Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
Who is blowing this up and why ? Can't see the benefits to putin, he can't really negotiate switching it back on now.
genuinely puzzled. (unless its another cunning plan by our mind blowingly stupid gov)
genuinely puzzled. (unless its another cunning plan by our mind blowingly stupid gov)
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Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
I keep scratching my head too.
Means?
Must be somebody with access to pretty fancy kit and well-trained personnel, whether that be divers or sea-drone technicians, which suggests a body with large resources, well organised, so either a state, a corporation, or a truly James Bond story independent baddy.
Opportunity?
Given the above, seems to have been wide open, apparently poorly defended/secured, so if that is true, rather than a smoke screen, huge opportunity.
Motive?
Baffling to me.
If Russia, possibly more a demonstration of ability to cripple infrastructure and a psychological wind-up, more than an attempt to cut off gas, which is off anyway. It demonstrates the ability to trash sea-bed telecom cables, which are vital to banking etc, and it diverts eyes and resources from other things, spooks populations thereby increasing pressure on western governments etc. Similar to overflying with spy planes or sailing aircraft carriers down the channel - it eats our defence resources, puts our taxes up etc.
If a western power, increases population-wide suspicion of Russia, gives a pretext for “retaliatory strikes” at Russian infrastructure.
Middle-east oil-interest power using it as a way to further unhook Europe from Russia, pushing oil and gas prices up even more.
China, similar to Russia, with the objective being general destabilisation of the west that facilitates their broader aims.
Corporation ….. I can’t see a motive.
James Bond Baddy, same as Russia & China.
Accident?
I don’t think we should totally discount the possibility that something has gone wrong within the pipeline that has ignited the static gas within it, a fault in an anodic protection system or something, but I don’t understand the physics of ignition underwater, or in a pressurised gas line, enough to understand whether this is possible - I’m struggling to understand where oxygen comes from, unless they were purging the pipe with compressed air.
So, basically I’m still baffled!
Means?
Must be somebody with access to pretty fancy kit and well-trained personnel, whether that be divers or sea-drone technicians, which suggests a body with large resources, well organised, so either a state, a corporation, or a truly James Bond story independent baddy.
Opportunity?
Given the above, seems to have been wide open, apparently poorly defended/secured, so if that is true, rather than a smoke screen, huge opportunity.
Motive?
Baffling to me.
If Russia, possibly more a demonstration of ability to cripple infrastructure and a psychological wind-up, more than an attempt to cut off gas, which is off anyway. It demonstrates the ability to trash sea-bed telecom cables, which are vital to banking etc, and it diverts eyes and resources from other things, spooks populations thereby increasing pressure on western governments etc. Similar to overflying with spy planes or sailing aircraft carriers down the channel - it eats our defence resources, puts our taxes up etc.
If a western power, increases population-wide suspicion of Russia, gives a pretext for “retaliatory strikes” at Russian infrastructure.
Middle-east oil-interest power using it as a way to further unhook Europe from Russia, pushing oil and gas prices up even more.
China, similar to Russia, with the objective being general destabilisation of the west that facilitates their broader aims.
Corporation ….. I can’t see a motive.
James Bond Baddy, same as Russia & China.
Accident?
I don’t think we should totally discount the possibility that something has gone wrong within the pipeline that has ignited the static gas within it, a fault in an anodic protection system or something, but I don’t understand the physics of ignition underwater, or in a pressurised gas line, enough to understand whether this is possible - I’m struggling to understand where oxygen comes from, unless they were purging the pipe with compressed air.
So, basically I’m still baffled!
Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
List of speculations:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord ... peculation
and there's a short description of the pipeline technology just above that.
Jonathan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord ... peculation
and there's a short description of the pipeline technology just above that.
Jonathan
Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
Accident – dodgy welders
When it was first reported they said the pressure had gone from 105 bar to 7 bar so it was not split in two as some gas was passing through, now it is leaking from four places, same welder, I don't know
When it was first reported they said the pressure had gone from 105 bar to 7 bar so it was not split in two as some gas was passing through, now it is leaking from four places, same welder, I don't know
Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
I think the main motive for the US would have been to remove any temptation of backtracking from Germany rather than as some sort of false flag.
For putin it could just be angry lashing out at something or a demonstration of capability as a threat to the other cables and pipelines in the baltic. I did see a suggestion somewhere that having the pipelines destroyed by unknown actors could assist in wiggling out of contract liabilities. Though I'm not sure he's really all that bothered about rule of law at the moment.
A mystery that may not be resolved very quickly.
For putin it could just be angry lashing out at something or a demonstration of capability as a threat to the other cables and pipelines in the baltic. I did see a suggestion somewhere that having the pipelines destroyed by unknown actors could assist in wiggling out of contract liabilities. Though I'm not sure he's really all that bothered about rule of law at the moment.
A mystery that may not be resolved very quickly.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
A message to the West. Apparently the location of the sabotage is close to a non-Russian gas pipeline. Impossible to protect these pipelines. So no massive "act of war" by blowing of a pipeline from 3rd countries but a message e.g. "What about your trans-Atlantic cables?".
Ian
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Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
Not generally a betting man, but on this occasion I'm getting out my shiny Lucky Ten Pee Piece and putting on... Russia !!
S
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
(on the look out for Armageddon, on board a Brompton nano & ever-changing Moultons)
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Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
Despite my attempts to keep an open mind: ditto.
It also occurs to me that Russia, or perhaps Putin individually, might have another motivation: sheer petulance.
Nobody knows what goes on inside his head, but to me it feels consistent with the sentiments expressed in his reported utterances that he would lash out in a fit of petulance, effectively “taking his ball home” because Western Europe is making arrangements to source gas from elsewhere.
It also occurs to me that Russia, or perhaps Putin individually, might have another motivation: sheer petulance.
Nobody knows what goes on inside his head, but to me it feels consistent with the sentiments expressed in his reported utterances that he would lash out in a fit of petulance, effectively “taking his ball home” because Western Europe is making arrangements to source gas from elsewhere.
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Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
I’ve a similar view: it’s about messaging. The Russian pipeline wasn’t going to get used anyway so no loss there and a gain for Russia in demonstrating what they could do. Brinkmanship is misguided and we’re not very far from things getting completely out of hand … with an already depleted army I wonder how well that will go for Russia. My sympathies to the Russian people, I’m sure that the vast bulk of them never wanted the current war / ‘special operation’ and they don’t want to die in any act of NATO retaliation.Psamathe wrote: ↑29 Sep 2022, 11:22amA message to the West. Apparently the location of the sabotage is close to a non-Russian gas pipeline. Impossible to protect these pipelines. So no massive "act of war" by blowing of a pipeline from 3rd countries but a message e.g. "What about your trans-Atlantic cables?".
Ian
Don’t fret, it’s OK to: ride a simple old bike; ride slowly, walk, rest and admire the view; ride off-road; ride in your raincoat; ride by yourself; ride in the dark; and ride one hundred yards or one hundred miles. Your bike and your choices to suit you.
Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
How much of our gas comes over from Norway in the pipe that comes ashore just north of aberdeen?
As others above, I'm thinking it is a warning.
As others above, I'm thinking it is a warning.
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Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
Informed professional opinion seems to run in the direction of it being a warning or demonstration of capability, judging by an interview just broadcast on R4.
Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
If it is a warning tin hat or foil hat ain't gonna cut itNearholmer wrote: ↑29 Sep 2022, 1:43pm Informed professional opinion seems to run in the direction of it being a warning or demonstration of capability, judging by an interview just broadcast on R4.
Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
I do wonder about how smart Putin is. China & India will be making the same assumptions as everybody else (i.e. it's a warning). Were Putin to start breaking trans-Atlantic cables or other international infrastructure then it would likely impact e.g. China & India who do depend on international infrastructure and seek order. He'd be alienating the few leaders who are not too outspoken about his actions (excepting Belarus).
Ian
Ian
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Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
OK of anyone thinks western governments, even ours, can't work out the pipelines cannot be protected and that Russia has the capability to damage them they're a little bit naive. They don't need this "message" to know the score.
West is looking to decrease reliance on Russia as a bad actor in the world for hydrocarbon supply so eventually that line will not be so important to them. Especially since they are trying to pivot elsewhere for customers.
Finally there's been a few outlets reporting from maritime monitoring sources that there were more than a few Russian surface vessels in the areas of the leaks in the same timeframe. The Western agencies will have this information and more so that's why they're saying it's likely to be a Russian action.
Personally I do not know any more than you it seems so I'm leaving the speculative ideas alone. It's not really helpful I think
West is looking to decrease reliance on Russia as a bad actor in the world for hydrocarbon supply so eventually that line will not be so important to them. Especially since they are trying to pivot elsewhere for customers.
Finally there's been a few outlets reporting from maritime monitoring sources that there were more than a few Russian surface vessels in the areas of the leaks in the same timeframe. The Western agencies will have this information and more so that's why they're saying it's likely to be a Russian action.
Personally I do not know any more than you it seems so I'm leaving the speculative ideas alone. It's not really helpful I think
Re: Nord Stream 2 - Sabotage
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FVbEoZXhCrM
I'm not sure if this promise makes it more or less likely to be the US
I'm not sure if this promise makes it more or less likely to be the US