War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

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DaveReading
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by DaveReading »

Carlton green wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 4:27pmIt’s about time that NATO supplied the Ukrainians with some better artillery to fire much further into enemy held territory.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but NATO hasn't supplied the Ukrainians with any weaponry.
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horizon
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by horizon »

Carlton green wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 4:27pm
Ecclestone’s stance is interesting and yes he does live in a different world than the rest of us.
It's one of my bugbears that we let Americanisms slip into our language without so much as a second glance. But heyho, theirs is the dominant culture and so I have to let it go. Our media is heavily influenced by American thought and political views and so inevitably is our language. But to say that the British have an independent and well-informed view of the current situation would I think be wrong.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
Jdsk
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

horizon wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 6:00pm
Carlton green wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 4:27pm Ecclestone’s stance is interesting and yes he does live in a different world than the rest of us.
It's one of my bugbears that we let Americanisms slip into our language without much of a second glance. But heyho, theirs is the dominant culture and so I have to let it go. Our media is heavily influenced by American thought and political views and so inevitably is our language.
...
You don't have to let it go... it's a very interesting point.

See you in the usage thread? : - )
viewtopic.php?p=1705150#p1705150

Jonathan
Last edited by Jdsk on 1 Jul 2022, 6:12pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

Carlton green wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 4:27pm It’s about time that NATO supplied the Ukrainians with some better artillery to fire much further into enemy held territory. We’re sitting on our hands and letting Russia win.
Yesterday the Telegraph ran a story about Ukrainian troops on Salisbury Plain being trained to use the L119 105mm gun and the tracked MLRS. We are then providing Ukraine with both.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... RWD0tv_w_i
Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

Ben@Forest wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 6:07pm
Carlton green wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 4:27pm It’s about time that NATO supplied the Ukrainians with some better artillery to fire much further into enemy held territory. We’re sitting on our hands and letting Russia win.
Yesterday the Telegraph ran a story about Ukrainian troops on Salisbury Plain being trained to use the L119 105mm gun and the tracked MLRS. We are then providing Ukraine with both.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... RWD0tv_w_i
But NATO are not providing the training and weapons, the UK Government is. Just as the US Gov. is providing weapons, etc., etc. Question was being raised about NATO providing weapons to Ukraine.

Ian
Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

The other aspect to consider when looking at help being given to Ukraine is not necessarily the bottom line numbers. Johnson loves quoting him amount as it makes him look good but smaller countries with smaller GDPs will never be able to match e.g. the US in numbers but e.g. in terms of help given in relation to GDP Estonia and Latvia are being most generous, UK is 11th. Also, EU is making contributions as well as EU member states so whilst France's contributions may look small, add in their portion of EU contributions and as a %age of GDP they've given more than the UK.

Ian
slowster
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by slowster »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 6:32pm whilst France's contributions may look small, add in their portion of EU contributions and as a %age of GDP they've given more than the UK.
Firstly, would you please provide some evidence/source for your claim.

Secondly, the US and UK supplied a lot of weapons and equipment, such as anti-tank weapons, before the invasion. In fact the US and UK together with a few other countries, such as Canada, have been providing support and training to the Ukrainian military for some years following the Crimean invasion and Russia's proxy war in the Donbas. In part these were done to help the Ukrainians be strong enough to deter the Russians from launching their invasion, and if the Russians had exercised better judgement the assistance provided by the UK and other would have contributed to Russia deciding not to invade.

France and other countries only provided support after the invasion, and that has only happened because the Ukrainians were able to put up such incredible initial resistance, partly thanks to the help already given by the US and UK. France and Germany only stepped up the plate once it was clear that Ukraine was holding its own against the Russian forces.

Thirdly, France has in fact contributed even more than you note, except that that those contributions have been in the form of weapons sales to the Russians. Numerous photographs of the interior of Russian tanks captured by the Ukrainians show them fitted with Thales thermal sights, a key component of the tank's effectiveness. Ukrainian soldiers whose comrades have been killed and wounded by russian tank fire, might understandably not view France quite so positively.
Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

slowster wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 8:02pm
Psamathe wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 6:32pm whilst France's contributions may look small, add in their portion of EU contributions and as a %age of GDP they've given more than the UK.
Firstly, would you please provide some evidence/source for your claim.
...
csm_UST-Figure4-EN-v06_210d00a3c3.png
from https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-agai ... t-tracker/

Ian
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by slowster »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 8:16pm
slowster wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 8:02pm
Psamathe wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 6:32pm whilst France's contributions may look small, add in their portion of EU contributions and as a %age of GDP they've given more than the UK.
Firstly, would you please provide some evidence/source for your claim.
...
csm_UST-Figure4-EN-v06_210d00a3c3.png
from https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-agai ... t-tracker/
Fair enough. I note that the chart is for 'commitments'. Echoing my second point above, I would be more interested in what had already actually been delivered, rather than what had been pledged. A number of governments, not just Germany, have made very public announcements about what they are giving, and delivery has been far too slow - i.e. more Ukrainians die as a consequence - or even simply does not happen.
Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

slowster wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 8:48pm
Psamathe wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 8:16pm
slowster wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 8:02pm
Firstly, would you please provide some evidence/source for your claim.
...
csm_UST-Figure4-EN-v06_210d00a3c3.png
from https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-agai ... t-tracker/
Fair enough. I note that the chart is for 'commitments'. Echoing my second point above, I would be more interested in what had already actually been delivered, rather than what had been pledged. A number of governments, not just Germany, have made very public announcements about what they are giving, and delivery has been far too slow - i.e. more Ukrainians die as a consequence - or even simply does not happen.
(My thoughts without and specific "knowledge")
I would imagine it all becomes a very complex neigh on impossible to analyse when "delivery" comparisons are made e.g. where delivering kit without prior training would do nothing more than attract Russian targeting. Training (both use and maintenance and provision of spares, etc.) could involve delays for many reasons beyond control of the donor country/organisation.

I have no idea how much standardisation there is across NATO kit e.g. does the training currently happening in the UK also provide knowledge covering operation of US provides kit or German provided kit?

I wonder at what point getting supplies into Ukraine will become a limiting factor. Undoubtedly Russia will be monitoring likely routes so they can target the weapons before they get to the front line and are used against them (if they can bring themselves to switch targeting from e.g. civilian residential).

Edit: (Another thought) In terms of delivery of commitments, I understood that the UK made quite a few commitments to certain groups of Afghan people yet has fallen somewhat short on delivery. Johnson has not always been the most reliable on delivering what he promises but hopefully will manage better this time.

Ian
Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

Psamathe wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 9:28pm Edit: (Another thought) In terms of delivery of commitments, I understood that the UK made quite a few commitments to certain groups of Afghan people yet has fallen somewhat short on delivery. Johnson has not always been the most reliable on delivering what he promises but hopefully will manage better this time.
The UK had been delivering since 2015 after the annexation of Crimea. Operation Orbital trained thousands of Ukrainian troops. The linked video shows the Ukrainian Independence Day parade of 2021. Representatives of those countries which had training teams in Ukraine are all mentioned. It does not include France or Germany. It's also a mirror list of those countries which warned Germany not to go ahead with Nordstream 2.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ukraine ... mC6jw,st:0
Psamathe
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Psamathe »

Ben@Forest wrote: 2 Jul 2022, 10:03am
Psamathe wrote: 1 Jul 2022, 9:28pm Edit: (Another thought) In terms of delivery of commitments, I understood that the UK made quite a few commitments to certain groups of Afghan people yet has fallen somewhat short on delivery. Johnson has not always been the most reliable on delivering what he promises but hopefully will manage better this time.
The UK had been delivering since 2015 after the annexation of Crimea. Operation Orbital trained thousands of Ukrainian troops. The linked video shows the Ukrainian Independence Day parade of 2021. Representatives of those countries which had training teams in Ukraine are all mentioned. It does not include France or Germany. It's also a mirror list of those countries which warned Germany not to go ahead with Nordstream 2.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ukraine ... mC6jw,st:0
I was not saying that the UK never delivers on any of its commitments. I was saying that Johnson makes lots of commitments and does not always do what was committed to. Maybe tell those those stuck in Afghanistan waiting for the UK to live-up to its promises how "The UK had been delivering since 2015..." - they might disagree.

Just because UK trained Ukrainian troops before Russia's recent invasion does not mean Johnson will necessarily live-up to his recent commitments nor that he wont. I was just pointing out Johnson is very ready to make commitments when Press cameras are around and does not always fulfil what was promised.

Ian
slowster
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by slowster »

I agree that it is difficult to keep track of everything that has been promised to Ukraine with what has been delivered, but the amount of 'open source intelligence' such as Twitter videos showing particular kit in Ukraine has enabled it to happen to a significant degree, and independent analysts are collating the information, e.g. https://jamesrushton.substack.com/p/wes ... support-to.

I think it is very apparent that what the US and UK and many other countries have promised, has been delivered rapidly. In contrast Germany promised 50 Gepard mobile armoured anti-aircraft guns in a major burst of publicity in April. The number was quietly later reduced to 30, and they still have not yet been delivered, with delivery now expected later this month. In other words, the German government got the benefit of the positive publicity of the initial announcement at a time when they looked bad compared to the rest of NATO members' contributions and were being criticised domestically and internationally, but since then they have been dilatory. Similarly the spanish PM cynically misrepresented what military equipment Spain was sending to Ukraine in a large shipment which attracted a lot of media attention at the time - https://jamesrushton.substack.com/p/ped ... e-military.

France has not acted like Germany or Spain, but it has been well behind the curve compared to the UK, US and some others in the help it has provided to the Ukraine. A chart that shows that what France has pledged in monetary terms is slightly more than the UK, is a long way from giving an accurate account of the value of the help that has been provided by the UK vs France.

France already works very closely with the UK at a military level, e.g. the current acting commander of one of the two UK army divisions is a french general, and the UK has provided important logistics support for french forces in Mali. I suspect that shared strategic interests will drive that further, not least because of the recognition that Germany cannot be relied upon to pull its weight in the military defence of Europe, never mind provide (military/hard power) leadership. The latter also has major implications for the EU, and possibly even the Euro.

As for Boris Johnson, I think that focusing on him and his personal failings is a very flawed, reductive perspective. The UK's policy and actions towards Ukraine have been driven by the analysis of the UK military and the Foreign Office, and if any politician has made a significant difference it is probably Ben Wallace, who pushed for the massive inflow of weapons in the run up to the invasion, because that was doubtless what the chiefs of the defence staff were advising him needed to be done.
Ben@Forest
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Ben@Forest »

slowster wrote: 2 Jul 2022, 12:12pm As for Boris Johnson, I think that focusing on him and his personal failings is a very flawed, reductive perspective. The UK's policy and actions towards Ukraine have been driven by the analysis of the UK military and the Foreign Office, and if any politician has made a significant difference it is probably Ben Wallace, who pushed for the massive inflow of weapons in the run up to the invasion, because that was doubtless what the chiefs of the defence staff were advising him needed to be done.
Absolutely. It's also worth remembering that Johnson is the third prime minister under which UK support has been provided and that Wallace is an ex-Army officer who really sounds as if he knows what he's talking about.
Jdsk
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Re: War on Our Doorstep: How do we respond?

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 28 Jun 2022, 8:28pm
Jdsk wrote: 16 May 2022, 8:28pm
Jdsk wrote: 25 Apr 2022, 6:19pm Sweden and Finland have responded by applying to join NATO:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... plications
"Turkey says it will not approve Sweden and Finland joining Nato":
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... kraine-war

I'd expect that to be manageable...
And it's just been managed:


Screenshot 2022-06-28 at 20.27.44.png
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/statu ... 8347058176
"NATO Ambassadors signed the Accession Protocols for Finland and Sweden at NATO Headquarters on Tuesday (5 July 2022)... "

"Last week at the Madrid Summit, Allied leaders agreed to invite Finland and Sweden to join NATO following the agreement of a trilateral memorandum between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden."


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_197763.htm

Jonathan
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