Cycling UK Forum

"Britain and the US are poor societies with some very rich people" https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e ... 51baa68945

(Google headline and then open the result in a private browsing window if paywall is an issue)

In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade.

Note the flatline of median wage since 2016. It is hard to see how truss's current ideology is going to help this.

Stevek76 wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 11:19am
Note the flatline of median wage since 2016. It is hard to see how truss's current ideology is going to help this.

Stuff will "trickle down". It won't be money or any other kind of wealth trcklin', just the vitriol of the political & financial elite for the "undeserving poor", who are swelling in number by the minute.

They'll also trickle down a few new laws, to suppress any dissention but also to bolster their already vast edifice of law allowing this tiny elite to gather and keep power and riches to themselves alone.

We are indeed subjects - not so much of the new king or the old queen but of an Establishment that's based on the model of the old aristocracy (and some of the surviving old aristocrats) in the form of a hugely privileged powerful cabal centred on Big Business and The City, along with their political and media enablers.

Our citizenship is nearly gone, with only the 5 year opportunity to vote for the red clowns or the blue clowns, neither of which are going to dismantle the circus and its various distracting spectacles.

Cugel

Cugel wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 1:38pm

Stevek76 wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 11:19am
Note the flatline of median wage since 2016. It is hard to see how truss's current ideology is going to help this.

Stuff will "trickle down". It won't be money or any other kind of wealth trcklin', just the vitriol of the political & financial elite for the "undeserving poor", who are swelling in number by the minute.

They'll also trickle down a few new laws, to suppress any dissention but also to bolster their already vast edifice of law allowing this tiny elite to gather and keep power and riches to themselves alone.

We are indeed subjects - not so much of the new king or the old queen but of an Establishment that's based on the model of the old aristocracy (and some of the surviving old aristocrats) in the form of a hugely privileged powerful cabal centred on Big Business and The City, along with their political and media enablers.

Our citizenship is nearly gone, with only the 5 year opportunity to vote for the red clowns or the blue clowns, neither of which are going to dismantle the circus and its various distracting spectacles.

Cugel

I've been smelling psst trickling down my back since 1979(easing slightly between '97 and '08)though became a deluge since and at present I'm drowning in it!

Cugel wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 11:04am Is there any chance that events will bring both voters and those they vote for back to some sort of sense (or consensus) akin to The Post-War Settlement that took hold following the trauma of the first half of C20th with its two world wars along with the intervening economic crash?

No, probably not till after WWIII.
There's been a Global shift in politics, which the Tory party is determined to be at the front of, but we'd be very much mistaken to think it's a UK issue. We don't have to look far for other examples, Sweden's neo-Nazi SD party this week became the countries second largest and leads the governing coalition, a warning for those who think PR is the answer.

It looks like Ms Tuss will also be facing some resistance from within her own party

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/18/liz-truss-policies-tory-mps-open-goal-labour wrote:Tory MPs fear Liz Truss’s policies will create a ‘complete open goal’ for Labour
...
Among some Tory MPs, there is already disbelief that Truss will go through with an economic programme they believe opens up clear ground for Labour to move into – framing the Tories as fiscally incontinent and favouring the wealthiest over average households.

Key among the concerns are £30bn in tax cuts that will disproportionately benefit the wealthy, the removal of green levies set to dent the Conservatives’ eco credentials and the end of a cap on bankers’ bonuses.

Tory MPs are already listing the campaigns they will face from opponents come the autumn.

“The removal of the green levies on fuel and the opening up of fracking – the whole environmental movement will start campaigning against Conservatives, even though we’ve been quite green,” said one MP, adding: “The lines of political attack for Labour are incredibly clear. Bigger bonuses for bankers. The cut in national insurance will primarily help people on higher incomes.

“The freezing of energy bills primarily helps people on higher incomes because energy bills are bigger. None of this is targeted. Honestly, it’s creating a complete open goal for Labour politically.”

Another warns that the spending splurge on tax cuts – which Truss and chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng will frame as part of a dedication to growing the economy – will hit the Conservatives’ key calling card. “Fiscal prudence, or sound money, is one of the defining characteristics of conservatism,” they said. “We are a party of sound money or nothing.”

While some wonder privately if Kwarteng is secretly working for the Labour party, one former minister dismisses the idea. “I totally disagree,” they said. “There is nothing secret about it.
...

But, without names it's difficult to know if it's just a couple of Conservative MPs or enough to have an impact.

Ian

All this might be creating an open goal for Labour but there's nobody on the ball.
Tim

Tim Holman wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 6:42pm All this might be creating an open goal for Labour but there's nobody on the ball.
Tim

Well, red clowns are just as likely to score a home goal as the blue clowns even if they do get a kick of the ball. The only difference is that the blue clowns have made a deal with some sort of gambling syndicate in The City, to throw the game, so home goals come natchl to them. The red clowns just copy the blues 'cos the blues seem to be in possession of the ball for longer. They seem to have no idea what the objective of the game is (or should be).

Cugel, pushing an analogy far too far.

PH wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 4:40pm We don't have to look far for other examples, Sweden's neo-Nazi SD party this week became the countries second largest and leads the governing coalition, a warning for those who think PR is the answer.

The answer to what? At any rate I'm not sure how a populist right party getting 20.9% of the seats on 20.5% of the vote is a warning about PR when we've got a populist right party governing unilaterally with 55% of the seats from 42% of the vote.

Also there is, at present, no governing coalition, negotiations are still ongoing.

That aside i think care is needed before conflating any shift in politics across different countries, SD voters are quite different demographically than Tory ones, particularly if we look at current voting intention here were it is starker than ever that the core conservative support is 65+ and relatively wealthy (largely due to property ownership).

SD has picked up quite a bit of younger vote and its voters are also quite heavily male.

Stevek76 wrote: 19 Sep 2022, 12:08am

PH wrote: 18 Sep 2022, 4:40pm We don't have to look far for other examples, Sweden's neo-Nazi SD party this week became the countries second largest and leads the governing coalition, a warning for those who think PR is the answer.

The answer to what?

The answer to the frequently made point on this forum that PR would solve the current issues. It's just as likely, as this result shows, to give voice to even more extremest views, and whether formally a part of a coalition or not, any government would need to pander to them to govern.

That aside i think care is needed before conflating any shift in politics across different countries, SD voters are quite different demographically than Tory ones, particularly if we look at current voting intention here were it is starker than ever that the core conservative support is 65+ and relatively wealthy (largely due to property ownership).

I'm not very trusting of polls about people intentions, I've yet to see one get it right. Far better IMO to look at what has been rather than what people presume to come. The last GE saw the age and demographic of the Tory vote change, certainly the older population is more likely to vote for them, but the age when voters are more likely to vote Tory than Labour fell to below forty the first time and the the relationship between wealth and voting patterns wasn't reflected by that result.
My point was that although this thread is about the UK and Truss, it needs to be viewed in a Global context, pick out the differences between countries all you like, I'd be surprised if anyone couldn't see the trend. How many examples would you like?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs wrote:...The lowest paid stand to gain just 63p a month while the richest could get back £150 a month from tax cuts likely to be outlined by the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, this week, analysis has found.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has produced data suggesting the full reversal of the rise in national insurance is likely to benefit those who earn more than £100,000 the most and barely help the poorest 3m households.
...

Anybody surprised?

Ian

"Anybody surprised?"

No.

djnotts wrote: 19 Sep 2022, 4:06pm "Anybody surprised?"

No.

+1 Tory nasty party in full swing.The word to describe them is "evil"

PH wrote: 19 Sep 2022, 12:28pm The answer to the frequently made point on this forum that PR would solve the current issues. It's just as likely, as this result shows, to give voice to even more extremest views, and whether formally a part of a coalition or not, any government would need to pander to them to govern

I'm not sure anyone's claimed it will solve everything, however FPTP does appear to exacerbate matters. It's all well and fine for the newspapers to talk about how extreme SD are, much as they did about Geert Wilders/PVV in the netherlands ten years ago (and didn't that 'rise of the far right' there turn out to be a damp squib?), but the reality is that the policy position they stood on is only extreme relative to that country's political spectrum. It's really rather tame compared to what the conservatives have been doing to refugees and immigrants for the last 6 years or so and particularly current policy.

The far right has had successes here that SD could only dream of. I think it's far more preferable for any such party to get clear and open proportionate representation than be forced to operate via subterfuge of the relevant party of the FPTP duopoly (not to mention it's simply fair, no matter how distasteful we might find some views). SD had to moderate their position considerably from their historic roots to get themselves up to 20% of the vote and will have to moderate further as part of any governing coalition negotiations. They will also get exposure which brings with it the risk of losing the less committed support when any masks slip (and SD have managed a couple already)

PH wrote: 19 Sep 2022, 12:28pm I'm not very trusting of polls about people intentions, I've yet to see one get it right.

Eh? Pollsters like yougov and opinium were within margin of error the last two elections, even when they 'mess up' it's not like they've been 10%+ off in the last decade or so, it's mostly because it's been a close election and they've happened to fall the wrong side, e.g. brexit where many pollsters were actually predicting 'too close to call' but because journalists like a headline and most of them are allergic to mathematics, they reported it as 'remain predicted to win'.

Anyway, the lab/con break even age did not go sub 40 in 2019, that was actually a yougov estimate that was a bit off the mark (see BES results). The 'first time' part is headline hyperbole as well, makes it sound like age has long been a dominant predictor of voting intention in this country when actually it really has only been so from the brexit referendum onwards and whilst any polling should always be considered with the limitations it has, the evidence is fairly overwhelming that the conservatives have largely been shedding the less elderly voters that they picked up in 2019 and that political views on a large range of issues are now heavily split by age. This is really quite different to parties like SD, which when I say they've picked up younger voters, I'm talking about 20s and first time voters, not those trying to avoid middle age.

and I really don't think there is a global trend, plenty like germany, ireland and finland that have swung away from such things at their most recent elections and as noted, we've had this fear before only a decade-ish ago when parties like PVV, BNP etc were on the rise.

So Truss thinks cuttig Corporation Tax is going to "unleash an investment boom". But when it's been done and failed it reminds me of the definition of stupidity.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/20/uk-business-investment-lowest-in-g7-corporation-tax-cuts-ippr wrote:
Liz Truss warned corporation tax cuts have not fuelled investment
‘Race to the bottom’ on tax on company profits has failed to boost economic growth, says IPPR
Business investment in the UK fell to the lowest rate in the G7 group of wealthy nations despite corporation tax cuts, the government has been warned, as ministers prepare £30bn of giveaways targeted at companies and higher-income workers.

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said a “race to the bottom” on the headline tax rate on company profits had failed to boost investment and economic growth in Britain over the past 15 years.

Liz Truss, the prime minister, and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, argue that lower rates of corporation tax could unleash an investment boom in Britain to help drive up economic growth towards a target rate of 2.5% a year. Kwarteng will confirm more detail around the tax cuts on Friday at a planned “fiscal event” or mini-budget.

However, the IPPR said slashing the headline rate from 30% in 2007 to 19% in 2019, orchestrated by the former chancellor, George Osborne, did not spur higher private investment or faster economic growth.

Despite the repeated tax cuts to the lowest rate in a century, the UK fell behind Italy and Canada to rank with the lowest private sector investment in the G7 as a share of national income.
...

Ian

The UK/US trade deal won't be happening for "years" apparently.
What happened to all those great Brexit deals we were promised?