War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

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UpWrong
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by UpWrong »

Jdsk wrote: 25 Jan 2023, 10:59am NB date.

Germany has officially stated that they will supply tanks and allow other countries with Leopards to do the same.

I wish this had happened earlier, but it's now starting. And I expect it to unlock other support.

Jonathan
Yes, should haver happened sooner. It may take a while for the tanks to get there. Russia's cries of "Escalation" are risible given their unwarranted invasion and continual barbaric escalations.

How about if we send a peace-keeping force to guard the border with Belarus and allow the Ukranian forces to focus on the east and south of their country?
Carlton green
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Carlton green »

UpWrong wrote: 25 Jan 2023, 12:24pm
Jdsk wrote: 25 Jan 2023, 10:59am NB date.

Germany has officially stated that they will supply tanks and allow other countries with Leopards to do the same.

I wish this had happened earlier, but it's now starting. And I expect it to unlock other support.

Jonathan
Yes, should haver happened sooner. It may take a while for the tanks to get there. Russia's cries of "Escalation" are risible given their unwarranted invasion and continual barbaric escalations.

How about if we send a peace-keeping force to guard the border with Belarus and allow the Ukranian forces to focus on the east and south of their country?
Maybe I’m completely wrong but sending such a peace-keeping force doesn’t seem very sensible to me - too close to throwing lighted matches into a box of fireworks. NATO seems pretty clear about supporting Ukraine to slowly push Russia back whilst at the same time not provoking the use of Nuclear weapons, a rather difficult path to tread. More arms are flowing into Ukraine but the best quality ones and the longest range ones are, I suspect, being strategically held back.
Don’t fret, it’s OK to: ride a simple old bike; ride slowly, walk, rest and admire the view; ride off-road; ride in your raincoat; ride by yourself; ride in the dark; and ride one hundred yards or one hundred miles. Your bike and your choices to suit you.
reohn2
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

Jdsk wrote: 25 Jan 2023, 10:59am NB date.

Germany has officially stated that they will supply tanks and allow other countries with Leopards to do the same.

I wish this had happened earlier, but it's now starting. And I expect it to unlock other support.

Jonathan
My bold.

Me too,let's hope it and other measures will drive the evil out of Ukraine,and we'll see Putin deposed.
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Carlton green
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Carlton green »

reohn2 wrote: 25 Jan 2023, 2:43pm
Jdsk wrote: 25 Jan 2023, 10:59am NB date.

Germany has officially stated that they will supply tanks and allow other countries with Leopards to do the same.

I wish this had happened earlier, but it's now starting. And I expect it to unlock other support.

Jonathan
My bold.

Me too,let's hope it and other measures will drive the evil out of Ukraine,and we'll see Putin deposed.
We’ll have to see what the future brings. So far NATO has kept its powder dry, perhaps both in case of and to avoid an escalation, and allowed the Russian military to significantly weaken itself. The mood in Russia has become anti-war too. If this horrid war had ended earlier then Putin might have been triggered to let off a Nuke, the Russian Army would have been stronger (and capable of invading somewhere again) and the negativity of the Russian people towards invasion of other countries wouldn’t have had a chance to develop.

In a choice between too truly dreadful situations would an earlier end really have resulted in the better resolution? Of the two miserable paths I’m inclined to think that the better one has been chosen and anticipate that Russia will retreat behind the bulk of its borders by the end of this year. As for Putin be careful what you wish for, it’s not at all impossible to get someone even worse and we need look no further than the 1930’s to see what can happen in earlier defeated nations.
Don’t fret, it’s OK to: ride a simple old bike; ride slowly, walk, rest and admire the view; ride off-road; ride in your raincoat; ride by yourself; ride in the dark; and ride one hundred yards or one hundred miles. Your bike and your choices to suit you.
reohn2
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

Carlton green wrote: 25 Jan 2023, 3:55pm
We’ll have to see what the future brings.
Something no one really knows,especially with a megalomaniac dictator such as Putin
So far NATO has kept its powder dry, perhaps both in case of and to avoid an escalation, and allowed the Russian military to significantly weaken itself
Agreed,though it has had a hand in the supply of weapons to the sovereign Ukainian state if only by individual member states
The mood in Russia has become anti-war too
It certainly seems to be getting that way by the day,thankfully.
If this horrid war had ended earlier then Putin might have been triggered to let off a Nuke, the Russian Army would have been stronger (and capable of invading somewhere again) and the negativity of the Russian people towards invasion of other countries wouldn’t have had a chance to develop
Pure speculation.
In a choice between too truly dreadful situations would an earlier end really have resulted in the better resolution?

Who knows?
Of the two miserable paths I’m inclined to think that the better one has been chosen and anticipate that Russia will retreat behind the bulk of its borders by the end of this year. As for Putin be careful what you wish for, it’s not at all impossible to get someone even worse and we need look no further than the 1930’s to see what can happen in earlier defeated nations.
Possibly but the way Putin and Russia have handled this war has shown the Russian military leadership and regular army up for what it is,an incompetent bunch of ill equipped moronic rabble who's remit seems to be to rampage,thieve,murder,torture and rape civilians as they see fit.
Russia has rapidly become the world's pariah state along with a couple of other similar pitiful countries around the world that side with them.
As for the nukes,if they're as incompetently built as their other military hardware they may not fire or even be as numerous as claimed or may even explode in their bunkers causing more damage to Russians than their targets,though I would like to put them to the test.

What we're seeing IMO is the bear being tamed.

As for the Wagner rabble they should be hunted down like the dogs they are and either executed of imprisoned for life IMO.

Edited for clarity
Last edited by reohn2 on 25 Jan 2023, 6:04pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Jdsk
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 25 Jan 2023, 10:59amGermany has officially stated that they will supply tanks and allow other countries with Leopards to do the same.

I wish this had happened earlier, but it's now starting. And I expect it to unlock other support.
31 M1 Abrams from the USA.

Jonathan

PS: "List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_f ... ainian_War
Stevek76
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Stevek76 »

Actual official NATO country boots on ground would probably be an unhelpful provocation. Not sure it's actually necessary either. Russia will struggle to mount any sort of serious invasion from belarus without sacrificing the fronts within ukraine.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Jdsk
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

"Could a Russian Military Collapse Lead to Nuclear War?":
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... uclear-war

"Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has suggested that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has dismissed the idea as nonsense. So what would happen if the Russian army mutinied or collapsed?"

Yet another excellent paper from RUSI.

It puts a lot of emphasis on the appropriate messages from the Western allies to Russia.

Jonathan
briansnail
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by briansnail »

Russia should be held responsible for reparations to Ukraine.The poor Ukrainians have no power water and their homes are destroyed.
The Kremlin attacks UK USA and Germany for sending in Challengers and Leopards Abrams .Good send more.
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Biospace
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Biospace »

briansnail wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 1:23pm Russia should be held responsible for reparations to Ukraine.The poor Ukrainians have no power water and their homes are destroyed.
I agree, just as the US should have been held responsible for reparations to the Vietnamese.

Jdsk wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 10:58am "Could a Russian Military Collapse Lead to Nuclear War?":
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... uclear-war

"Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has suggested that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has dismissed the idea as nonsense. So what would happen if the Russian army mutinied or collapsed?"

Yet another excellent paper from RUSI.

It puts a lot of emphasis on the appropriate messages from the Western allies to Russia.

Jonathan
Thank you for the link, it is very worthwhile reading and a reminder that effective, clear communication is vital on both sides. The more democratic nature of The West has at times led to less than clear signals, down the years. Hopefully this war has sharpened our thinking and our actions.
Carlton green
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Carlton green »

Jdsk wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 10:58am "Could a Russian Military Collapse Lead to Nuclear War?":
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... uclear-war

"Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has suggested that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has dismissed the idea as nonsense. So what would happen if the Russian army mutinied or collapsed?"

Yet another excellent paper from RUSI.

It puts a lot of emphasis on the appropriate messages from the Western allies to Russia.

Jonathan
Yes, thank you for that link; an interesting article. My suspicion is that Western leaders are already well up that particular ‘curve’ or ‘road’ and - external to Ukraine - military leaders are looking towards a suitably slow and steady push back of Russian forces. What happens about Crimea is a really tough question, it should be returned to Ukraine but there’s a pragmatic case for letting the Russians have their historical gift back. Rubbing someone’s nose in the dirt is bound to end up leaving a grudge and better Putin’s Russia than some of the alternatives.
Don’t fret, it’s OK to: ride a simple old bike; ride slowly, walk, rest and admire the view; ride off-road; ride in your raincoat; ride by yourself; ride in the dark; and ride one hundred yards or one hundred miles. Your bike and your choices to suit you.
DaveReading
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by DaveReading »

Carlton green wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 3:16pm
Jdsk wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 10:58am "Could a Russian Military Collapse Lead to Nuclear War?":
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... uclear-war

"Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has suggested that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has dismissed the idea as nonsense. So what would happen if the Russian army mutinied or collapsed?"

Yet another excellent paper from RUSI.

It puts a lot of emphasis on the appropriate messages from the Western allies to Russia.

Jonathan
Yes, thank you for that link; an interesting article. My suspicion is that Western leaders are already well up that particular ‘curve’ or ‘road’ and - external to Ukraine - military leaders are looking towards a suitably slow and steady push back of Russian forces. What happens about Crimea is a really tough question, it should be returned to Ukraine but there’s a pragmatic case for letting the Russians have their historical gift back. Rubbing someone’s nose in the dirt is bound to end up leaving a grudge and better Putin’s Russia than some of the alternatives.
Regardless of whether the Russians get to keep Crimea, there is no way Putin could survive if they were driven out of the rest of Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
Biospace
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Biospace »

DaveReading wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 5:09pm Regardless of whether the Russians get to keep Crimea, there is no way Putin could survive if they were driven out of the rest of Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
I wonder to what extent, if any, the Russian public mood has an effect on decision made regarding the leadership. Is it important for the West to maintain good levels of Russian scepticism regarding Putin's invasion?
reohn2
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by reohn2 »

Thanks for the link Jonathan,interesting article,Crimea is the stickler for Russia.
I think Putin knows a nuclear war means there's no winners,the Russian army has lost it's impetus and had it's nose badly blooded,the threat to the west over the tanks issue shows Putin is on the ropes,his army is being layed to waste,his people are turning against him and his war,all he has left is threats.
The best way to deal with a threatening bully is to take him to task which is what the Ukrain army is doing with our help,Putin is a cockroach that needs stamping on!
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
Carlton green
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Carlton green »

DaveReading wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 5:09pm
Carlton green wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 3:16pm
Jdsk wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 10:58am "Could a Russian Military Collapse Lead to Nuclear War?":
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... uclear-war

"Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has suggested that a Russian defeat in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has dismissed the idea as nonsense. So what would happen if the Russian army mutinied or collapsed?"

Yet another excellent paper from RUSI.

It puts a lot of emphasis on the appropriate messages from the Western allies to Russia.

Jonathan
Yes, thank you for that link; an interesting article. My suspicion is that Western leaders are already well up that particular ‘curve’ or ‘road’ and - external to Ukraine - military leaders are looking towards a suitably slow and steady push back of Russian forces. What happens about Crimea is a really tough question, it should be returned to Ukraine but there’s a pragmatic case for letting the Russians have their historical gift back. Rubbing someone’s nose in the dirt is bound to end up leaving a grudge and better Putin’s Russia than some of the alternatives.
Regardless of whether the Russians get to keep Crimea, there is no way Putin could survive if they were driven out of the rest of Ukraine, particularly the Donbas.
We’ll really have to see what happens. Looking back at conflicts over recent decades I see that the removal of one bad dictator or ruler very often leads to their replacement by someone worse ie. not all change leads to better outcomes. Putin is no longer a young man, if he remained in power then there’s a chance that democracy might be positioned to fill the void when he dies. If he’s replaced now then it will almost certainly be by a younger iron man who has no interest in democracy. There’s always a bigger picture and indeed there’s a case for the West holding their nose and providing peace keeping (stability) support to an eventually defeated Putin.
Don’t fret, it’s OK to: ride a simple old bike; ride slowly, walk, rest and admire the view; ride off-road; ride in your raincoat; ride by yourself; ride in the dark; and ride one hundred yards or one hundred miles. Your bike and your choices to suit you.
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