Are we all Trussed up...

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roubaixtuesday
Posts: 5815
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by roubaixtuesday »

jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 4:46pm
It just need a few of the large institutions to decided that's what they are doing. It really only needs one to start selling curancy at well below its market value and the trade in that currency goes through the floor.

Haha. "just" is doing a huge amount of work there.

But go on, talk is through it.

How do these institutions communally decide to sell currency?

What happens when they lose money doing this ("selling below market value") is the definition of losing money.

How much money would they need to lose in order to have a material effect?

Who would pay for all of this?

Why would it have any effect, given that the value of the rouble is underpinned by sales of fossil fields for which there are ready buyers?
roubaixtuesday
Posts: 5815
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by roubaixtuesday »

Jdsk wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 6:05pm Screenshot 2022-09-28 at 18.04.28.png
https://twitter.com/Rob_Merrick/status/ ... 4769120261

Jonathan
I'm quite surprised she hasn't appeared in Kyiv yet.
Stevek76
Posts: 2085
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Stevek76 »

So she is still alive then, trying the Johnson technique!

I think the drop in income tax from 45% to 40% for earnings over £150k was the cherry on the top and certainly had a disproportionate hit for the relatively small amount of additional spend.

I think that was perhaps because it really underlined how disconnected from economic reality it showed truss/kwarteng to be.

Most of the other measures at least had some sort of logic to them whether it was tax cuts to those actually likely to spend the money or assistance with energy bills for which there is significant pressure even if there wasn't much of a plan regarding costing.

The removal of the top rate of income tax though was entirely unnecessary and has close to zero multiplier (i.e. only a small fraction returned to the treasury as most will be saved)
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by jois »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 6:06pm
jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 4:46pm
It just need a few of the large institutions to decided that's what they are doing. It really only needs one to start selling curancy at well below its market value and the trade in that currency goes through the floor.

Haha. "just" is doing a huge amount of work there.

But go on, talk is through it.

How do these institutions communally decide to sell currency?

What happens when they lose money doing this ("selling below market value") is the definition of losing money.

How much money would they need to lose in order to have a material effect?

Who would pay for all of this?

Why would it have any effect, given that the value of the rouble is underpinned by sales of fossil fields for which there are ready buyers?
They don't need to sell them they just need to offer it for sale, no one will buy because they think they know something they don't, and they sell too, that's called a run on the pound or what ever

In the short term the government raise interest rates which raises the value of what they have, if that doesn't work the government buy dollars ( from the money market at the weakened value of the pound)and use that to buy there own currency back at inflated prices.



This called short selling Google it for a fuller explination

If they decided to calapse a regime they just keep going on the understanding they can make it back and more later.its a long game and they have lots of money they created out of thin air

They decided they could make more money from communist russia than they could from Imperial russia, takes few decades but ...
reohn2
Posts: 45158
Joined: 26 Jun 2009, 8:21pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by reohn2 »

Rory Stewart on Truss and the Tories:- https://youtu.be/d3YgpZhgrDE
-----------------------------------------------------------
"All we are not stares back at what we are"
W H Auden
roubaixtuesday
Posts: 5815
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by roubaixtuesday »

jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 6:22pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 6:06pm
jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 4:46pm
It just need a few of the large institutions to decided that's what they are doing. It really only needs one to start selling curancy at well below its market value and the trade in that currency goes through the floor.

Haha. "just" is doing a huge amount of work there.

But go on, talk is through it.

How do these institutions communally decide to sell currency?

What happens when they lose money doing this ("selling below market value") is the definition of losing money.

How much money would they need to lose in order to have a material effect?

Who would pay for all of this?

Why would it have any effect, given that the value of the rouble is underpinned by sales of fossil fields for which there are ready buyers?
They don't need to sell them they just need to offer it for sale, no one will buy because they think they know something they don't, and they sell too, that's called a run on the pound or what ever

In the short term the government raise interest rates which raises the value of what they have, if that doesn't work the government buy dollars ( from the money market at the weakened value of the pound)and use that to buy there own currency back at inflated prices.



This called short selling Google it for a fuller explination

If they decided to calapse a regime they just keep going on the understanding they can make it back and more later.its a long game and they have lots of money they created out of thin air

They decided they could make more money from communist russia than they could from Imperial russia, takes few decades but ...
"They"
jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by jois »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:00pm
jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 6:22pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 6:06pm


Haha. "just" is doing a huge amount of work there.

But go on, talk is through it.

How do these institutions communally decide to sell currency?

What happens when they lose money doing this ("selling below market value") is the definition of losing money.

How much money would they need to lose in order to have a material effect?

Who would pay for all of this?

Why would it have any effect, given that the value of the rouble is underpinned by sales of fossil fields for which there are ready buyers?
They don't need to sell them they just need to offer it for sale, no one will buy because they think they know something they don't, and they sell too, that's called a run on the pound or what ever

In the short term the government raise interest rates which raises the value of what they have, if that doesn't work the government buy dollars ( from the money market at the weakened value of the pound)and use that to buy there own currency back at inflated prices.



This called short selling Google it for a fuller explination

If they decided to calapse a regime they just keep going on the understanding they can make it back and more later.its a long game and they have lots of money they created out of thin air

They decided they could make more money from communist russia than they could from Imperial russia, takes few decades but ...
"They"
Yes them again I said who they were in an earlier post

See the BoE is rushing round buying British government bonds up with dollars to try and sure the currency up, said that would happen
Stevek76
Posts: 2085
Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Stevek76 »

Truss has appeared and is going round local radios for 5 min interviews tomorrow morning followed by some regional tv slots.

In other news, according to sky reporters it appears no10/11 are convinced that they're doing the right thing and that the market moves had nothing to do with Friday's mini-budget announcement.
Ed Conway from Sky wrote:They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
...
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock.
Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
So it was fear of a labour government earlier, now it's the US?
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
roubaixtuesday
Posts: 5815
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by roubaixtuesday »

jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:30pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:00pm
jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 6:22pm

They don't need to sell them they just need to offer it for sale, no one will buy because they think they know something they don't, and they sell too, that's called a run on the pound or what ever

In the short term the government raise interest rates which raises the value of what they have, if that doesn't work the government buy dollars ( from the money market at the weakened value of the pound)and use that to buy there own currency back at inflated prices.



This called short selling Google it for a fuller explination

If they decided to calapse a regime they just keep going on the understanding they can make it back and more later.its a long game and they have lots of money they created out of thin air

They decided they could make more money from communist russia than they could from Imperial russia, takes few decades but ...
"They"
Yes them again I said who they were in an earlier post

See the BoE is rushing round buying British government bonds up with dollars to try and sure the currency up, said that would happen
You're ascribing motive, organisation and purpose to the emergent properties of independent agents aka "the market".

There is no "they" in the terms you describe it. It's impractical, and actually illegal too for the behaviour you call for to exist.

The UK government has a delusional policy which cannot possibly succeed. The market reaction to this is a symptom, not a cause. Same principle applies to Russia.
roubaixtuesday
Posts: 5815
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by roubaixtuesday »

Stevek76 wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:39pm Truss has appeared and is going round local radios for 5 min interviews tomorrow morning followed by some regional tv slots.

In other news, according to sky reporters it appears no10/11 are convinced that they're doing the right thing and that the market moves had nothing to do with Friday's mini-budget announcement.
Ed Conway from Sky wrote:They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
...
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock.
Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
So it was fear of a labour government earlier, now it's the US?
They're absolutely nuts. Utterly bonkers. Moronic. Cretinous. Several bananas short of the full bunch.

These people ascribe near magical, mystical properties to "free markets". Until, amazingly, said markets run a million miles from their nutcase delusional budget.

At which point, stunningly, it's suddenly someone else's fault "Fear of Keir Starmer!"; "US monetary policy!"

Incredible.
jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by jois »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:42pm
jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:30pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:00pm

"They"
Yes them again I said who they were in an earlier post

See the BoE is rushing round buying British government bonds up with dollars to try and sure the currency up, said that would happen
You're ascribing motive, organisation and purpose to the emergent properties of independent agents aka "the market".

There is no "they" in the terms you describe it. It's impractical, and actually illegal too for the behaviour you call for to exist.

The UK government has a delusional policy which cannot possibly succeed. The market reaction to this is a symptom, not a cause. Same principle applies to Russia.
You don't think big players can conspire to rig the market ? There have been prosicutions for that, when you say"" independent" you mean major financial instutions ?

But you make a good point people never do anything illegal to make money. Never happens
roubaixtuesday
Posts: 5815
Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by roubaixtuesday »

jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:48pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:42pm
jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:30pm

Yes them again I said who they were in an earlier post

See the BoE is rushing round buying British government bonds up with dollars to try and sure the currency up, said that would happen
You're ascribing motive, organisation and purpose to the emergent properties of independent agents aka "the market".

There is no "they" in the terms you describe it. It's impractical, and actually illegal too for the behaviour you call for to exist.

The UK government has a delusional policy which cannot possibly succeed. The market reaction to this is a symptom, not a cause. Same principle applies to Russia.
You don't think big players can conspire to rig the market ? There have been prosicutions for that, when you say"" independent" you mean major financial instutions ?

But you make a good point people never do anything illegal to make money. Never happens
Now you're arguing that the current crisis is a result not of government incompetence but a mysterious illegal cartel?

OK...
jois
Posts: 334
Joined: 22 Sep 2022, 12:29pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by jois »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:56pm
jois wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:48pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:42pm

You're ascribing motive, organisation and purpose to the emergent properties of independent agents aka "the market".

There is no "they" in the terms you describe it. It's impractical, and actually illegal too for the behaviour you call for to exist.

The UK government has a delusional policy which cannot possibly succeed. The market reaction to this is a symptom, not a cause. Same principle applies to Russia.
You don't think big players can conspire to rig the market ? There have been prosicutions for that, when you say"" independent" you mean major financial instutions ?

But you make a good point people never do anything illegal to make money. Never happens
Now you're arguing that the current crisis is a result not of government incompetence but a mysterious illegal cartel?

OK...
It's only illegal if they can prove conspiracy, other that everything is quite legal

One of our financial crisis, it may have been the European exchange rate one.was crashed just by one guy, at least that's what he said
Last edited by jois on 28 Sep 2022, 11:05pm, edited 1 time in total.
Psamathe
Posts: 17650
Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:47pm
Stevek76 wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:39pm Truss has appeared and is going round local radios for 5 min interviews tomorrow morning followed by some regional tv slots.

In other news, according to sky reporters it appears no10/11 are convinced that they're doing the right thing and that the market moves had nothing to do with Friday's mini-budget announcement.
Ed Conway from Sky wrote:They have spoken to credible FX people and market traders, who have assured them it simply “doesn’t add up” that their fiscal package could have caused this market reaction. They believe the main explanation for these ructions is US monetary policy.
...
One message you’ll be hearing a LOT in the coming wks: if it weren’t for govt’s mini-Budget (and by this they seem mainly to mean the energy package) UK would have been facing a major economic shock.
Markets can do what they want; they believe theirs is the right plan.
So it was fear of a labour government earlier, now it's the US?
They're absolutely nuts. Utterly bonkers. Moronic. Cretinous. Several bananas short of the full bunch.

These people ascribe near magical, mystical properties to "free markets". Until, amazingly, said markets run a million miles from their nutcase delusional budget.

At which point, stunningly, it's suddenly someone else's fault "Fear of Keir Starmer!"; "US monetary policy!"

Incredible.
I think they are doing all they can to protect themselves. They either admit they've completely messed-up (which means they'd have to lose their jobs) or they find some external factors to blame. And the one thing they wont to is accept any blame themselves. What I guess we'll never know is whether they know their external blame is lies and rubbish or if they are so daft they believe it.

And they are using the "repeat it often enough in enough places and people will start to believe it".

It's all very disappointing that our Government has sunk to such incompetence and such stupidity.

Ian
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