War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

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Biospace
Posts: 1990
Joined: 24 Jun 2019, 12:23pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Biospace »

Ben@Forest wrote: 2 May 2023, 3:17pm
Biospace wrote: 2 May 2023, 2:00pm For over a year I've been concerned that it's possible Western sanctions on Russia have been affecting the West more adversely than Russia.

Russian pensions, the country’s minimum wage and salaries are keeping pace with inflation better, its economy appears to be more than surviving and possibly better than those in the West. They also appear to have better control of inflation than we do.

Meanwhile, the EU purchases Russian fuel through Indian and North African intermediaries which both helps the Russian economy while further harming the West - according to highly reputable sources Morocco bought about 600,000 barrels of Russian diesel throughout 2021, which in January 2023 alone had increased to 2 million barrels with another 1.2 million barrels arriving in the country in February.

Furthermore, the bond between Russia and China appears to have been strengthened by our response.
You are taking nearly all of that information from Russian sources; multiple agencies have said that Russian information regarding its own finances and economy are unreliable. What's the evidence for the Sino-Russian bond growing stronger? The Chinese are still not arming the Russians, it looks like that what Putin was angling for and has not got. But the Chinese are happy to buy his oil at knock-down prices.

If you mean that that Reuters, MSN and Insider are using data which comes they source from Russia, then yes of course. If there are significant doubts regarding its validity then this will usually be mentioned (it's not in Reuters' interests to put out information which they doubt and is subsequently demonstrated to be false), and how a state measures cost price inflation, for example, will always be open to debate - as it is in the UK. In general, it wouldn't be in Putin's interest to falsify economic data as this would lead to further devaluing of Russian money.

The Chinese are not arming the Russians because it's not in their national interest to do so. But the moment two nations generate more bi-lateral trade, the more relations grow. The West has imposed multiple sanctions on Russia, so it has started trading more with other nations, including China. China has also had sanctions imposed on it by the West, so it's possible we're accidentally pushing the two nations closer. This is an interesting read, https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/how-chi ... -military/

We're in a very sticky mess and am very surprised at the lack of a push for peace.
Psamathe
Posts: 17616
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

I'm pretty naive about fighter jets (or rather don't know much about them) but I assume that being able to fly one e.g. attack jet does not mean you'd be completely effective at flying a completely different jet e.g. learn and train on a MiG-29 and then get a hurried introduction to an F-16.

Am I right in assuming it might take a fair time to cross train to be effective, particularly when up against Russian pilots who have had years of training and practice in their aircraft?

I appreciate that Ukraine getting Mig-29s (from those countries that have them e.g. Poland and Slovakia) makes sense as their pilots are familiar and have trained on them.

Am I right in assuming that extensive training in a specific fighter jet, practice, training, more practice, more training, etc. is crucial to getting the best from the aircraft? Or an I thinking too much of Battle of Britain dog fights?

It is a genuine question (not trying to make any point) as every time I hear about Ukraine wanting F-16s I question how effective they would be with them - but my lack of knowledge might mean I'm not forming a valid view.

Ian
Stevek76
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Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Stevek76 »

I don't think they specifically want f16s, but a country in Ukraine's situation going round with a begging bowl is realistically only getting the old stock of its allies. In this case that's going to mean f16s given the limited supply of old Soviet models.

In terms of switching, I'd think not quite 'extensive' (depending on how exactly you're defining that) for pilots with experience but really depends what the end goal of the training is timescale wise. If it's for use in this conflict then it'll necessarily have to be rather streamlined.

The best out of these jets is rather more about dealing with the avionics - using and interpreting the radar, the incoming radar warning system and so on. Dogfights, in theory at least (in reality not all that much modern jet combat has actually happened), are fairly uncommon and if short range IR missiles are involved then an su-27/35 very likely has the edge over the f16 should they actually get that close.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Psamathe
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Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

Stevek76 wrote: 16 May 2023, 8:03pm I don't think they specifically want f16s, but a country in Ukraine's situation going round with a begging bowl is realistically only getting the old stock of its allies. In this case that's going to mean f16s given the limited supply of old Soviet models....
They (Zelenskyy/Sunak/Reporter - can't remember which) were talking about wanting F-16s on TV the other night (the day he spent with Sunak) - which is why I mentioned F-16.

In terms of "extensive" training - I have no idea what I mean as I don't know enough about it. In the days I was flying gliders, switching to a different glider tended to involve a lot of going through stuff on ground, launch-fly down-land with a nervous instructor with a radio watching, limited to 1:10 distance from landing end of runway. But that was single seaters so they can't do much more as at some point you have to take-off (easy) and land. If there was a similar performing 2 seater you'd be in that for a bit first (e.g. to learn using flaps)

Ian
DaveReading
Posts: 742
Joined: 24 Feb 2019, 5:37pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by DaveReading »

Psamathe wrote: 16 May 2023, 5:33pm I'm pretty naive about fighter jets (or rather don't know much about them) but I assume that being able to fly one e.g. attack jet does not mean you'd be completely effective at flying a completely different jet e.g. learn and train on a MiG-29 and then get a hurried introduction to an F-16.

Am I right in assuming it might take a fair time to cross train to be effective, particularly when up against Russian pilots who have had years of training and practice in their aircraft?

I appreciate that Ukraine getting Mig-29s (from those countries that have them e.g. Poland and Slovakia) makes sense as their pilots are familiar and have trained on them.

Am I right in assuming that extensive training in a specific fighter jet, practice, training, more practice, more training, etc. is crucial to getting the best from the aircraft? Or an I thinking too much of Battle of Britain dog fights?

It is a genuine question (not trying to make any point) as every time I hear about Ukraine wanting F-16s I question how effective they would be with them - but my lack of knowledge might mean I'm not forming a valid view.
Converting a fast-jet pilot from one type to another takes a bit of time, but isn't really a big deal, particularly as much of the conversion training can take place in the simulator.
Stevek76
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Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Stevek76 »

My initial entirely non expert opinion would be agreement with that: A bit of a bigger jump between soviet & western jets that within them but the core systems/concepts are largely the same, the controls and symbology are just different. But I'm a puzzled how what the UK is offering fits into all this as that seems to be a sort of streamlined basic training that new RAF pilots go through. The UK also doesn't operate f16s - though may be able to provide simulator training I guess). Perhaps more about longer term new pilot training rather than conversions for existing?
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Jdsk
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Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

F-16

Mostly agreement with previous comments.

Rôle
This is the biggest uncertainty, predominantly because we don't know what Ukraine's allies want to achieve and how far they're prepared to go. But obvious rôles are continuation of the current denial of space for Russian air operations followed by contribution to offensive operation, including this spring. The F-16 isn't perfect for either of those, with the need for decent runways possibly being the biggest deficit, but it's very mature and very versatile. it's by far the best available.

Resources
There's a lot F-16s around, and a lot of expertise and support and training capacity. (In contrast to eg the fantasises around using Typhoons.) But the USA and nearly all NATO planning includes comparatively unrestrained rules of engagement and massive combined air operations such as surveillance and anti-radar offensives. We just don't know if those will be made available in Ukraine.

Training
Yes, a few months for an existing military pilot. But the more integrated the operations and the greater the range of weapons deployed the more time is needed. The flying is a lot easier than the mission management. It does sound as if training on simulators has started in the UK. And, as above, there are a lot of F-16 operators out there. And a large number of experienced pilots who could act as trainers, volunteers and mercenaries.

Jonathan
briansnail
Posts: 805
Joined: 1 Sep 2019, 3:07pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by briansnail »

F16 only good for spares now.Needs runway.Best jet is Saab Gripen but short supply.
If Ukraine does lose just keep up the sanctions.
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Jdsk
Posts: 24478
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Yes, the Gripen could work well.

RUSI: "The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence":
https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air- ... -final.pdf

Jonathan
DaveReading
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Joined: 24 Feb 2019, 5:37pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by DaveReading »

The USA does, of course, have an absolute veto on any F-16s from any air arm being transferred to Ukraine. So far, Biden is exercising that veto.
Jdsk
Posts: 24478
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 17 May 2023, 12:43pm F-16

Mostly agreement with previous comments.

Rôle
This is the biggest uncertainty, predominantly because we don't know what Ukraine's allies want to achieve and how far they're prepared to go. But obvious rôles are continuation of the current denial of space for Russian air operations followed by contribution to offensive operation, including this spring. The F-16 isn't perfect for either of those, with the need for decent runways possibly being the biggest deficit, but it's very mature and very versatile. it's by far the best available.

Resources
There's a lot F-16s around, and a lot of expertise and support and training capacity. (In contrast to eg the fantasises around using Typhoons.) But the USA and nearly all NATO planning includes comparatively unrestrained rules of engagement and massive combined air operations such as surveillance and anti-radar offensives. We just don't know if those will be made available in Ukraine.

Training
Yes, a few months for an existing military pilot. But the more integrated the operations and the greater the range of weapons deployed the more time is needed. The flying is a lot easier than the mission management. It does sound as if training on simulators has started in the UK. And, as above, there are a lot of F-16 operators out there. And a large number of experienced pilots who could act as trainers, volunteers and mercenaries.
Something's changed in Washington:

Supply:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... -zelensky/

Training:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ts-ukraine

Jonathan
Tangled Metal
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Joined: 13 Feb 2015, 8:32pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Tangled Metal »

Uk don't operate f16s but the training they offer is integration into western systems. Aiui Ukraine is in need of switching from soviet / Eastern systems to Western systems for obvious reasons. Long game might be to get them ready to integrate with NATO, not necessarily as a full member but for defence they need to be fitted into western military systems.

UK could help to train in tactics, integration with other services, etc. The western approach, aoui, is about different services working closely. Artillery embedded in special forces, soldiers calling in strikes direct with aircraft or similar. It's not just about tech but use and integration of tech for defined goals. We're a long way from from the level of integration of everyone over the top with a whistle!
Psamathe
Posts: 17616
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

Re: The F-16s
I've been wondering if the West" is still sort of dragging its feet a bit with the F-16 issue. Maybe in the hope it will all be over by the time Ukraine is actually in a position to take any F-16s. What started me thinking is Sunak talking about UK starting training this summer - hardly a rapid response to a war need.

Ian
Stevek76
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Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Stevek76 »

Summer starts in a little over a week...
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Jdsk
Posts: 24478
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Training has started in Poland:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global ... announces/

(As upthread I suspect that training started some time ago... )

Jonathan
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