IOM TT Races - Death Rate

[PedallingSquares]

This is often said but I've never seen any evidence for it. Of course it's a comfort to believe that it's true after someone is killed or injured.
I would guess that emotions play a much bigger part than knowledge in the decision to race.

Sure, emotions are a big part - because they're not doing a job, they're racing for personal satisfaction (etc).
But that doesn't rebut the statement "they know the risks" !

It doesn't. But I wasn't "rebutting" anything. I stated that I've never seen any evidence that the riders know the risks.
I'm sure that they know there are some risks, but that isn't the same as "knowing the risks".
Jonathan

So you've 'never seen any evidence of this'?I think you are arguing for arguments sake.The evidence is there in the riders who race year in year out despite the deaths.
You always seem to imply that if you haven't seen something then it does not exist.How long have you been studying the psyche of motorcycle road racers to come to your conclusions?

BTW if you hit a wall at 200mph on a motorcycle there's a more than fair chance you will die.Do you seriously believe that they don't know this?I've ridden motorcycles all my life,and ridden track days,I know this and so do Pro-racers which is why 'most' don't ride the TT or other road circuits.....because they know the risks!

[mattheus]

It doesn't. But I wasn't "rebutting" anything. I stated that I've never seen any evidence that the riders know the risks.

I'm sure that they know there are some risks, but that isn't the same as "knowing the risks".

Are you suggesting their knowledge is incomplete? That they haven't quantified, weighed and measured the risks adequately?
Have you done some analysis that you feel is beyond theirs, giving you a superior appreciation of these risks?
Care to share any of this with us? Just one would help me understand your viewpoint.

Hmmm. I can't speak for jdsk, but for some reason the number of young men sustaining fatal and life compromising injuries suggests that something might be a little awry...

What is the reason?

[Cugel]

Sure, emotions are a big part - because they're not doing a job, they're racing for personal satisfaction (etc).

But that doesn't rebut the statement "they know the risks" !

It doesn't. But I wasn't "rebutting" anything. I stated that I've never seen any evidence that the riders know the risks.

I'm sure that they know there are some risks, but that isn't the same as "knowing the risks".

Are you suggesting their knowledge is incomplete? That they haven't quantified, weighed and measured the risks adequately?
Have you done some analysis?
Care to share any of this with us? Just one would help me understand your viewpoint.

Every human I know, including me, is inclined to do wishful thinking when the emotional drivers to do something dangerous are running high. The wish goes, "I don't want anything bad to happen so it won't". People do this all the time, in many degrees, especially when driving motorised vehicles (and often when riding bicycles).

There is a corollary, when their sense of danger is ramped up by summick or other (such as a swivel-eyed newspap spouter). Things that present little or no risk are suddenly seen as life-threatening, so instead of taking the insane risks allowed by the wishful thunk, they do hide-under-the-stairs-with-a-big-stick paranoia.

Humans. Cuh!

Cugel, all too human.

[Pendodave]

Are you suggesting their knowledge is incomplete? That they haven't quantified, weighed and measured the risks adequately?
Have you done some analysis that you feel is beyond theirs, giving you a superior appreciation of these risks?
Care to share any of this with us? Just one would help me understand your viewpoint.

Hmmm. I can't speak for jdsk, but for some reason the number of young men sustaining fatal and life compromising injuries suggests that something might be a little awry...

What is the reason?

Well, making the assumption that they don't want to die, every time one of them does they then have taken a risk in which they very much misjudged the outcome. That this happens with monotonous regularity suggests that the participants are not very good at it.
This might be because they are not furnished with appropriate information, or because the act of racing distorts their risk evaluation.

FWIW, I also feel uncomfortable watching professional cycling, which I enjoy very much, because of the inevitability of injuries, some of which are severe. I wonder if The Moral Maze has addressed this issue?

[PedallingSquares]

Well, making the assumption that they don't want to die, every time one of them does they then have taken a risk in which they very much misjudged the outcome. That this happens with monotonous regularity suggests that the participants are not very good at it.
This might be because they are not furnished with appropriate information, or because the act of racing distorts their risk evaluation.

That whole paragraph leaves me lost for words and as for the bit I highlighted in bold...... Oh dear

[mattheus]

Well, making the assumption that they don't want to die, every time one of them does they then have taken a risk in which they very much misjudged the outcome. That this happens with monotonous regularity suggests that the participants are not very good at it.
This might be because they are not furnished with appropriate information, or because the act of racing distorts their risk evaluation.

That does not follow.

If you evaluate that something has a small chance [let's say 10%] of killing you, but decide it is worth doing anyway, you've decided to take the chance.[of course we all do this most days of the week in some way - nothing is risk-free]
If you then get hurt (or die), that doesn't mean you misjudged the outcome; it just means the dice didn't fall your way. You MAY have misjudged the outcome, but that would take detailed analysis and probably telepathy to judge post impact.

I suspect you judge the risk of TT racing as not worth taking - therefore in your view the fatalities are all "misjudgements". But you cannot know that.

[Bonefishblues]

Well, making the assumption that they don't want to die, every time one of them does they then have taken a risk in which they very much misjudged the outcome. That this happens with monotonous regularity suggests that the participants are not very good at it.
This might be because they are not furnished with appropriate information, or because the act of racing distorts their risk evaluation.

That whole paragraph leaves me lost for words and as for the bit I highlighted in bold...... Oh dear

I thought similar. It might suggest that because most of them - the overwhelming majority of them - successfully race at huge speeds without injury, they are in fact rather good at it. The TT course is however almost uniquely punishing of even tiny mistakes.

[Pendodave]

Well, making the assumption that they don't want to die, every time one of them does they then have taken a risk in which they very much misjudged the outcome. That this happens with monotonous regularity suggests that the participants are not very good at it.
This might be because they are not furnished with appropriate information, or because the act of racing distorts their risk evaluation.

That whole paragraph leaves me lost for words and as for the bit I highlighted in bold...... Oh dear

I thought that the meaning was clear. They are very good a riding motorcycles fast, but every time one of them dies they have objectively made a very poor decision.
I am curious why you think my sentence odd. Do you not think that they want to avoid death, or do you think that the decisions which lead to death are good ones made on the basis of sound risk analysis?

[mattheus]

I thought that the meaning was clear. They are very good a riding motorcycles fast, but every time one of them dies they have objectively made a very poor decision.
I am curious why you think my sentence odd. Do you not think that they want to avoid death, or do you think that the decisions which lead to death are good ones made on the basis of sound risk analysis?

I've explained in my previous post; but I'll add that:

You are using hindsight to judge risk analysis. It is not a reliable tool for the job.

[Cugel]

I thought that the meaning was clear. They are very good a riding motorcycles fast, but every time one of them dies they have objectively made a very poor decision.
I am curious why you think my sentence odd. Do you not think that they want to avoid death, or do you think that the decisions which lead to death are good ones made on the basis of sound risk analysis?

I've explained in my previous post; but I'll add that:

You are using hindsight to judge risk analysis. It is not a reliable tool for the job.

Hindsight is a very important and useful factor in judging future risks. Certainly a lot more useful than making a wholly theoretical risk assessment based on factors we like and not on factors we don't like.

We consider the circumstances of a past situation A and it's events, including the poor outcome of a risk with very serious consequences realising. We then look at similar future situations B, C D etc. as they arise and adjust our assessment of the risks, the factors involved and the cost of a risk realising, by comparing what actually happened in previous similar situations rather than just taking theoretical guesses.

This is what enables us to, for instance, make a better judgement than Alf the amber-gambler concerning sensible and not sensible behaviour at traffic lights. We saw how many times Alf had a near miss and also the time he killed himself and several others. We say to ourselves, I shall not take the Alf gamble.

Perhaps many who attend the TT races might consider doing the same? My impression is that they prefer the wishful thunks method, with little or no attention paid to the high possibility they will become yet another road-splat like so many before them.

Cugel

[mattheus]

I thought that the meaning was clear. They are very good a riding motorcycles fast, but every time one of them dies they have objectively made a very poor decision.
I am curious why you think my sentence odd. Do you not think that they want to avoid death, or do you think that the decisions which lead to death are good ones made on the basis of sound risk analysis?

I've explained in my previous post; but I'll add that:

You are using hindsight to judge risk analysis. It is not a reliable tool for the job.

Hindsight is a very important and useful factor in judging future risks. Certainly a lot more useful than making a wholly theoretical risk assessment based on factors we like and not on factors we don't like.

Yes of course (although of course 5 heads in a row does not generally guarantee that a head will follow. But anyway ... )
The thing is, Mr Pendo is not using it in that way. He is judging past decisions using hindsight.

A very different thing, and usually a mistake.

[thirdcrank]

Isle of Man TT: Organisers confirm Cesar Chanal died not Olivier Lavorel

In the statement, organisers said: "An initial identification procedure was conducted using established procedures and would appear to have resulted in a mistaken identification.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/motorsport/61733290

[pete75]

On Everest people climb past bodies.

A school classmate of mine crashed in an IoM.race and was unconcious for a few days.
His father had done the same, so he must have had some awareness of the risks.
I once rode pillion behind him on a riverbank path. Once was enough. He was good but rapid..

Not Lindsey Porter?

[reohn2]

My 2d's worth
IoM racers know exactly what they're getting into,if they don't they shouldn't be there,to say they don't understand the risks is to not understand motorcycle road racing.
The IoM is ridden on ordinary roads with all the associated street funiture(kerbs,unprotected walls,fences and light standards,etc,etc) and the risks such an environment creates for the riders,the circuit is recognised as the most dangerous in the world.It is from a different era when rider safety wasn't as high on organisers agenda.
The riders are incredibly skilled individuals,but as with any kind of high speed motorsport there is a risk of the unknown and unpredictable but without the gravel traps and soft protective padding.
The circuit was removed from the GP calender in the early 70's IIRC,because of the riders protestations of that unreasonable danger,and that was when track racing was far more dangerous that it is now.

The IoM tourist board rely on the TT for a huge amount of revenue,and IMO the TT wouldn't be allowed were to be considered starting it today.

I make no judgement on the IoM TT one way or the other just telling it as I see it,but that said,it has claimed many lives of people searching for glory.
Their choice.

[Mike Sales]

Not Lindsey Porter?

Yes.