Cycling UK Forum

simonineaston wrote: 29 May 2022, 6:43pm

Overpopulation is the Elephant in the room.

Toot toot go Dumbo... of course it is. People are inclined to bang on about how readily in fact we can feed populations of this & that - but miss the simple point. That the bigger the party the bigger the mess...

The simple point on food production is that there is zero evidence of us running out. Per capita availability of both total calories and protein is increasing in every continent.

And Malthus died in 1834.

The damage to the environment is a different kettle of fish. But any arguments around this still need to be based on evidence.

Jonathan

Dude, by the time evidence is available to suit all tastes, we'll all be dead...

Carlton green wrote: 29 May 2022, 6:25pm

I’d like to see the details too but on this occasion I find myself being supportive of Pebble’s stance.

What is true is that our fisheries are but a shadow of their former selves because we’ve taken to much from the Sea - some of which we’re then misguided enough to sell to other countries - and that we import roughly half of what we eat. So in terms of sustainability our population is already too large and net migration makes the problem worse.
https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/uk-threat/

More little Englander ignorance. A lot of the types of fish and molluscs UK fisherman catch are not popular food in the UK. That's why they export a lot of their catch. Conversely a lot of the fish varieties people do like to eat here are caught by "foreign" fishermen.

simonineaston wrote: 29 May 2022, 6:57pm Dude, by the time evidence is available to suit all tastes, we'll all be dead...

Life expectancy is also increasing.

Unfortunately many people aren't yet sufficiently convinced of the need for major changes to protect the environment. Apocalyptic statements without evidence make the denial much easier. Repeated apocalyptic statements that turn out to be untrue even more so.

Jonathan

Carlton green wrote: 29 May 2022, 6:53pm
Quite. Here in the UK we can’t control what the rest of the world does but we can determine what we do and we can try to provide best practice models for other countries to follow. Part of our problems here are due to overpopulation and having significantly unbalanced net migration isn’t helping us.

Unless humanity acts Mother Nature will put things right but it won’t be in some kind way. It’s better by far for us to be thinking of acting before she does, I’d quite like my Children and Grandchildren to have a future.

"....best practice models for other countries to follow." What are these best practices for keeping the Blighty population static? Do they include sending the Royal Navy out to see orf the migrant boats by sinking them? Do they include setting up gulags or concentration camps in Rwanda? Do they include prosecuting the lifeboat folk for rescuing migrants all at sea? Should we return folk who arrived on The Windrush and similar, now we no longer feel the need of their labours? Etcetera.

How about those Ukrainian refugees? Send 'em back, is it? And those fleeing various degrees of serious persecution, up to and including torture and death? Not our problem, eh?

None of these practices seem well described by having "best" placed in front of them. But perhaps I am just a soft-hearted, pink-livered fellow, oblivious to the danger of foreign hordes overwhelming our green & pleasant land? Personally I feel a much greater fear of our proto-fascist "government" and its various mobs of intransigent and highly intolerant supporters. Who will they export to Rwanda or worse next? Perhaps you and me!

On the other hand, they may find it easier to reduce the population by sheer neglect, introduction of a toxic environment (good for profits of many kinds!) and perhaps even starvation, homelessness and freezin'. It seems to be working so far.

Cugel

We live in the centre of dream-like myths of our exceptionialism, a web of a myriad repeating narratives we use to disguise our primal lusts for power and dominance - we are simply not equipped to deal with the future that faces us all. I bet you at least a tenner we won't make it...

simonineaston wrote: 29 May 2022, 7:34pm We live in the centre of dream-like myths of our exceptionialism, a web of a myriad repeating narratives we use to disguise our primal lusts for power and dominance - we are simply not equipped to deal with the future that faces us all. I bet you at least a tenner we won't make it...

I’d be prepared to bet you several grand that we do make it - if I loose then neither of us will be around to worry about me paying up .

We do live in a dream land though and if we don’t change some things then we’re in for one hell of a shock … we just don’t know what form it will take and what direction it will come from. Has anyone enjoyed the last few years? There’s more of the same and worse to come.

Carlton green wrote: 29 May 2022, 7:51pm

simonineaston wrote: 29 May 2022, 7:34pm We live in the centre of dream-like myths of our exceptionialism, a web of a myriad repeating narratives we use to disguise our primal lusts for power and dominance - we are simply not equipped to deal with the future that faces us all. I bet you at least a tenner we won't make it...

I’d be prepared to bet you several grand that we do make it - if I loose then neither of us will be around to worry about me paying up

See Pascal's wager...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager

: - )

Jonathan

al_yrpal wrote: 29 May 2022, 11:44am Then, as an expert Googler look up reliable figures for emigration and immigration and determine the net increase in population. Can you also determine how many more or less dwellings are needed to house them and compare this with accurate figures of how many extra dwellings are currently being created

Please...

Al

https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/r ... d-impacts/

Doesnt answer the question, its about cost not numbers.

We know about HMOs, rented housing is just as important as owned housing it gets occupied and new housing has to keep up.

Al

And Malthus died in 1834.

That is true and true of many other people who have put forward ideas that have moved society forwards in some way.

People might find this an interesting read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism

Commentators are fond of assuming that the changes that will happen to the Earth's climate will be survivable... some great graphics on this page here - they move and everything!

simonineaston wrote: 31 May 2022, 8:39am Commentators are fond of assuming that the changes that will happen to the Earth's climate will be survivable...

People can only see, or try to see, so far ahead. They extrapolate and use the rules that appear to apply today; that can work perfectly well but unexpected step changes do happen and the results throw everything into disarray. Nature has its checks and balances and we’ve been pressing the override button for some time, the result will be a bigger correction and we won’t know about it until it arrives.

My own favourite catastrophe-laden future, based entirely on muddled recollections of science fiction movies and misunderstood interpretations of difficult scientific papers, is a ghastly mix of huge sea-level rises, mass desertification, waves of lethal pathogens, uncontrollable temperatures, widespread wild fires and crucially a change in the make-up of the breathable atmosphere. These differences, combined, will mean that Earth will no longer support the existence of most higher animals. And of course, that dear reader includes primates - ie us.
What's really cool is that it looks like I'll be left to complete my own life span without being affected very much ! And of course, just because I don't really know what I'm talking about doesn't mean its not going to happen...

Jdsk wrote: 26 May 2022, 1:09pm

Jdsk wrote: 19 May 2022, 1:21pm Practical solutions:
Higher personal taxation, fiscal redistribution and higher state benefits delivered more quickly
Increased minimum wage
Lower trade barriers and lower barriers to employment of foreign workers, reducing the cost of food and wastage of crops and livestock, and increasing GDP
Lower trade barriers increasing GDP
Massive increase in eligibility for free school meals
Consistent long-term food polices including taxation on harmful foods in line with the evidence from other countries
Regional policies that support local employment and reduce the need for benefits

All achievable if that's what we want. Or we can increase social disparities and increase food and fuel poverty if that's what we want.

A small step in the right direction with today's changes to benefits.

My emboldening.

The staff bodies and the former children's commissioner on how extending the free school meals scheme can help, suggested eligibility is all children from families receiving Universal Credit:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... -longfield

Jonathan

simonineaston wrote: 29 May 2022, 6:57pm Dude, by the time evidence is available to suit all tastes, we'll all be dead...

Correct.

What's really cool is that it looks like I'll be left to complete my own life span without being affected very much ! And of course, just because I don't really know what I'm talking about doesn't mean its not going to happen...

H’mm at best all that we can make is an educated guess at what the future holds. I didn’t anticipate COVID and I didn’t anticipate the invasion of Ukraine though, to be fair, both could have near enough been anticipate as rather too likely a decade ago. Just a small shift in the balance of things can cause significant change(s). Scenes of disaster make for good films and some are far seem fetched, but of course only one of the disaster ideas needs to be true and it doesn’t need to be much of a shift at all from where we are now.

I’m hopeful of being able to live my life out and not be too effected by climate change, shortages and overpopulation. However I have children and grandchildren; how such offspring will manage is very much a concern to me if a state of affairs which is virtually outside of my influence.