Warren Buffet said “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.” Similarly the Rusian invasion of Ukraine is showing that a lot of so called experts in many fields have both a deeply flawed understanding of their subjects, and - much worse - an inability in the face of overwhelming evidence to recognise that they have been wrong, and to re-evaluate.
One of the best commentators on the war is Phillips Payson O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews. He was as surprised as many others at the ineptitude of the Russian military in the first few days of the war, but rather than clinging on to the belief that Russia was a first rank military power and would eventually win, as so many analysts and experts did, he did not hesitate to identify the evident failings and weaknesses of the Russian military, and to conclude very quickly that Russia could not win the war.
While many defence correspondents in the mainstream press and TV were describing the battle of the Donbas in exagerated terms that suggested the Russians were winning/had made breakthroughs etc., his dispassionate analysis on Twitter (
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien) was that the Russians were failing to achieve their objectives, and events have consistently shown his analysis to be good. This is his recent article debunking the self-styled 'realists' like Kissinger who have stated that Ukraine must cede territory to Russia:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archi ... th/661452/
As for Russian/Putin's motivations, many commentators have pointed out that the argument that Russia's concern was the threat of NATO on its borders is given the lie by Putin stating that Russia is not particularly bothered by Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Putin said recently to an audience in St Petersburg that Russia 'is taking back what's ours'. As that statement indicates, this is a war of imperial expansion with the goal of Ukraine becoming a colony of Russia, just as Hitler wanted Ukraine for Lebensraum, and the suppression of the Ukrainian people through intimidation, violence, forced deportations and erasing of Ukrainian language and culture.
I think this article is probably close to the mark in explaining the outlook of many Russians and why/how they are so ready to support the war (or at least not protest against it), and there are a couple of interesting parallels/contrasts with British and US cultures:
https://wartranslated.com/what-might-be ... worldview/
This is a more pithy, similar analysis:
https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1 ... D-muwqAAAA
A huge factor in everything that is happening, and has happened in the last couple of decades, is Germany. Just as russian 'identity' as described in the article above is a/the problem, so too german identity is undermining the West's support of Ukraine. It seems that many Germans, especially so called 'intellectuals', believe in a form of german moral superiority and exceptionalism which requires/allows them not to get involved. Recently Timothy Snyder, a Yale professor and author of 'Bloodlands' about Ukraine's history, wrote this criticism of one of the intellectual hand-wringers in chief:
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/aus ... ageIndex_2
This Twitter thread about that article by a commentator on international security is more succinct and blunt in its criticism of Germany and those Germans who would sacrifice Ukrainians for their idea of 'peace':
https://twitter.com/bctallis/status/1543706011743256578