War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

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Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

RickH wrote: 2 Aug 2022, 9:03am
Mick F wrote: 1 Aug 2022, 2:44pm Bulk carrier leaving Odessa loaded with grain.
https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9086526
That'll be this one

BBC News - Ukraine war: First grain ship leaves under Russia deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62375580

Screenshot_20220802_090209_bbc.mobile.news.uk.jpg
Maybe it just shows what a cynic I am with regard to Russia's behaviour but given Russia's behaviour I was surprised until seeing the video of the vessel leaving on TV and ... now Russia knows the safe passage through the minefield.

Ian
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Mick F
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Mick F »

Razoni isn't through the Bosporus yet.
It has over 800miles to go, so it ain't going to get there for a couple of days. It certainly won't get there today as stated in the media.

https://www.vesselfinder.com/?imo=9086526
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UpWrong
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by UpWrong »

Psamathe wrote: 29 Jul 2022, 1:54pm Earlier on in the war many were being highly critical of Germany for continuing to buy Russia gas and in doing so "funding Putin's War". Yet now Putin is dramatically reducing the gas quantities he's selling to the West. Whilst what gas is being sold is being sold at a high price, in reducing the volume of gas flowing to Europe so much is Putin de-funding his own war? or were the accusations of Germany funding Putin's War somewhat overstated?

Is Putin make another strategic error and accelerating the damage to the Russian economy? Whilst the war might not be daily headline news, I can't see the West reducing support for Ukraine (arms, etc.)

Ian
The point of Putin cutting supplies to Europe is to sow disunity and break the Western alliance. That's more valuable to him than the roubles.
briansnail
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by briansnail »

Our cycling group was livid when Ukraine got invaded.We are doubly livid as Russia curbs gas exports.This means all of us face sky high bills and some business like pubs will go bust.
A small gesture .Any airline that still fly's in and out of Russia will be on our blacklist.They put profits above morals although a couple still do.As will be any tourist destinations that support this war by not condemning it.
DaveReading
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by DaveReading »

briansnail wrote: 29 Aug 2022, 6:25pmA small gesture .Any airline that still fly's in and out of Russia will be on our blacklist.
That's going to be a very short, albeit black, list.
Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

Psamathe wrote: 2 Aug 2022, 10:37am Maybe it just shows what a cynic I am with regard to Russia's behaviour but given Russia's behaviour I was surprised until seeing the video of the vessel leaving on TV and ... now Russia knows the safe passage through the minefield.
But the sinking of the Moskva showed that the Ukrainians have at least some effective anti-ship missiles (and maybe more now - the UK has sent them to Ukraine too). An invasion force charting its way through a minefield which is covered by anti-ship missiles is not an enticing prospect. Furthermore those Russian planes which were destroyed in a raid (missile attack?) in Crimea recently were associated with their Black Sea Fleet - so less air cover too?
Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

DaveReading wrote: 29 Aug 2022, 10:29pm
briansnail wrote: 29 Aug 2022, 6:25pmA small gesture .Any airline that still fly's in and out of Russia will be on our blacklist.
That's going to be a very short, albeit black, list.
I guess a fair number of British holidaymakers have flown to Turkey (or to give it it's proper name now Türkiye) using Turkish Airlines this year. Turkish Airlines is still flying to Russia.
pete75
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by pete75 »

Gazprom reports record profits and share value up 30%.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
briansnail
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by briansnail »

A leading newspaper said yesterday "You can fly with many airlines to Moscow seven times a day".Most airlines are not flying in.However others say unless they are told not to they will still fly in.These are poaching the passengers from airlines who operate to sanctions.
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al_yrpal
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by al_yrpal »

Had a long talk with a Polish guy today. He had recently returned from the Ukraine where he had experienced Russian shelling. He said that Poles fear Putin being replaced by someone who will redouble efforts to suceed where Putin failed and escalate the war way beyond where it is now to gain credence and support. This would inevitably involve other nations.

Al
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Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

al_yrpal wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 4:37pm Had a long talk with a Polish guy today. He had recently returned from the Ukraine where he had experienced Russian shelling. He said that Poles fear Putin being replaced by someone who will redouble efforts to suceed where Putin failed and escalate the war way beyond where it is now to gain credence and support. This would inevitably involve other nations.
...
Whilst I have no knowledge of Kremlin personnel, etc. I'd expect if Putin is removed against his will then whoever takes over will have to adopt the "Putin was quite wrong to do this". To be involved in getting rid of Putin and they say his actions were right would be something of a contradiction.

Ian
Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

Psamathe wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 5:47pm Whilst I have no knowledge of Kremlin personnel, etc. I'd expect if Putin is removed against his will then whoever takes over will have to adopt the "Putin was quite wrong to do this". To be involved in getting rid of Putin and they say his actions were right would be something of a contradiction.
Not at all, from the off there have been hardline nationalists who think Putin should have declared war, which allows mobilisation and gone in harder. Someone who is more extreme than Putin can easily be envisaged.

The issue for nationalists now of course is that Russia has now expended a lot of trained men and materiel, there's no element of surprise and cash flows into the country are dwindling. I read earlier today that even at best it will take Putin three months to recreate sufficient forces to go on the offensive in Ukraine. That won't change even if you're a hardline nationalist.
Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

AA11ZrUX.jpg
AA11ZrUX.jpg (29.49 KiB) Viewed 377 times
American cartoon - like that the reference is Monty Python...
slowster
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by slowster »

Ben@Forest wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 5:55pm
Psamathe wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 5:47pm Whilst I have no knowledge of Kremlin personnel, etc. I'd expect if Putin is removed against his will then whoever takes over will have to adopt the "Putin was quite wrong to do this". To be involved in getting rid of Putin and they say his actions were right would be something of a contradiction.
Not at all, from the off there have been hardline nationalists who think Putin should have declared war, which allows mobilisation and gone in harder. Someone who is more extreme than Putin can easily be envisaged.

The issue for nationalists now of course is that Russia has now expended a lot of trained men and materiel, there's no element of surprise and cash flows into the country are dwindling. I read earlier today that even at best it will take Putin three months to recreate sufficient forces to go on the offensive in Ukraine. That won't change even if you're a hardline nationalist.
The former KGB colleagues of Putin from St Petersburg who hold the senior positions in Putin's administration ('siloviki') will be focused on staying in power if Putin goes in the face of the war being lost. Continuing or re-starting the war with the current russian army would almost certainly result in further disastrous defeats which would result in their losing power.

What would be more likely is that they would switch from demonising an external enemy (Ukraine) to internal enemies. Having lost a war that has shattered the myth of russian military power, many will be looking for people to blame, and those are the conditions where fascist politicians and their supporters, such as those hardline nationalists, will seek to deflect the blame and anger from themselves towards minority outgroups. It is already possible to see the beginnings of a 'stabbed in the back' myth in the social media posts of some russian hardline bloggers and commentators.
Jdsk
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 5 Jul 2022, 6:17pm
Jdsk wrote: 28 Jun 2022, 8:28pm
Jdsk wrote: 16 May 2022, 8:28pm
"Turkey says it will not approve Sweden and Finland joining Nato":
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... kraine-war

I'd expect that to be manageable...
And it's just been managed:


Screenshot 2022-06-28 at 20.27.44.png
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/statu ... 8347058176
"NATO Ambassadors signed the Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden at NATO Headquarters on Tuesday (5 July 2022)... "

"Last week at the Madrid Summit, Allied leaders agreed to invite Finland and Sweden to join NATO following the agreement of a trilateral memorandum between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden."


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197763.htm
"We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO - address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy":
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/mi ... rayi-78173

Jonathan
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