Are we all Trussed up...
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...
Haha. "just" is doing a huge amount of work there.
But go on, talk is through it.
How do these institutions communally decide to sell currency?
What happens when they lose money doing this ("selling below market value") is the definition of losing money.
How much money would they need to lose in order to have a material effect?
Who would pay for all of this?
Why would it have any effect, given that the value of the rouble is underpinned by sales of fossil fields for which there are ready buyers?
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...
I'm quite surprised she hasn't appeared in Kyiv yet.Jdsk wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 6:05pm Screenshot 2022-09-28 at 18.04.28.png
https://twitter.com/Rob_Merrick/status/ ... 4769120261
Jonathan
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
So she is still alive then, trying the Johnson technique!
I think the drop in income tax from 45% to 40% for earnings over £150k was the cherry on the top and certainly had a disproportionate hit for the relatively small amount of additional spend.
I think that was perhaps because it really underlined how disconnected from economic reality it showed truss/kwarteng to be.
Most of the other measures at least had some sort of logic to them whether it was tax cuts to those actually likely to spend the money or assistance with energy bills for which there is significant pressure even if there wasn't much of a plan regarding costing.
The removal of the top rate of income tax though was entirely unnecessary and has close to zero multiplier (i.e. only a small fraction returned to the treasury as most will be saved)
I think the drop in income tax from 45% to 40% for earnings over £150k was the cherry on the top and certainly had a disproportionate hit for the relatively small amount of additional spend.
I think that was perhaps because it really underlined how disconnected from economic reality it showed truss/kwarteng to be.
Most of the other measures at least had some sort of logic to them whether it was tax cuts to those actually likely to spend the money or assistance with energy bills for which there is significant pressure even if there wasn't much of a plan regarding costing.
The removal of the top rate of income tax though was entirely unnecessary and has close to zero multiplier (i.e. only a small fraction returned to the treasury as most will be saved)
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
They don't need to sell them they just need to offer it for sale, no one will buy because they think they know something they don't, and they sell too, that's called a run on the pound or what everroubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 6:06pm
Haha. "just" is doing a huge amount of work there.
But go on, talk is through it.
How do these institutions communally decide to sell currency?
What happens when they lose money doing this ("selling below market value") is the definition of losing money.
How much money would they need to lose in order to have a material effect?
Who would pay for all of this?
Why would it have any effect, given that the value of the rouble is underpinned by sales of fossil fields for which there are ready buyers?
In the short term the government raise interest rates which raises the value of what they have, if that doesn't work the government buy dollars ( from the money market at the weakened value of the pound)and use that to buy there own currency back at inflated prices.
This called short selling Google it for a fuller explination
If they decided to calapse a regime they just keep going on the understanding they can make it back and more later.its a long game and they have lots of money they created out of thin air
They decided they could make more money from communist russia than they could from Imperial russia, takes few decades but ...
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
Rory Stewart on Truss and the Tories:- https://youtu.be/d3YgpZhgrDE
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"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...
"They"jois wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 6:22pmThey don't need to sell them they just need to offer it for sale, no one will buy because they think they know something they don't, and they sell too, that's called a run on the pound or what everroubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 6:06pm
Haha. "just" is doing a huge amount of work there.
But go on, talk is through it.
How do these institutions communally decide to sell currency?
What happens when they lose money doing this ("selling below market value") is the definition of losing money.
How much money would they need to lose in order to have a material effect?
Who would pay for all of this?
Why would it have any effect, given that the value of the rouble is underpinned by sales of fossil fields for which there are ready buyers?
In the short term the government raise interest rates which raises the value of what they have, if that doesn't work the government buy dollars ( from the money market at the weakened value of the pound)and use that to buy there own currency back at inflated prices.
This called short selling Google it for a fuller explination
If they decided to calapse a regime they just keep going on the understanding they can make it back and more later.its a long game and they have lots of money they created out of thin air
They decided they could make more money from communist russia than they could from Imperial russia, takes few decades but ...
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
Yes them again I said who they were in an earlier postroubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:00pm"They"jois wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 6:22pmThey don't need to sell them they just need to offer it for sale, no one will buy because they think they know something they don't, and they sell too, that's called a run on the pound or what everroubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 6:06pm
Haha. "just" is doing a huge amount of work there.
But go on, talk is through it.
How do these institutions communally decide to sell currency?
What happens when they lose money doing this ("selling below market value") is the definition of losing money.
How much money would they need to lose in order to have a material effect?
Who would pay for all of this?
Why would it have any effect, given that the value of the rouble is underpinned by sales of fossil fields for which there are ready buyers?
In the short term the government raise interest rates which raises the value of what they have, if that doesn't work the government buy dollars ( from the money market at the weakened value of the pound)and use that to buy there own currency back at inflated prices.
This called short selling Google it for a fuller explination
If they decided to calapse a regime they just keep going on the understanding they can make it back and more later.its a long game and they have lots of money they created out of thin air
They decided they could make more money from communist russia than they could from Imperial russia, takes few decades but ...
See the BoE is rushing round buying British government bonds up with dollars to try and sure the currency up, said that would happen
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
Truss has appeared and is going round local radios for 5 min interviews tomorrow morning followed by some regional tv slots.
In other news, according to sky reporters it appears no10/11 are convinced that they're doing the right thing and that the market moves had nothing to do with Friday's mini-budget announcement.
In other news, according to sky reporters it appears no10/11 are convinced that they're doing the right thing and that the market moves had nothing to do with Friday's mini-budget announcement.
So it was fear of a labour government earlier, now it's the US?Ed Conway from Sky wrote:They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
...
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock.
Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...
You're ascribing motive, organisation and purpose to the emergent properties of independent agents aka "the market".jois wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:30pmYes them again I said who they were in an earlier postroubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:00pm"They"jois wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 6:22pm
They don't need to sell them they just need to offer it for sale, no one will buy because they think they know something they don't, and they sell too, that's called a run on the pound or what ever
In the short term the government raise interest rates which raises the value of what they have, if that doesn't work the government buy dollars ( from the money market at the weakened value of the pound)and use that to buy there own currency back at inflated prices.
This called short selling Google it for a fuller explination
If they decided to calapse a regime they just keep going on the understanding they can make it back and more later.its a long game and they have lots of money they created out of thin air
They decided they could make more money from communist russia than they could from Imperial russia, takes few decades but ...
See the BoE is rushing round buying British government bonds up with dollars to try and sure the currency up, said that would happen
There is no "they" in the terms you describe it. It's impractical, and actually illegal too for the behaviour you call for to exist.
The UK government has a delusional policy which cannot possibly succeed. The market reaction to this is a symptom, not a cause. Same principle applies to Russia.
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- Posts: 5815
- Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
They're absolutely nuts. Utterly bonkers. Moronic. Cretinous. Several bananas short of the full bunch.Stevek76 wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:39pm Truss has appeared and is going round local radios for 5 min interviews tomorrow morning followed by some regional tv slots.
In other news, according to sky reporters it appears no10/11 are convinced that they're doing the right thing and that the market moves had nothing to do with Friday's mini-budget announcement.
So it was fear of a labour government earlier, now it's the US?Ed Conway from Sky wrote:They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
...
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock.
Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
These people ascribe near magical, mystical properties to "free markets". Until, amazingly, said markets run a million miles from their nutcase delusional budget.
At which point, stunningly, it's suddenly someone else's fault "Fear of Keir Starmer!"; "US monetary policy!"
Incredible.
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
You don't think big players can conspire to rig the market ? There have been prosicutions for that, when you say"" independent" you mean major financial instutions ?roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:42pmYou're ascribing motive, organisation and purpose to the emergent properties of independent agents aka "the market".
There is no "they" in the terms you describe it. It's impractical, and actually illegal too for the behaviour you call for to exist.
The UK government has a delusional policy which cannot possibly succeed. The market reaction to this is a symptom, not a cause. Same principle applies to Russia.
But you make a good point people never do anything illegal to make money. Never happens
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...
Now you're arguing that the current crisis is a result not of government incompetence but a mysterious illegal cartel?jois wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:48pmYou don't think big players can conspire to rig the market ? There have been prosicutions for that, when you say"" independent" you mean major financial instutions ?roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:42pmYou're ascribing motive, organisation and purpose to the emergent properties of independent agents aka "the market".
There is no "they" in the terms you describe it. It's impractical, and actually illegal too for the behaviour you call for to exist.
The UK government has a delusional policy which cannot possibly succeed. The market reaction to this is a symptom, not a cause. Same principle applies to Russia.
But you make a good point people never do anything illegal to make money. Never happens
OK...
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
It's only illegal if they can prove conspiracy, other that everything is quite legalroubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:56pmNow you're arguing that the current crisis is a result not of government incompetence but a mysterious illegal cartel?jois wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:48pmYou don't think big players can conspire to rig the market ? There have been prosicutions for that, when you say"" independent" you mean major financial instutions ?roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:42pm
You're ascribing motive, organisation and purpose to the emergent properties of independent agents aka "the market".
There is no "they" in the terms you describe it. It's impractical, and actually illegal too for the behaviour you call for to exist.
The UK government has a delusional policy which cannot possibly succeed. The market reaction to this is a symptom, not a cause. Same principle applies to Russia.
But you make a good point people never do anything illegal to make money. Never happens
OK...
One of our financial crisis, it may have been the European exchange rate one.was crashed just by one guy, at least that's what he said
Last edited by jois on 28 Sep 2022, 11:05pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Are we all Trussed up...
I think they are doing all they can to protect themselves. They either admit they've completely messed-up (which means they'd have to lose their jobs) or they find some external factors to blame. And the one thing they wont to is accept any blame themselves. What I guess we'll never know is whether they know their external blame is lies and rubbish or if they are so daft they believe it.roubaixtuesday wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:47pmThey're absolutely nuts. Utterly bonkers. Moronic. Cretinous. Several bananas short of the full bunch.Stevek76 wrote: ↑28 Sep 2022, 10:39pm Truss has appeared and is going round local radios for 5 min interviews tomorrow morning followed by some regional tv slots.
In other news, according to sky reporters it appears no10/11 are convinced that they're doing the right thing and that the market moves had nothing to do with Friday's mini-budget announcement.
So it was fear of a labour government earlier, now it's the US?Ed Conway from Sky wrote:They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
...
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock.
Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
These people ascribe near magical, mystical properties to "free markets". Until, amazingly, said markets run a million miles from their nutcase delusional budget.
At which point, stunningly, it's suddenly someone else's fault "Fear of Keir Starmer!"; "US monetary policy!"
Incredible.
And they are using the "repeat it often enough in enough places and people will start to believe it".
It's all very disappointing that our Government has sunk to such incompetence and such stupidity.
Ian