Is Putin Mad?

Use this board for general non-cycling-related chat, or to introduce yourself to the forum.
Post Reply
Slowtwitch
Posts: 744
Joined: 25 Oct 2021, 11:35pm

Is Putin Mad?

Post by Slowtwitch »

After several TV appearances where a rambling, stumbling, glass eyed President basically tore up the rule book of international relations, without a thought for the impact it might have on the Russian peoples, is it time to question Putin's sanity?

The 69yr old despot has his finger on an arsenal of over 6000 nuclear weapons, a tenth of which would pretty much render Europe straight back to the stone age. Several commentators have described how much he has altered in the past few years.

Macron is someone who has spent a fair bit of time up close and personal (he had him stay at his seafront house, gave him a tour of Versailles in a golf cart) with the man who has just declared an all out, unprovoked war. Macron said recently that Putin has changed beyond recognition, 'guarded, paranoid and distant'. Not the same man he welcomed on French soil, the same man who stepped off his helicopter, presented him with a bunch of flowers and jokingly complimented Macrons tan.

This from one of Macron's closest aides:

"Following Putin’s speech on Monday, an Elysée official made an unusually bold assessment that the speech was “paranoid”. Bernard Guetta, a member of the European parliament for Macron’s grouping, told France Inter radio on Thursday morning, after military invasion began: “I think this man is losing his sense of reality, to say it politely.” Asked by the interviewer if that meant he thought Putin had gone mad, he said “yes”.

Mad or justifiably paranoid and dangerous?
pwa
Posts: 17357
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by pwa »

I'm pretty sure Ukraine isn't the end of his territorial ambitions. He clearly yearns for the glory days of the USSR when he worked in the service of one of the two big players. He is probably mulling over whether NATO would really go to war over Latvia and Estonia. And I expect him to conclude that NATO wouldn't. He sees a West with no appetite for war, weak in his eyes, and he aims to take advantage of that. It helps him that some of the West needs Russian gas at the moment. If he waits ten years that may no longer be the case and he will have missed his moment. Is that madness? No, it is another way of looking at what it is that makes a good life. His World View is different to ours.
Slowtwitch
Posts: 744
Joined: 25 Oct 2021, 11:35pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Slowtwitch »

“To anyone who would consider interfering from outside: If you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All the relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me.”

That does sound pretty bonkers to be honest, like the school bully who is terrified to lose his power, his thrall over others. However if he's right, and no one interferes militarily, then who's next? Latvia? Estonia? Bulgaria? I'm dubious just how committed Nato is to to defending anyone right now.
peetee
Posts: 4287
Joined: 4 May 2010, 10:20pm
Location: Upon a lumpy, scarred granite massif.

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by peetee »

He has a history of macho behaviour. This act of war is no different and has been borne of a life of despotic privilege and manipulation. Someone with that mentality wants to be at the top and in full control. A level of Russian society has been profiting, often obscenely, from western culture and products, diluting the communist principals he grew up with and eroding some of his influence and control. He must know that sanctions would follow his European incursion and that would punish those that threatened his position of full control.
With any luck those that stand to loose the most financially will overthrow him but I feel with the sort of control of he Kremlin holds over every citizen - the fear that nobody’s allegiance can truly be known - such an uprising will never gather pace.
The older I get the more I’m inclined to act my shoe size, not my age.
mattheus
Posts: 5030
Joined: 29 Dec 2008, 12:57pm
Location: Western Europe

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by mattheus »

Mad?

Well, you do present a convincing case .... but ...

I think you also need to consider the case for all of his actions and words being for rational (if devious, bullying and power-hungry) reasons.

- Threats of massive retaliation? Makes sense if you think it will stop people standing upto you.

- Speeches in the style of a mad war-mongering dictator? Hint that you want to restore the Soviet Empire of old? Perfect way to keep everyone scared, while you make tactical land+resource grabs.

- Risking global war by invading a weak neighbour? Makes sense if you know there will be limited reprisals, and you can "negotiate" by withdrawing most of your troops later, leaving a strong position and a neighbour that is now even more petrified of you.

...etc ...
Last edited by mattheus on 25 Feb 2022, 10:40am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
simonineaston
Posts: 7993
Joined: 9 May 2007, 1:06pm
Location: ...at a cricket ground

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by simonineaston »

Oh No! - a mad-man commanding a modern army of ten of thousands, attacking - unprovoked - a neighbouring free democracy, killing civilians and soldiers alike... We need something to take our mind off this depressing news - let's choose a good old film we haven't seen for ages, settle back on the sofa and have an evening of relaxation and fun! What shall we watch? I know - let's watch Kubrik's Dr. Stangelove :shock: :shock: :shock:
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
Psamathe
Posts: 17616
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Psamathe »

I've been wondering if he is getting scard of threats from "within". I can't believe there aren't "factions" within the Kremlin and they seem to have a track record of assassinating opponents (wherever they may be). Putin is said to be in "isolation" because he's scard of Covid whilst the rest of the world goes shopping, meets in pubs "eating out to help out", etc.. I've been wondering if his self-imposed isolation is nothing to do with Covid but to stop others putting noxious nerve agents in his underwear ...

Ian
Carlton green
Posts: 3626
Joined: 22 Jun 2019, 12:27pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Carlton green »

Is Putin mad? I doubt that he’s mentally ill (in the traditional sense) but it’s not impossible. Is he mad as in annoyed, well very possibly; Putin was a KGB guy who witnessed his great country brought to its knees and that might upset someone - happened before in Germany after the First World War. My suspicion is that Putin and his tanks won’t stop until they reach a NATO country and then he will test the West’s resolve and capability. To be honest I’m rather concerned at what the outcome will be; Putin and his commanders are united and experienced campaigners who will have really though things out before taking any action ...
Don’t fret, it’s OK to: ride a simple old bike; ride slowly, walk, rest and admire the view; ride off-road; ride in your raincoat; ride by yourself; ride in the dark; and ride one hundred yards or one hundred miles. Your bike and your choices to suit you.
User avatar
Hellhound
Posts: 756
Joined: 19 May 2021, 7:39am

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Hellhound »

Not mad,just power mad.
He holds all the cards and knows it.He can pretty much do as he pleases and probably will.The only way to stop him is to remove him from within and I can't see that happening either.He wants a return to the USSR and will most likely get it.
Slowtwitch
Posts: 744
Joined: 25 Oct 2021, 11:35pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Slowtwitch »

This is what madness looks like (Kyiv this morning), and this is what it's going to look like every day all over Europe unless we put a stop to Putins ambitions.

Withdrawal of the Formula One event in Russia isn't really going to cut it, is it?
Attachments
IMG_20220225_124655.jpg
Last edited by Slowtwitch on 25 Feb 2022, 12:40pm, edited 1 time in total.
Psamathe
Posts: 17616
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Psamathe »

Slowtwitch wrote: 25 Feb 2022, 12:27pm ....
Withdrawal of the Formula One event in Russia isn't really going to cut it, is it?
Better than telling him "he's a very naughty boy" - which is all the West seems to be managing so far.

Ian
pwa
Posts: 17357
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by pwa »

Unfortunately we in the West need to be careful not to make Putin any angrier than he already is because his hands are on the gas supply that provides much of the power for Germany and other eastern parts of the EU. That is a very strong card to have. This reliance on Russian gas is now looking like a very silly mistake. It means we can't use any sanctions that really hurt Russia.
Slowtwitch
Posts: 744
Joined: 25 Oct 2021, 11:35pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Slowtwitch »

pwa wrote: 25 Feb 2022, 12:35pm Unfortunately we in the West need to be careful not to make Putin any angrier than he already is because his hands are on the gas supply that provides much of the power for Germany and other eastern parts of the EU. That is a very strong card to have. This reliance on Russian gas is now looking like a very silly mistake. It means we can't use any sanctions that really hurt Russia.
Gazprom currently supplies 40% of all European gas requirements. Russia is pretty much self sufficient for everything, especially energy supplies. Its very unlikely that shortfall of 40% could be met before next winter (6 months from now) Most countries pre-buy their gas for the winter to come in the summer, so basically if Putin shuts the pipeline, we in the west have about 3 months to buy next winters supply.
Psamathe
Posts: 17616
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Psamathe »

pwa wrote: 25 Feb 2022, 12:35pm Unfortunately we in the West need to be careful not to make Putin any angrier than he already is because his hands are on the gas supply that provides much of the power for Germany and other eastern parts of the EU. That is a very strong card to have. This reliance on Russian gas is now looking like a very silly mistake. It means we can't use any sanctions that really hurt Russia.
Interesting article about Russian Gas and impact on Germany (part quoted below).

My take is that there will be an economic impact but there is an economic impact to all sanctions. But it sounds to me (from the report - I'm no expert) that domestic use this and next winter will be OK and the likely impact is on industrial use. But even in the UK pre-Putin's madness we were needing the Government to step in to subsidise industry over gas. It becomes a question of degree.

Russia has proven itself to be unreliable so Germany in some respects has the choice to do whatever Putin wants, to become Russia's poodle or to suffer the risk/impact of constrained gas supply.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/can-germany-function-without-vladimir-putins-gas wrote:Can Germany function without Vladimir Putin’s gas?
...
The Green federal economics minister, Robert Habeck, answered with a decisive “yes it can”
...
Leonhard Birnbaum, the CEO of Germany’s biggest gas and electricity provider E.ON, said that while energy supplies for this winter were secure, next year could be more of a challenge. “If Russian gas imports were to break down completely, the immediate effect wouldn’t be so dramatic as we’re almost at the end of the heating season. But next winter it could be the case that we’re not able to meet the supply demands of all the industrial customers. Some of them may have to turn off the power. ...
Ian
Slowtwitch
Posts: 744
Joined: 25 Oct 2021, 11:35pm

Re: Is Putin Mad?

Post by Slowtwitch »

Is a Putin mad enough to retaliate against 'aggressors' with a nuclear response? The last (and only) instance of a premeditated nuclear attack was in 1945, by America on Japan. Only possible because no one else possessed the capability to respond in kind.

That, of course is not the case now. Would Putin use low yield nuclear ballistics on the battlefield? That's another question. But small conflicts can easily morph into continental conflicts. If history had taught us anything, then its to be very wary to dictators who feel they are not being treated with the respect and fear they think they deserve.
Post Reply