Having escaped COVID all this time ...

[Psamathe]

But, as of now that means that the risk is doubled. Risk from flu unchanged and additional almost the same risk from Covid.

Ian

[roubaixtuesday]

But, as of now that means that the risk is doubled. Risk from flu unchanged and additional almost the same risk from Covid.

Ian

Only for over 60s. And I'd expect to covid risk to continue to drop as (1) treatments improve (2) the remaining fraction people with no immunity drops due to infections and vaccinations and (3) the most vulnerable to it have died from it already, so measured lethality drops.

(I know the last is rather brutal, but it is undoubtedly true, though I don't know how large the effect is)

[Dingdong]

I've gotten off quite lightly I think. Day 7 and most of the symptoms have cleared up (still can't smell or taste anything, still coughing a fair bit). I suppose it could have been an awful lot worse, especially if this occurred in the middle of winter. Apart from the horrendous nights of absolutely no sleep, it's not been that awful, though I would definitely not recommend anyone to try and get Covid deliberately.

It's not a walk in the park, that's for sure

[mjr]

I've gotten off quite lightly I think. Day 7 and most of the symptoms have cleared up (still can't smell or taste anything, still coughing a fair bit). I suppose it could have been an awful lot worse, especially if this occurred in the middle of winter. Apart from the horrendous nights of absolutely no sleep, it's not been that awful, though I would definitely not recommend anyone to try and get Covid deliberately.

It's not a walk in the park, that's for sure

Amen. Day 10 here, still coughing but testing negative since yesterday. First day I've not been exhausted by 30mins of gentle physical activity, too.

It's still a lottery that I'd rather not play again.

[Dingdong]

I've gotten off quite lightly I think. Day 7 and most of the symptoms have cleared up (still can't smell or taste anything, still coughing a fair bit). I suppose it could have been an awful lot worse, especially if this occurred in the middle of winter. Apart from the horrendous nights of absolutely no sleep, it's not been that awful, though I would definitely not recommend anyone to try and get Covid deliberately.

It's not a walk in the park, that's for sure

Amen. Day 10 here, still coughing but testing negative since yesterday. First day I've not been exhausted by 30mins of gentle physical activity, too.

It's still a lottery that I'd rather not play again.

I went a bit stir crazy and took a walk down by the river this evening, and almost instantly regretted it. Super weak all the way home (a mile) and shaking like a puppy now, I don't think this going to be a straightforward road to recovery. Really much worse than any flu I've ever had, and I've had some belters

[Nearholmer]

It's still a lottery that I'd rather not play again.

Very well put.

took a walk down by the river this evening, and almost instantly regretted it

Almost exactly mirrors my experience at the same stage. I got c400 metres along the canal towpath before shuffling back knackered.

But, to reassure you, stamina does return, you just have to build-up really gently. Once I felt OK to get on my bike, I started by going 1 mile really slowly, then the next day 2 miles, and the third day 3 miles, and so on, so that a month on I did 30 miles, then I dropped back to cycling every second day, but increasing the mileage by 2 or 3 miles each time. It was all a bit tedious, but it seemed to work.

[Cowsham]

Because that's a logarithmic scale it looks like there's not a lot of difference between old and young infection to fatality ratio but there certainly is when you examine the figures ie the log scale flattens that curve substantially.

It's a very small percentage of infection fatality ratio in people under 20. It's difficult to figure how they would have known the numbers of children infected especially early in the pandemic due to the huge numbers of asymptomatic children so I'd say there's a lot of guesswork or estimations put into the younger ages figures.

The one thing we know is that there was a lot of transmission in schools. It took them a long time to acknowledge this but it seemed obvious to me early on.

Swine flu had a bigger effect on the young but since the damage to older people hadn't the same divergence in ratio as c19 the overall death toll was much less.

[djnotts]

I escaped until June:

"....tricky little virus, disentangling symptoms from covid and other illnesses a problem. Distinction between lingering and long seems vague.
Contracted probably on 24 June (crowded, unmasked (except for us and one other couple), flight home from Faro), any symptoms easily viewed as post-holiday, because a family contact with it we tested on 30 June - positive on both types of test. Bit weary, a cough for me (as always because of copd), upset tummy for herself, but I cycled every day. Tested negative by 6 July.
Back to normal apart from bit slower on bike, BUT that could be standard copd worsening or that impacted by covid. Some ache/pain in ribs, could be lingering covid or, given comorbidities, sudden onset lung cancer - referred for chest x-ray next Monday.
Last Saturday I had to settle for 35 rather than 45 miles, again could be covid/copd or much worse.
This could run and run for many people"

Just cos I was lucky once, doesn't make me complacent. 5th jab on Monday next for me.

[Nearholmer]

Because that's a logarithmic scale it looks like there's not a lot of difference between old and young infection to fatality ratio

A very useful way of looking at is one that Prof Spiegelhalter pointed out early in the pandemic: if you caught it, the risk of dying from it was very roughy the same as the risk of dying in the same year from all other causes added together. So, for a young person the total risk was c2x a very low number risk figure, whereas for an elderly person it was c2x an already large background probability of demise.

The multiplier has clearly changed (reduced one would hope) as a result of vaccination, acquired immunity, and changes in variant, but the basic principle remains the same, which is why the booster campaigns move down the demographic each time (as well as prioritising people who are vulnerable for other reasons).

[Cowsham]

I escaped until June:

"....tricky little virus, disentangling symptoms from covid and other illnesses a problem. Distinction between lingering and long seems vague.
Contracted probably on 24 June (crowded, unmasked (except for us and one other couple), flight home from Faro), any symptoms easily viewed as post-holiday, because a family contact with it we tested on 30 June - positive on both types of test. Bit weary, a cough for me (as always because of copd), upset tummy for herself, but I cycled every day. Tested negative by 6 July.
Back to normal apart from bit slower on bike, BUT that could be standard copd worsening or that impacted by covid. Some ache/pain in ribs, could be lingering covid or, given comorbidities, sudden onset lung cancer - referred for chest x-ray next Monday.
Last Saturday I had to settle for 35 rather than 45 miles, again could be covid/copd or much worse.
This could run and run for many people"

Just cos I was lucky once, doesn't make me complacent. 5th jab on Monday next for me.

Wishing you all the best for the xray results.

[djnotts]

"Wishing you all the best for the xray results."

Thank you. I should have made it clear that I was repeating an earlier post because it seemed relevant here. My x-ray was clear. (It was telling I think that in a similar copd event some years ago I waited 2 days for an x-ray and results in 3, this year over a week for each!)
Clear to me that the pain etc was a delayed covid symptom.

[Cowsham]

That's an awful wait -- I'm not sure if you're joking about the sudden onset lung cancer or not. Is that what COPD feels like or can that happen with your condition?
Sorry I don't understand.

[djnotts]

That's an awful wait -- I'm not sure if you're joking about the sudden onset lung cancer or not. Is that what COPD feels like or can that happen with your condition?
Sorry I don't understand.

Wasn't joking. I think copd can feel similar during exacerbations. Also, I have 2 other cancer sites (prostate and tongue) so a spread is always on the cards and already compromised lungs a potential site. Whether or not a direct copd to cancer progression I know not but smoking a cause of both.

[Cowsham]

That's an awful wait -- I'm not sure if you're joking about the sudden onset lung cancer or not. Is that what COPD feels like or can that happen with your condition?
Sorry I don't understand.

Wasn't joking. I think copd can feel similar during exacerbations. Also, I have 2 other cancer sites (prostate and tongue) so a spread is always on the cards and already compromised lungs a potential site. Whether or not a direct copd to cancer progression I know not but smoking a cause of both.

I heard Jeremy Clarkson had the tongue cancer, do you think the smoking had caused yours ?

[djnotts]

"....the tongue cancer, do you think the smoking had caused yours?"

Very probably yes, but also in area where dentures have always "rubbed" and trauma can also contribute.