Default 20mph for Wales

Nigel
Posts: 463
Joined: 25 Feb 2007, 6:29pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by Nigel »

Stevek76 wrote: 27 Dec 2022, 3:37pm
Nigel wrote: 27 Dec 2022, 2:44pm
pwa wrote: 26 Dec 2022, 7:43am Another article.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-64066163

One Welsh Government documanet suggests an economic hit from the default 20mph, but a minister predicts savings....
My own feeling is that it will all depend on how it is apllied.
If one takes the various (not well referenced) figures in the news article, we have £4.5Bn over 30 years and, in the opposite direction, £0.1Bn (£100million) in one year. As 30*£0.1Bn=£3Bn over 30 years,
You can't just multiply by number of years as future year figures get 'discounted' (because people value jam today more than jam tomorrow).
I know, but its a lot better than comparing a number for 30 years with a number for 1 year and saying the first is larger than the second.

Future discount value is really messy, what discount rate do you pick ? Or what outcome do you want, and find the rate required to give the outcome desired.....



There's a lot of random figures being chucked around in this article, ..


I agree, a point I was making.

As they note, not everything has been monetised and most of those things are benefits.
This is a common problem with not having a mechanism to compare things.



- Nigel
pete75
Posts: 16356
Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by pete75 »

pwa wrote: 27 Dec 2022, 2:59pm Savings from reduced accident costs, yes. It is reasonable to anticipate that. It is also reasonable to expect some increased delivery costs with vans and lorries managing fewer drops per day. But I personally have no way of quantifying those things for comparison. Added to which, accidents are not all about money. If it turned out that there were a negative net impact on the Welsh economy, but towns and villages become nicer places to be, the question will be whether the benefit justifies the cost.
Do you think delivery van drivers can stick to speed limits? I asked a DPD contracted driver about this a few weeks ago. He said it was impossible for him to do all his deliveries in the time allowed without speeding. Of course the company didn't condone speeding, the delivery routes were possible within the allowed time if it was always possible to drive close to the limit.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
Bmblbzzz
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Joined: 18 May 2012, 7:56pm
Location: From here to there.

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by Bmblbzzz »

Same with buses.
pwa
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Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by pwa »

pete75 wrote: 1 Jan 2023, 7:20pm
pwa wrote: 27 Dec 2022, 2:59pm Savings from reduced accident costs, yes. It is reasonable to anticipate that. It is also reasonable to expect some increased delivery costs with vans and lorries managing fewer drops per day. But I personally have no way of quantifying those things for comparison. Added to which, accidents are not all about money. If it turned out that there were a negative net impact on the Welsh economy, but towns and villages become nicer places to be, the question will be whether the benefit justifies the cost.
Do you think delivery van drivers can stick to speed limits? I asked a DPD contracted driver about this a few weeks ago. He said it was impossible for him to do all his deliveries in the time allowed without speeding. Of course the company didn't condone speeding, the delivery routes were possible within the allowed time if it was always possible to drive close to the limit.
Which suggests that the route planning software badly needs updating to allow for real life delays and new, reduced limits. Anything that puts pressure on delivery drivers is bad news for them and for us. I wish the Welsh Government were actively looking at this aspect, because it matters.
Bmblbzzz
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Joined: 18 May 2012, 7:56pm
Location: From here to there.

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by Bmblbzzz »

It is not necessarily route planning that needs to change but drivers' terms of payment.
pwa
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Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by pwa »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 2 Jan 2023, 2:37pm It is not necessarily route planning that needs to change but drivers' terms of payment.
I'm not sure how they are paid, but I have friends who have done delivery jobs where they get a schedule that gives them a list of drops and target times for getting to each one, and if traffic conditions are bad it can be difficult not to fall behind. Unrealistic schedules, including ones that don't take into account the latest speed limit reductions, are a psychological prod to cut corners with safety.
Bmblbzzz
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Joined: 18 May 2012, 7:56pm
Location: From here to there.

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by Bmblbzzz »

I think some are paid by the hour, some by the mile and some a flat rate per parcel. My point was pretty much as yours: their pay arrangements and schedules are an incentive to speed and cut corners with regard to safety. Sometimes this will involve taking an unsuitable route, sometimes just driving too fast, sometimes other things like claiming they've delivered a parcel when they haven't. These pressures were there in the 90s when I was involved in it and they must be even more now.
Pete Owens
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Joined: 7 Jul 2008, 12:52am

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by Pete Owens »

Speed limits really make very little difference to the time it takes to traverse urban areas. The limiting factor is the volume of traffic that can pass through junctions. Rushing between junctions just gets you to the back of the next queue a few seconds earlier - it makes no difference the time it takes to get to the front; that is governed by the number of vehicles ahead. I guess pretty much everyone reading this forum (if perhaps not many motor obsessives) is aware of the fact that bicycles are the quickest means of getting around towns.
pwa
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Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by pwa »

Pete Owens wrote: 3 Jan 2023, 1:43am Speed limits really make very little difference to the time it takes to traverse urban areas. The limiting factor is the volume of traffic that can pass through junctions. Rushing between junctions just gets you to the back of the next queue a few seconds earlier - it makes no difference the time it takes to get to the front; that is governed by the number of vehicles ahead. I guess pretty much everyone reading this forum (if perhaps not many motor obsessives) is aware of the fact that bicycles are the quickest means of getting around towns.
Pete, I think you are speaking from experience of your own familiair territory, and I myself know places where what you say is probably true at peak times. But in my own area, around Bridgend, Maesteg, Port Talbot and Neath, 30mph roads often do flow at or around 30mph, except for certain congestion hot spots at peak times. So delivery drivers from, say, Amazon, will spend much of their day above 20mph. If you reduce the limit on a lot of the 30mph roads in this area you will reduce the number of drops that can be done in a given period of time. It is important that companies factor this in and don't just pretend they haven't thought about it, leaving drivers under pressure to break the law.

A fairly randomly selected example of an urban road where travelling faster than 20mph is currently legal and nearly always possible at present, but likely to become a 20mph limit road in the near future:
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.61732 ... 384!8i8192
On that road, particularly further along where it gets narrow and twisty, the new limit is probably a very good thing. But delivery companies should be alerted to the need to modify their route planning software to factor in the changes and not put unfair pressure on drivers to exceed limits on roads like this. After all, we are always saying that limits are one thing, compliance is another. If something can be done to reduce the chances of a delivery driver failing to comply, that must be a good thing.
pete75
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Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by pete75 »

pwa wrote: 2 Jan 2023, 2:17pm
pete75 wrote: 1 Jan 2023, 7:20pm
pwa wrote: 27 Dec 2022, 2:59pm Savings from reduced accident costs, yes. It is reasonable to anticipate that. It is also reasonable to expect some increased delivery costs with vans and lorries managing fewer drops per day. But I personally have no way of quantifying those things for comparison. Added to which, accidents are not all about money. If it turned out that there were a negative net impact on the Welsh economy, but towns and villages become nicer places to be, the question will be whether the benefit justifies the cost.
Do you think delivery van drivers can stick to speed limits? I asked a DPD contracted driver about this a few weeks ago. He said it was impossible for him to do all his deliveries in the time allowed without speeding. Of course the company didn't condone speeding, the delivery routes were possible within the allowed time if it was always possible to drive close to the limit.
Which suggests that the route planning software badly needs updating to allow for real life delays and new, reduced limits. Anything that puts pressure on delivery drivers is bad news for them and for us. I wish the Welsh Government were actively looking at this aspect, because it matters.
The software is designed to work in the way it does - it's in the interests of the delivery companies.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
pwa
Posts: 17357
Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by pwa »

pete75 wrote: 3 Jan 2023, 9:45pm
pwa wrote: 2 Jan 2023, 2:17pm
pete75 wrote: 1 Jan 2023, 7:20pm

Do you think delivery van drivers can stick to speed limits? I asked a DPD contracted driver about this a few weeks ago. He said it was impossible for him to do all his deliveries in the time allowed without speeding. Of course the company didn't condone speeding, the delivery routes were possible within the allowed time if it was always possible to drive close to the limit.
Which suggests that the route planning software badly needs updating to allow for real life delays and new, reduced limits. Anything that puts pressure on delivery drivers is bad news for them and for us. I wish the Welsh Government were actively looking at this aspect, because it matters.
The software is designed to work in the way it does - it's in the interests of the delivery companies.
It is in the interests of the delivery companies to turn a blind eye to forthcoming speed limit reductions, and it is in our interest to pressure them to amend their software to take them into account. If companies like DPD, Amazon and Tesco were publicly asked by the Welsh Government to have their software ready for the new limits, they would be put in a position where they would probably feel it necessary to make a public statement confirming they would do that. And by having the route planning software amended, we would have achieved something that would actually increase compliance. More than speed cameras could ever do. And potentially, every delivery van from a big company could be a compliant traffic calming obstacle to private drivers wanting to go a bit faster.
Mike Sales
Posts: 7860
Joined: 7 Mar 2009, 3:31pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by Mike Sales »

Good thinking, pwa.
It's the same the whole world over
It's the poor what gets the blame
It's the rich what gets the pleasure
Isn't it a blooming shame?
the snail
Posts: 333
Joined: 5 Aug 2011, 3:11pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by the snail »

Maybe delivery companies should be fined if their vans are speeding?
pete75
Posts: 16356
Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by pete75 »

the snail wrote: 4 Jan 2023, 3:24pm Maybe delivery companies should be fined if their vans are speeding?
Don't know if they do pay the fines. A friend who was a lorry driver said his boss paid any fines he got. Most delivery drivers these days are self employed "owner drivers" and the delivery companies have fewer and fewer vans.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
pete75
Posts: 16356
Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Default 20mph for Wales

Post by pete75 »

pwa wrote: 4 Jan 2023, 9:41am
pete75 wrote: 3 Jan 2023, 9:45pm
pwa wrote: 2 Jan 2023, 2:17pm
Which suggests that the route planning software badly needs updating to allow for real life delays and new, reduced limits. Anything that puts pressure on delivery drivers is bad news for them and for us. I wish the Welsh Government were actively looking at this aspect, because it matters.
The software is designed to work in the way it does - it's in the interests of the delivery companies.
It is in the interests of the delivery companies to turn a blind eye to forthcoming speed limit reductions, and it is in our interest to pressure them to amend their software to take them into account. If companies like DPD, Amazon and Tesco were publicly asked by the Welsh Government to have their software ready for the new limits, they would be put in a position where they would probably feel it necessary to make a public statement confirming they would do that. And by having the route planning software amended, we would have achieved something that would actually increase compliance. More than speed cameras could ever do. And potentially, every delivery van from a big company could be a compliant traffic calming obstacle to private drivers wanting to go a bit faster.
The software will be changed to match the new limits, just like it matches the current limits. It'll assume drivers can average 20mph in the 20 limit areas. Of course they'll have to break the limits to do that.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
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