Are we all Trussed up...

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djnotts
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by djnotts »

@Cugel, having a rant.

Saved me the trouble, so can I join it please?
All spot on. Good man.
reohn2
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by reohn2 »

djnotts wrote: 24 Oct 2022, 1:34pm @Cugel, having a rant.

Saved me the trouble, so can I join it please?
All spot on. Good man.
Seconded and Debs is spot on too. :wink:
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Psamathe
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

So we head off on yet another different policy direction that wasn't in the manifesto the country voted on last General Election. Policies that the electorate had no choice over created by a Government the electorate had no knowledge of and is completely different from that offered at the last General election. Yet we are so ready to be critical of regimes like China, North Korea, even Russia over their "democratic failings".

Ian
Bonefishblues
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Bonefishblues »

The comparison is a s t r e t c h e d one I think, even with recent events :D
Dingdong
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Dingdong »

Well that's my bet safe, and the new LG air source bought and payed for and then some. I'm only sorry I didn't take Truss to leave office before Xmas a week into her 'reign'...

At 33/1.... :mrgreen:

Odds of a GE this year are currently 10/1, which is definitely worth a flutter.
Psamathe
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Psamathe »

Bonefishblues wrote: 24 Oct 2022, 4:42pm The comparison is a s t r e t c h e d one I think, even with recent events :D
Maybe but we have a new leader forming a new Government with new policies and not a single vote was cast anywhere. Even China's new leader got some votes in some sort of election, etc. But our leader no proposer, no seconder, no votes, nothing.

Ian
Jdsk
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Jdsk »

"Why member ballots for party leaders threaten parliamentary democracy":
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/poli ... on-members

Jonathan
PH
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by PH »

Dingdong wrote: 24 Oct 2022, 5:24pm Well that's my bet safe,
This bet?
I've placed an early bet on the outcome of the Tory leadership challenge. I got 11/2 on who I believe is an outstanding candidate whom the party will eventually rally behind.
What bookmaker was stupid enough to give you those odds? Can I have their address so I can get rich as well? Or are they only contactable via the bankruptcy court? Those odds imply a probability of 15%, not even Johnson's most ardent supporters thought Sunak's chances so low!
Betting on Sunak opened at 11/10 (2.1) and only shortened from there. Even a week before Truss resigned Sunak was only 7/3 (3.33) to be the next PM. If I'd found an arbitrage bet like that I could have better than doubled my money before a nomination was made.
toontra
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by toontra »

PH wrote: 25 Oct 2022, 1:04pm
Dingdong wrote: 24 Oct 2022, 5:24pm Well that's my bet safe,
This bet?
I've placed an early bet on the outcome of the Tory leadership challenge. I got 11/2 on who I believe is an outstanding candidate whom the party will eventually rally behind.
What bookmaker was stupid enough to give you those odds? Can I have their address so I can get rich as well? Or are they only contactable via the bankruptcy court?
:lol:
Dingdong
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Joined: 22 Apr 2022, 4:59pm

Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Dingdong »

PH wrote: 25 Oct 2022, 1:04pm
Dingdong wrote: 24 Oct 2022, 5:24pm Well that's my bet safe,
This bet?
I've placed an early bet on the outcome of the Tory leadership challenge. I got 11/2 on who I believe is an outstanding candidate whom the party will eventually rally behind.
What bookmaker was stupid enough to give you those odds? Can I have their address so I can get rich as well? Or are they only contactable via the bankruptcy court? Those odds imply a probability of 15%, not even Johnson's most ardent supporters thought Sunak's chances so low!
Betting on Sunak opened at 11/10 (2.1) and only shortened from there. Even a week before Truss resigned Sunak was only 7/3 (3.33) to be the next PM. If I'd found an arbitrage bet like that I could have better than doubled my money before a nomination was made.
Like I said, I placed an early bet. I called Brexit 4 months before the vote, on very good odds. There are a lot of smaller, not particularly bright bookies around, if you can find them. Still 10/1 available on Sunak taking an early bath from the Prime ministers job before Xmas, I'll be taking a punt.

If you are more pleasant, and less condescending in future (you clearly know very little about betting or odds) I might be willing to share my tips. There's money to be made on political and world event betting, if you do your research and have at least some inside track. It's a good idea to buy some drinks for your local MP, they tend to know a lot more than they let on. Until drunk, of course :lol:
Tangled Metal
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Tangled Metal »

Interesting the idea of second jobs. The 4th highest earner in outside jobs is Dan jarvis labour. The majority of earnings are one off talks which was what made Theresa May the second highest Ramsey 2019 to 2022. Labour MPs seem to have links 27th law firms with Mischon de Reya being big payers of labour time. Kier Starmer was involved with them before becoming labour leader and considered joining them rather than giving talks to them and the odd bit of something else.

Mahmood khalid I think it's the name of a Midlands labour mp I think who's registered interests with a lobbying firm. However I do wonder if the work for legal firms have an element of pr or lobbying or other questionable action. And I do not think any union work counts as much different to lobbying work. There used to be a few union bought and paid for MPs. Iirc there was a bit of a scandal over a Scottish labour mp and a union a good few years back before SMP took over most of the Scottish Labour constituencies.

Of course there's one thing about the money and another thing about the time spent. One of the biggest second jobbers in terms of hours is a labour mp, labour MPs seem to do high hours but for lower hourly rates. Iirc one labour registered the equivalent of just under 4 working days a week in second jobs. The old system that got changed in the 90s was actually designed to allow second jobs to carry on. 2:30pm starts allowed for QCs to still work in Chambers or other legal work. That was probably why you got a lot of QCs in Westminster.

Let's be honest here, shouldn't being an MP be a full time occupation?
PH
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by PH »

Tangled Metal wrote: 25 Oct 2022, 7:29pm The 4th highest earner in outside jobs is Dan jarvis labour.
Have you got a source for that? I suspect it includes the earnings from when he was the S. Yorkshire Mayor, he took the job when it was unpaid and an independent review said it should have an eighty grand salary! He said at the time he'd give it to charity, but I haven't followed it, either way, he didn't stand for re-election.
I recall reading that 45 out of the top 50 earning MP's are Tory, and that half of all MP's extra earnings is from 13 of them, that shouldn't surprise anyone. Plus there's the devious shares deals, where wealth is increased without taking an income. MP's having second jobs is no bad thing in itself (Some of them do enough harm part time) some have very worthwhile employment, like Dr Rosena Chantelle Allin-Khan. I'm more concerned about how those jobs influence their parliamentary work.
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NATURAL ANKLING
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by NATURAL ANKLING »

Hi,
Havent read all the posts.........none actually.

So what would a hung parliment acheive...................................

More chaos :evil:

Are we so sure that the fickle voting plebs will just go "A change is as good as a rest"..........."change for change's sake"....................
You might as well toss a coin................
NA Thinks Just End 2 End Return + Bivvy - Some day Soon I hope
You'll Still Find Me At The Top Of A Hill
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mjr
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by mjr »

NATURAL ANKLING wrote: 25 Oct 2022, 11:46pm Hi,
Havent read all the posts.........none actually.

So what would a hung parliment acheive...................................

More chaos :evil:
Is more chaos than Truss possible without something totally bonkers like a landslide government declaring war on France?
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
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Jdsk
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Re: Are we all Trussed up...

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 25 Oct 2022, 10:16am "Why member ballots for party leaders threaten parliamentary democracy":
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/poli ... on-members
"Prime Ministers, Party Members, and the Efficient Secret":
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2022/10 ... nt-secret/

Jonathan
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