War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

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Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

Stevek76 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 6:34pm If there's perhaps one trend here then it's that it's the less democratic states that seem to like to do warmongering (i do not consider UK/US to be particularly democratic for clarity)
But people clamour for military interventions by democratic countries that actually have armed forces which are globally deployable. The US, the UK and France are unusual that they have such forces, most countries do not.

So at some junctures there is a clamour, then later it may even be criticised by the same people. Libya is a case in point, was it right for the UK and France to intervene in 2011 when there was an uprising? I don't know - but if Gaddafi had subsequently killed 100,000 people we'd be asking why we hadn't intervened.

And Syria; Cameron (leading a coalition) put a decision on intervention through Parliament. He and Clegg involved Ed Miliband in discussions about intervention prior to the debate. Cameron thought Miliband was going to support an intervention but got his MPs to vote against it and was accused of "playing politics". Without the UK other major players did not intervene either - so Russia filled the vacuum - was that a better outcome?

Not that long ago Nick Robinson interviewed Ed Miliband and asked about this. Miliband was tight-lipped about whether he'd made the right decision.
pete75
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by pete75 »

Stevek76 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 6:34pm Highest figure for Iraq is around 1m. These things tend to get quite tricky when dealing with indirect deaths and counterfactuals. Undoubtedly though NATO (mostly Bush & Blair) have a huge amount of blood on their hands

In can't find any as high as 400k for Afghanistan, 150-200k seems a more common number.

Chechnya can perhaps be argued as not an invasion, though yes Putin's tactic of levelling cities is barbaric. He can however pick up a fair few of Syria's 300-600k where he has been using the same tactic. Still I'd suggest the Bush/Blair combo still are in the overall lead though.
pete75 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 5:14pm Taiwan you mean? Well it calls itself the Republic of China, so shouldn't have any objections to becoming part of China.
Republic of, not dictatorship of which I'd imagine is a key concern for its inhabitants. At any rate, they already consider themselves part of China, they just disagree over who's in charge.

If there's perhaps one trend here then it's that it's the less democratic states that seem to like to do warmongering (i do not consider UK/US to be particularly democratic for clarity)
Both more democratic than the Ukraine though.
I don't particularly care how the government of a country is chosen as long as it governs in the best interests of the whole population. What has developed here into five yearly, or less, popularity competition may not necessarily be the best way, though I've no idea what is.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
Mike Sales
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Mike Sales »

It occurs to me that there is an island off the coast of Europe where many of the inhabitants strongly object to any amalgamation with the mainland!
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
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horizon
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by horizon »

pete75 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 5:23pm I doubt it. There are estimates of up to 600,000 deaths caused directly or indirectly by the UK/US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
I think you are preaching to the converted. There were (according to some reports) about 1 million people on the Stop the War march in London in 2003 (in Moscow, about 400 people demonstrated). The march of course did nothing but I think few people now are defending the invasion. I would imagine there is currently or will be in the future the same sentiment in Russia.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
DaveReading
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by DaveReading »

pete75 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 2:26pmIt's a shame really that Russia has proved so powerless. It means the USA and NATO will be able to force their collective will on the world. Remember they've invaded more nations and killed more innocent people in the last 25 years than anyone else.
Could you remind me which countries NATO has invaded, please ?
Stevek76
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Stevek76 »

Ben@Forest wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 7:35pm But people clamour
Do they, really? I'm sure some do but is it actually a majority of the country in these cases? I don't recall so from the polling at the time.
And Syria; Cameron (leading a coalition) put a decision on intervention through Parliament. He and Clegg involved Ed Miliband in discussions about intervention prior to the debate. Cameron thought Miliband was going to support an intervention but got his MPs to vote against it and was accused of "playing politics". Without the UK other major players did not intervene either - so Russia filled the vacuum - was that a better outcome?
All Cameron was proposing to do was chuck a few cruise missiles at various Syrian military assets in order to 'punish' Assad for the chemical weapons attack. There was never any suggestion of large scale involvement so no way this would have changed the current outcome.
pete75 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 7:52pm Both more democratic than the Ukraine though.
I was thinking specifically regarding voting systems and the ease of obtaining dominant executive power and under that criteria, not really.
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UpWrong
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by UpWrong »

pete75 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 7:52pm Both more democratic than the Ukraine though.
I don't particularly care how the government of a country is chosen as long as it governs in the best interests of the whole population. What has developed here into five yearly, or less, popularity competition may not necessarily be the best way, though I've no idea what is.
In what way is Ukraine undemocratic?
Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

Stevek76 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 9:40pm All Cameron was proposing to do was chuck a few cruise missiles at various Syrian military assets in order to 'punish' Assad for the chemical weapons attack. There was never any suggestion of large scale involvement so no way this would have changed the current outcome.
Really? From The Guardian in 2018

Waiting reporters fully expected a declaration of imminent US action. But Obama blinked. He announced the US would not attack the Assad regime – not yet, anyway. Instead, he would first seek authorisation from Congress.

Obama’s decision surprised even his close advisers. It appeared to have been influenced by an unexpected vote in the House of Commons two days earlier, on 29 August, when David Cameron’s plan to order British forces to join allied military action in Syria was blocked by a narrow margin.


I have also read this somwhere in an American text (possibly Obama: The Call of History - I've certainly read it), so the idea the British parliamentary vote was of no significance is far from the truth.
Stevek76
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Stevek76 »

I meant the resulting action wouldn't have done much. Looking at news articles from the time there is little suggestion that it would have been anything more than a somewhat grander version of the 2018 strikes. There did not appear to be any indication of major military action that might have influenced the end results.

And even if it somehow had, do you really think a nascent barely functional democratic government was going to survive with the simultaneous issues of deash and a deposed but still very powerful (and likely getting Russian backing for insurgent actions) alawite group? At best it'd be another iraq/Afghanistan which is likely why there was limited appetite for it amongst the public (contrast to support for Ukraine). People were done with the Blair style fantasy thinking that you can waltz in and make everything better with zero comprehension of the local political landscape or any long term exit plan.

As for Obama, if the leader of that opposition of a country a sixth of the size has that sort of influence on the leader of the world's largest economy and military force then the implication is more that Obama was very far from committed to the idea.
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pete75
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by pete75 »

UpWrong wrote: 17 Apr 2023, 11:45am
pete75 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 7:52pm Both more democratic than the Ukraine though.
I don't particularly care how the government of a country is chosen as long as it governs in the best interests of the whole population. What has developed here into five yearly, or less, popularity competition may not necessarily be the best way, though I've no idea what is.
In what way is Ukraine undemocratic?
It's rated as a hybrid regime in the world democracy index. This has four ratings, in descending order of democracy, Full Democracy, Flawed Democracy, Hybrid Regime and Authoritarian regime.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
pwa
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by pwa »

pete75 wrote: 18 Apr 2023, 9:55am
UpWrong wrote: 17 Apr 2023, 11:45am
pete75 wrote: 16 Apr 2023, 7:52pm Both more democratic than the Ukraine though.
I don't particularly care how the government of a country is chosen as long as it governs in the best interests of the whole population. What has developed here into five yearly, or less, popularity competition may not necessarily be the best way, though I've no idea what is.
In what way is Ukraine undemocratic?
It's rated as a hybrid regime in the world democracy index. This has four ratings, in descending order of democracy, Full Democracy, Flawed Democracy, Hybrid Regime and Authoritarian regime.
And that is probably a result of being de-stablised by violent acts, threats, interference and coercion from Russia since independence.
pete75
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by pete75 »

pwa wrote: 18 Apr 2023, 10:17am
pete75 wrote: 18 Apr 2023, 9:55am
UpWrong wrote: 17 Apr 2023, 11:45am
In what way is Ukraine undemocratic?
It's rated as a hybrid regime in the world democracy index. This has four ratings, in descending order of democracy, Full Democracy, Flawed Democracy, Hybrid Regime and Authoritarian regime.
And that is probably a result of being de-stablised by violent acts, threats, interference and coercion from Russia since independence.
No, it's been like that in those ratings for years now. Strange how some think the Ukraine can do no wrong. The Ukraine suffers just as much from it's own oligarchs, gangsters and Mafias as does Russia.
On another point, so much for Eatsern European solidarity. Poland and Hungary have banne dthe import of many Ukrainian agricultural products including garin. Poland won't even allow the goods to transit the country to places like Germany.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
pwa
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by pwa »

pete75 wrote: 18 Apr 2023, 11:15am
pwa wrote: 18 Apr 2023, 10:17am
pete75 wrote: 18 Apr 2023, 9:55am

It's rated as a hybrid regime in the world democracy index. This has four ratings, in descending order of democracy, Full Democracy, Flawed Democracy, Hybrid Regime and Authoritarian regime.
And that is probably a result of being de-stablised by violent acts, threats, interference and coercion from Russia since independence.
No, it's been like that in those ratings for years now. Strange how some think the Ukraine can do no wrong. The Ukraine suffers just as much from it's own oligarchs, gangsters and Mafias as does Russia.
Do you remember, as I do, a Ukrainian President being the victim of poisoning by Russian agents? This has been going on for two decades. And the Russian-backed military attacks in the east of Ukraine, which has been going on for quite a while. It would have been astonishing if Ukraine had managed to progress to a full and open democracy under these conditions. Added to which we have the fact that Ukraine has emerged from the USSR with its traditions of strong authoritarian government tolerating no dissent. I see more potential for a real democracy in a free Ukraine than I do in Russia at the moment.
Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

pete75 wrote: 18 Apr 2023, 11:15am ...
On another point, so much for Eatsern European solidarity. Poland and Hungary have banne dthe import of many Ukrainian agricultural products including garin. Poland won't even allow the goods to transit the country to places like Germany.
In fairness to Poland & Hungary, this seems about their own domestic agricultural sector rather than "solidarity" with Ukraine. According to reports I've seen they have enough of the blocked products from their domestic sources and the Ukrainian imports are badly impacting their framers as the price is dropping badly.

It is apparently a temporary ban whilst they find ways to address that Ukrainian exports seem to be staying in those countries rather than passing through. It's that the Ukrainian exports are not properly transiting that they are seeking to address.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65292698 wrote:He [Polish Economic Development and Technology Minister Waldemar Buda] called for talks with Ukraine to set up a scheme to ensure exports pass through Poland and do not end up on the local market.
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Biospace
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Biospace »

pete75 wrote: 18 Apr 2023, 11:15am Strange how some think the Ukraine can do no wrong. The Ukraine suffers just as much from it's own oligarchs, gangsters and Mafias as does Russia.
Not so strange, really. We are involved in a war, and so our media supports the side the UK supports and most believe the narrative offered by the TV, radio and newspapers. The same happened during Covid, which our PM insisted was 'war'.

The previous story offered by the BBC of Ukraine, before Crimea was taken by Russia, was of a corrupt society struggling with extreme right wing factions.
Last edited by Biospace on 18 Apr 2023, 11:48am, edited 1 time in total.
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