Are we all Trussed up...

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jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by jois »

Mike Sales wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 7:03pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 6:59pm
Never mind googled it myself, up to 15% give or take with possibly catastrophic consequences to marine eco systems, so it says. That will get the hug a cod protesters out in force
A link might have been more convincing.
I had to do my own googling you can to
Stevek76
Posts: 2085
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Stevek76 »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 6:30pm Meanwhile, back on topic, it seems the moron premium applies to opinion polling as well as government bond pricing.

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 54% (+9)
CON: 21% (-7)
LDEM: 7% (-2)
GRN: 6% (-1)

(!!)
Still a great deal of don't knows (19%) but a significant increase in switchers from 2019 conservative voters now from 8 to 17% with just 37% sure they'll still vote conservative.

Obviously there's probably some conference bounce here, there usually is but this is a remarkable feat by truss.

Analysis and link to full tables here:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... 9-sep-2022
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Psamathe
Posts: 17648
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 5:25pm
Psamathe wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 4:58pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 4:50pm

They tend to have an issue with the dark and a lack of wind and more of an issue that many people believe them unsightly, on shore wind farms are I think baned, miles and miles of solar panels don't look great either. I'm sure their are objectors to off shore farms as well. Nuclear get most people hot and bothered

What ever the actual answer is both to energy security and price which are slightly different issues a large contingent will object, probably much the same contingent will complain about all of them in either general terms or NIMBY terms.

We are sat on a island of coal with it seems substantial gas reserved in the rock and more as yet untapped in the North sea, it seems some what ungreatful to the god of tectonic plates not to use some of it

NB oil is a renewable energy source, just saying
You have listed a narrow range. Arguments like wind power when the wind isn't blowing or solar power at night are historic - storage. And as you say, we are an island and thus we have a lot of coastline and we also have good reliable tides that flow at different times at different bits of the coast. Tidal power does not obscure views or anything so difficult to see why you'd get a large contingent objecting.

You suggest burning hydrocarbons because we have plenty/ Maybe you haven't heard but that is destroying the climate planet wide with devastating impacts (including on the UK) so to continue such practices when we have non-polluting alternatives is just beyond daft.

Ian
So off sure wave capture won't get objectors ? I'm not so sure, how many miles of coast line do we need to replace our other energy sources? If it's as much as Australia we could have a problem and out tides may be reliable but not generally very large, surfing is rare off the Lancashire coast were the fracking gas is.

And how big do these batteries have to be to supply the whole country if it's a cold dark wind free fortnight ?

I'm not greatly convinced by the climate change we are all going to boil to death in our own juices argument to be honest.

But carbon capture technology could be used if your of that mind set
What has surfing got to do with tidal power? Tidal power has nothing to do with "wave power". Generation from waves is based on waves. Tidal power is from tidal flow. It's tidal flow not tidal range that is important and we have plenty of that.

Again you are thinking in very narrow terms to imply storage wont work. UK has been using storage technology for years (I remember visiting a generation storage site before I was even a teenager). There are loads of storage methods beyond traditional "batteries".

Climate change research has never suggested "we are all going to boil to death". It's that we are changing our climate to the point where many parts of the world will become uninhabitable. Additionally many parts will be subject to extreme weather (already happening) and sea level rise .....

Carbon capture is not a solution but a temporary bodge and I've not yet seen and working site operating at any reasonable scale. We have storage technology, tidal generation technology, solar technology, wind technology, etc.

Ian
Psamathe
Posts: 17648
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 6:54pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 6:47pm
Mike Sales wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 6:38pm

Britain has some of the biggest and strongest tides in the world.
The Severn Estuary is second only to the Bay of Fundy in range.
The Pentland Firth has tides powerful enough to threaten ships.
Look them up.
The west and north Scottish coast and Cornwall are exposed to North Atlantic weather,which is famously rough. The Northern Isles might have been designed for wind, wave and tidal generation.
I cannot think why you want wave power to be adjacent to Lancashire, in the Irish Sea, i.e. sheltered by Ireland.

How much of our power generation can we get from these few issolated places
. It's reaso:able question if your putting them forward as a source for meeting out energy needs
Estimates for the Seven Estuary are around 5% of total uk demand.
From the site you linked to above
Beauties of tide
Totting everything up, the barrage, the lagoons, and the tidal stream farms
could deliver something like 11 kWh/d per person (figure 14.10).
That sound a lot but would be just part of a mix of different types of generation (i.e. add solar, hydro, wind with storage). I don't reagrd hydrocarbons as "renewable" given the timescales and given the damage burning them has on our climate.

Ian
Psamathe
Posts: 17648
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 6:59pm
Mike Sales wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 6:38pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 5:25pm
out tides may be reliable but not generally very large, surfing is rare off the Lancashire coast were the fracking gas is.

Britain has some of the biggest and strongest tides in the world.
The Severn Estuary is second only to the Bay of Fundy in range.
The Pentland Firth has tides powerful enough to threaten ships.
Look them up.
The west and north Scottish coast and Cornwall are exposed to North Atlantic weather,which is famously rough. The Northern Isles might have been designed for wind, wave and tidal generation.
I cannot think why you want wave power to be adjacent to Lancashire, in the Irish Sea, i.e. sheltered by Ireland.
Never mind googled it myself, up to 15% give or take with possibly catastrophic consequences to marine eco systems, so it says. That will get the hug a cod protesters out in force
I don't think much cod is caught from the Severn Estuary that would be impacted by a barrage. But tidal power is far far broader than a single site with a single technology.

Ian
Psamathe
Posts: 17648
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 7:05pm
Mike Sales wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 7:02pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 6:47pm How much of our power generation can we get from these few issolated places. It's reaso:able question if your putting them forward as a source for meeting out energy needs
I could have mentioned many other places on our coasts with big tidal ranges and/or fast flowing tidal currents. To list them all would have been tedious.
Never mind 15% is the estimate for the whole coast line according to some univerity study

Along with possibly severely damaged marine eco systems, we just seem to be moving the problem. It's not clear how many trillions this will cost or what the unit price will be
Not all tidal power damages marine ecosystems. Severn barrage would have a big impact (which is why it's been debated back and forth for over 50 years). Other technologies (like turbines) don't have anything like the impact and would likely have a far lower impact than some of the fishing techniques now commonplace.

Ian
Psamathe
Posts: 17648
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

Re: Ms Truss' TV Appearances
I was impressed how far technology has progressed. Best I remember was lots of stuttering and jumps, low resolution, unrealistic backgrounds, etc.

Ian
jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by jois »

Psamathe wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:05pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 7:05pm
Mike Sales wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 7:02pm

I could have mentioned many other places on our coasts with big tidal ranges and/or fast flowing tidal currents. To list them all would have been tedious.
Never mind 15% is the estimate for the whole coast line according to some univerity study

Along with possibly severely damaged marine eco systems, we just seem to be moving the problem. It's not clear how many trillions this will cost or what the unit price will be
Not all tidal power damages marine ecosystems. Severn barrage would have a big impact (which is why it's been debated back and forth for over 50 years). Other technologies (like turbines) don't have anything like the impact and would likely have a far lower impact than some of the fishing techniques now commonplace.

Ian
Turbines seem somewhat unfriendly to passing marine things, unless you wanted cod strips of course.

Is that the best validation you have" it's not worse than over fishing"
Psamathe
Posts: 17648
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:23pm
Psamathe wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:05pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 7:05pm

Never mind 15% is the estimate for the whole coast line according to some univerity study

Along with possibly severely damaged marine eco systems, we just seem to be moving the problem. It's not clear how many trillions this will cost or what the unit price will be
Not all tidal power damages marine ecosystems. Severn barrage would have a big impact (which is why it's been debated back and forth for over 50 years). Other technologies (like turbines) don't have anything like the impact and would likely have a far lower impact than some of the fishing techniques now commonplace.

Ian
Turbines seem somewhat unfriendly to passing marine things, unless you wanted cod strips of course.

Is that the best validation you have" it's not worse than over fishing"
a. I didn't say over-fishing I said fishing techniques which is very different.

b. I have seen no evidence that turbines shred fish.

c. Preserving a healthy marine environment is far more complex that a single species. Some areas are more sensitive than others so there needs to be planning to minimise the impact. But even plonking them everywhere without any environmental considerations will likely cause less environmental damage that climate change will cause unless we dramatically reduce climate gas emissions pronto (which in part means not following your suggestion to keep and expand extracting an burning hydrocarbons).

It gets impossible to debate if you don't read or understand what others write e.g. confusing "wave power" and "tidal power" e.g. confusing "fishing techniques" with "over fishing". So until you can be bothered to actually read what people are writing I don't think I'll waste much time on teaching you basics I thought everybody was aware of (e.g. what a renewable energy source is).

Ian
Last edited by Psamathe on 29 Sep 2022, 8:42pm, edited 1 time in total.
Jdsk
Posts: 24635
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:50am
Stevek76 wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 11:32pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:56pm Now you're arguing that the current crisis is a result not of government incompetence but a mysterious illegal cartel?
I don't think there's any full conspiracy going on, I suspect it's most likely that truss and kwarteng are just deluded incompetents who cannot see past their own extreme ideology. Truss in particular appears to think she's thatcher mk2 but has clearly bought the thatcher fan club account of 80s economics rather than the rather more nuanced reality.

That said, if the aforementioned 'credible traders' are not just made up, then it's quite possible they are also stupid enough to listen to individuals like Crispin Odey (whom Kwarteng used to work for) who despite quite publicly stating he's been shorting the £ is obviously going to make hay and tell them what they want to hear (i.e. it's not their fault) before he goes home and takes out even more short positions.

I'm not sure that's really accurate to say 'the market' that's causing the crash though, it's still entirely truss/kwartengs faults. They have near unlimited access to a wide range of views should they want to listen, they do not, as demonstrated when they sacked Tom Scholar when he inevitably told them to get off the crack.
That sounds right to me.

In our system Ministers and Prime Ministers do not have to be domain experts. But they do have to manage vast amounts of conflicting advice.

In addition to the sacking of the Permanent Secretary I'd add avoiding an OBR report, especially when it had been explicitly offered. And not recalling Parliament.
Today's letter from the OBR:
https://obr.uk//docs/dlm_uploads/Sep202 ... recast.pdf

includes:

As we set out in our letter to the Chair of the Treasury Committee on 26 August, we took steps over the summer to prepare a forecast to coincide with the election of the new Prime Minister and any subsequent fiscal policy announcements. We sent a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new Chancellor on 6 September, his first day in office. We offered, at the time, to update that forecast to take account of subsequent data and to reflect the economic and fiscal impact of any policies the Government announced in time for it to be published alongside the ‘fiscal event’ planned for later in the month.
In the event, we were not commissioned to produce an updated forecast alongside the Chancellor’s Growth Plan on 23 September, although we would have been in a position to do so to a standard that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility enacted by Parliament.1 While we have full autonomy over the content of the economic and fiscal forecast and a legal obligation to publish two forecasts in each financial year, the Charter states that it is for the Chancellor to decide the date of publication for our forecast, given that it would normally coincide with the publication of policy announcements.

Jonathan
jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by jois »

Psamathe wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:40pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:23pm
Psamathe wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:05pm
Not all tidal power damages marine ecosystems. Severn barrage would have a big impact (which is why it's been debated back and forth for over 50 years). Other technologies (like turbines) don't have anything like the impact and would likely have a far lower impact than some of the fishing techniques now commonplace.

Ian
Turbines seem somewhat unfriendly to passing marine things, unless you wanted cod strips of course.

Is that the best validation you have" it's not worse than over fishing"
a. I didn't say over-fishing I said fishing techniques which is very different.

b. I have seen no evidence that turbines shred fish.

c. Preserving a healthy marine environment is far more complex that a single species. Some areas are more sensitive than others so there needs to be planning to minimise the impact. But even plonking them everywhere without any environmental considerations will likely cause less environmental damage that climate change will cause unless we dramatically reduce climate gas emissions pronto (which in part means not following your suggestion to keep and expand extracting an burning hydrocarbons).

Ian
The fishing techniques you refere to result in over fishing, there is no difference, it will probably calapse the eco system from the bottom up, though the report I read definely identified shredded fish as a likely out come.

This is my entire knowledge on the topic_______

Small amount of power for many billions in investment, calapsed eco systems and shredded fish, sounds a great plan, were do I sign up
Jdsk
Posts: 24635
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:41pm
Jdsk wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:50am
Stevek76 wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 11:32pm I don't think there's any full conspiracy going on, I suspect it's most likely that truss and kwarteng are just deluded incompetents who cannot see past their own extreme ideology. Truss in particular appears to think she's thatcher mk2 but has clearly bought the thatcher fan club account of 80s economics rather than the rather more nuanced reality.

That said, if the aforementioned 'credible traders' are not just made up, then it's quite possible they are also stupid enough to listen to individuals like Crispin Odey (whom Kwarteng used to work for) who despite quite publicly stating he's been shorting the £ is obviously going to make hay and tell them what they want to hear (i.e. it's not their fault) before he goes home and takes out even more short positions.

I'm not sure that's really accurate to say 'the market' that's causing the crash though, it's still entirely truss/kwartengs faults. They have near unlimited access to a wide range of views should they want to listen, they do not, as demonstrated when they sacked Tom Scholar when he inevitably told them to get off the crack.
That sounds right to me.

In our system Ministers and Prime Ministers do not have to be domain experts. But they do have to manage vast amounts of conflicting advice.

In addition to the sacking of the Permanent Secretary I'd add avoiding an OBR report, especially when it had been explicitly offered. And not recalling Parliament.
Today's letter from the OBR:
https://obr.uk//docs/dlm_uploads/Sep202 ... recast.pdf

includes:

As we set out in our letter to the Chair of the Treasury Committee on 26 August, we took steps over the summer to prepare a forecast to coincide with the election of the new Prime Minister and any subsequent fiscal policy announcements. We sent a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new Chancellor on 6 September, his first day in office. We offered, at the time, to update that forecast to take account of subsequent data and to reflect the economic and fiscal impact of any policies the Government announced in time for it to be published alongside the ‘fiscal event’ planned for later in the month.
In the event, we were not commissioned to produce an updated forecast alongside the Chancellor’s Growth Plan on 23 September, although we would have been in a position to do so to a standard that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility enacted by Parliament.1 While we have full autonomy over the content of the economic and fiscal forecast and a legal obligation to publish two forecasts in each financial year, the Charter states that it is for the Chancellor to decide the date of publication for our forecast, given that it would normally coincide with the publication of policy announcements.
"Kwasi Kwarteng will be called before parliament’s Treasury watchdog and asked to hand over independent growth forecasts... "
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -forecasts

The official invitation:
https://committees.parliament.uk/public ... 2/default/

includes:

"The fiscal impact of your Growth Plan significantly exceeds that of a typical Budget and yet there was no OBR forecast to accompany it. It is hard to conclude other than that an absence of a forecast has in some part driven the lack of confidence in the markets. Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the Government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the Government expects from the Growth Plan, including 2.5% trend growth in the medium term. Independent forecasts are an essential component of both accountability and demonstrating fiscal credibility to markets and the public."

Jonathan
Psamathe
Posts: 17648
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:46pm
Psamathe wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:40pm
jois wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:23pm

Turbines seem somewhat unfriendly to passing marine things, unless you wanted cod strips of course.

Is that the best validation you have" it's not worse than over fishing"
a. I didn't say over-fishing I said fishing techniques which is very different.

b. I have seen no evidence that turbines shred fish.

c. Preserving a healthy marine environment is far more complex that a single species. Some areas are more sensitive than others so there needs to be planning to minimise the impact. But even plonking them everywhere without any environmental considerations will likely cause less environmental damage that climate change will cause unless we dramatically reduce climate gas emissions pronto (which in part means not following your suggestion to keep and expand extracting an burning hydrocarbons).

Ian
The fishing techniques you refere to result in over fishing, there is no difference, it will probably calapse the eco system from the bottom up, though the report I read definely identified shredded fish as a likely out come.

This is my entire knowledge on the topic_______

Small amount of power for many billions in investment, calapsed eco systems and shredded fish, sounds a great plan, were do I sign up
Over fishing is a very complex subject. Just the way quota are set can determine is the MSY is stable or unstable (e.g. do you license catch or gear). Damage from certain fishing techniques destroys ecosystems rather than cause over catch. Environmental damage is very different from over fishing.

I don't doubt that turbines may kill some fish just as there are some bird strikes on wind turbines. But overall impact compared to continued and increased hydrocarbon extraction and burning makes the damage trivial. And as quoted above (that you seem to have completely ignored) "Totting everything up, the barrage, the lagoons, and the tidal stream farms could deliver something like 11 kWh/d per person (figure 14.10)." is not a bad amount of power generation.

Please provide your sources for the "small amount of power" and "billions in investment" - sources which I assume take into account how just like with other renewable generation it becomes dramatically cheaper as it becomes more widespread and also how the UK is in a position to take a lead and thus generate export potential from its expertise were we to develop the technology.

Ian
Jdsk
Posts: 24635
Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 9:02pm
Jdsk wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:41pm
Jdsk wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 8:50am That sounds right to me.

In our system Ministers and Prime Ministers do not have to be domain experts. But they do have to manage vast amounts of conflicting advice.

In addition to the sacking of the Permanent Secretary I'd add avoiding an OBR report, especially when it had been explicitly offered. And not recalling Parliament.
Today's letter from the OBR:
https://obr.uk//docs/dlm_uploads/Sep202 ... recast.pdf

includes:

As we set out in our letter to the Chair of the Treasury Committee on 26 August, we took steps over the summer to prepare a forecast to coincide with the election of the new Prime Minister and any subsequent fiscal policy announcements. We sent a draft economic and fiscal forecast to the new Chancellor on 6 September, his first day in office. We offered, at the time, to update that forecast to take account of subsequent data and to reflect the economic and fiscal impact of any policies the Government announced in time for it to be published alongside the ‘fiscal event’ planned for later in the month.
In the event, we were not commissioned to produce an updated forecast alongside the Chancellor’s Growth Plan on 23 September, although we would have been in a position to do so to a standard that satisfied the legal requirements of the Charter for Budget Responsibility enacted by Parliament.1 While we have full autonomy over the content of the economic and fiscal forecast and a legal obligation to publish two forecasts in each financial year, the Charter states that it is for the Chancellor to decide the date of publication for our forecast, given that it would normally coincide with the publication of policy announcements.
"Kwasi Kwarteng will be called before parliament’s Treasury watchdog and asked to hand over independent growth forecasts... "
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -forecasts

The official invitation:
https://committees.parliament.uk/public ... 2/default/

includes:

"The fiscal impact of your Growth Plan significantly exceeds that of a typical Budget and yet there was no OBR forecast to accompany it. It is hard to conclude other than that an absence of a forecast has in some part driven the lack of confidence in the markets. Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the Government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the Government expects from the Growth Plan, including 2.5% trend growth in the medium term. Independent forecasts are an essential component of both accountability and demonstrating fiscal credibility to markets and the public."
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with the head of Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog after failing to dampen panic in the financial markets or shore up support from Tory MPs on her radical economic plan.":
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... lm-markets

Tomorrow! We're now down to hour by hour stuff.

Jonathan
Last edited by Jdsk on 29 Sep 2022, 10:03pm, edited 2 times in total.
Psamathe
Posts: 17648
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

Jdsk wrote: 29 Sep 2022, 9:46pm ...
"Liz Truss will hold emergency talks with the head of Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog after failing to dampen panic in the financial markets or shore up support from Tory MPs on her radical economic plan.":
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... lm-markets

Tomorrow! We're now down to hour by hour stuff.

Jonathan
OBR public response (you posted above and Guardian reported) is pretty bad for Gov. - the "we provided draft in advance and could have done it all but were not asked". Shows Gov. had no intention of telling anybody the consequences of their "not a budget".

Ian
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