike Sales wrote: 11 May 2022, 4:15pm

Here is a list of nuclear armed states.

USA
Russia
China
UK
India
Pakistan
North Korea
Israel.
You've missed out France
You are of course right.
France went rogue and sank Rainbow Warrior, a Greenpeace boat, in Aukland harbour, killing a Portugese photographer.
Mossad assassinated an innocent Moroccan waiter in Norway.
Last edited by Mike Sales on 11 May 2022, 7:43pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
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