UK energy

[Carlton green]

I'd love to know his reasoning behind backing biomass on a large scale

Misdirection and ignorance.

[irc]

The Labour plan looks like fantasy to me.

"All of this means that Labour has also pledged that by 2030, the UK will generate all of its electricity without using fossil fuels."

No chance. We could quadruple wind generation and we would still need gas to use when the wind drops.

https://clivebest.com/blog/?p=10242

More useful is the mention of new nuclear but any new nuclear by 2030 like Hinkley C will be negated by old nuclear shutting, for example Torness 2028.

[Jdsk]

Time and again, we shy away from tidal, probably because if a few climate protestors can achieve what they are in London, other environmentalists could cause huge problems if we were to try to "wreck" our coastline.

I’d quite like to see the economics for tidal power generation, it’s been being developed for some time but has never gone anywhere much. Tidal lagoons have to work with low heads of water and needs large enclosures to do anything useful (of useful magnitude). Tidal streams need fast flow and for long periods, the generator also needs to be well anchored and be happy to handle regularly reversed (direction) tidal streams. Wave power in general doesn’t seem to scale up like wind and solar now manage to do.

As you've identified tidal lagoons are different from tidal free streams.

The economics of the Swansea scheme:
https://hendryreview.files.wordpress.co ... ersion.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_Lag ... y#Finances

Jonathan

[roubaixtuesday]

In practice the answer to such problems aren’t simple but a reasonable rule of thumb is: either in so far as you can buy British or pay appropriate social compensation in the form of tailored import duties.

Would you apply the same principle to British exports?

For instance, should Indians pay "social compensation" for watching a Bond movie?

[Carlton green]

In practice the answer to such problems aren’t simple but a reasonable rule of thumb is: either in so far as you can buy British or pay appropriate social compensation in the form of tailored import duties.

Would you apply the same principle to British exports?

For instance, should Indians pay "social compensation" for watching a Bond movie?

That raises the interesting concept of what is it OK to trade which I touched upon in: “in so far as you can buy British”. Part of “in so far as you can” includes trading items that one country has in abundance for things that it lacks. So, for example, Eire might trade agricultural produce for oil.

It’s for the Indians to decide on whether to tax viewings of Bond Films, and indeed what imports should have duty applied to them or not. One might say that Bond Films fall into the ‘specialised product’ category and that the UK had balancing imports from India of particular products, materials and food stuffs that aren’t available in the UK. Note that it’s not a case of where something can be made most cheaply but rather of people trading what they naturally have for what they need or want.

As I’ve said in earlier posts importing cheap goods that could have been made in the UK has multiple adverse social and economic consequences in the UK. I’ve seen far far too many of those people who lost their jobs (a future and an income stream gone) and seen those empty factories too (places of industry that provided local employment and a flow of income into a local economy).

@ JDSK, thank you for the data, it’s a very large document. In the words of the man himself:

It is difficult to compare the value of tidal lagoons with this potential for a long operating life to other low carbon projects with considerably shorter operating lives (25 to 60 years). The economic modelling I have seen provided some very helpful illustrations, but I found none to be entirely satisfactory or conclusive. There is no final answer fully reflecting the attributes different technologies bring to addressing the energy trilemma, and hence the strategic dimension to the issue - ultimately Government must pursue the energy mix which most closely reflects its relative priorities for security of supply, low carbon and affordability.

My bold.

Trilemma: A circumstance in which a choice must be made between three options that seem equally undesirable.

The ‘forward’ isn’t too lengthy and gives direction. Personally I think the billion pound capital costs of even a small tidal lagoon to be too risky, but the same could be said of other systems too and Governments are prepared to spend (waste) money on large projects (like HS2) whose worth is questionable. Maybe the Swansea pilot scheme is worthwhile, but like other renewable schemes it still needs a way of storing electrical energy and a fluctuating electricity supply has constrained value.

[roubaixtuesday]

Note that it’s not a case of where something can be made most cheaply but rather of people trading what they naturally have for what they need or want.

It sounds lovely in principle, but think about it.

But who decides what is "natural" ?

Britain grows tomatoes, but in greenhouses. Is that "natural"? Should we be banned from such and instead import all our tomatoes? Imagine having to make such decisions for every aspect of trade separately with every economy!

The price mechanism you decry does exactly what you suggest, but without requiring some all powerful arbiter to define what is "natural" in a country's economy.

[roubaixtuesday]

Maybe the Swansea pilot scheme is worthwhile, but like other renewable schemes it still needs a way of storing electrical energy and a fluctuating electricity supply has constrained value.

Back on topic, AIUI, there are two issues with tidal intermittentcy.

Firstly during the day as the tide rises and falls.

And secondly the annual and lunar cycles where the daily range varies widely over a longer timescale.

On the first, I understand this can be largely mitigated, albeit at a cost of a substantial fraction of total generating, by using multiple lagoons, and phasing the filling and emptying of them.

On the second, I don't think there's much that can be done about it, so you need other generators to provide relatively more during periods of low tidal range.

But I'm no expert and may have this wrong.

[Biospace]

Maybe the Swansea pilot scheme is worthwhile, but like other renewable schemes it still needs a way of storing electrical energy and a fluctuating electricity supply has constrained value.

Back on topic, AIUI, there are two issues with tidal intermittentcy.

Firstly during the day as the tide rises and falls.

And secondly the annual and lunar cycles where the daily range varies widely over a longer timescale.

On the first, I understand this can be largely mitigated, albeit at a cost of a substantial fraction of total generating, by using multiple lagoons, and phasing the filling and emptying of them.

On the second, I don't think there's much that can be done about it, so you need other generators to provide relatively more during periods of low tidal range.

But I'm no expert and may have this wrong.

First, you enclose an area of tidal sea with walls at least the height of high water. Leave gated openings in the walls to allow water to enter at or near high tide. In these openings, turbines are fitted which spin as water enters, to generate electricity. Once full, the gates close and the water is stored until released for maximum energy, when the low tide is approaching.

So typically there are four periods of electricity generation in a day around Britain, around 10 hours in 24 depending on design and how a plant is operated. If there is only one tidal plant around our coast, then clearly there is this intermittency. However, add three or four other plants around the coastline and the output becomes near-constant. Timings of the generation of electricity of both incoming and outgoing water can be adjusted somewhat one way or the other to match grid demand peaks.

Wind turbines could be situated on these containment walls, in the most favourable locations. For low marginal costs the walls of these lagoons can be built a little higher, creating pumped storage potential on top of the existing tidal water. Lunar cycle troughs can be smoothed with pumped storage, annual cycles tend to favour grid demand.

The most efficient method by far is a tidal barrage across an estuary, something planned in the Bristol Channel 1920s but discarded as fossil fuel prices were low and again in the 1960s. The most recent proposals for this were dropped because of environmental considerations of the tidal foreshore, upstream of the barrage. Shore-based lagoons are the proposal to largely avoid these issues.

Costs are high compared with solar and wind power, increasingly lower than nuclear (cost of nuclear goes up with time, tidal reduces) but a lack of understanding by government (of how nuclear is the worst possible energy partner for renewables, of consistently taking a short-termist view) has led to large investments being shelved.

WIth just a few of these dotted around our coast, there is a large supply of baseload power, as with nuclear, but with the ability to adjust power outputs in real time (unlike nuclear which can not match grid demand - or wind and solar - inconsistencies) as well as enhance them into pumped storage for relatively little extra cost.


https://bhesco.co.uk/blog/swansea-tidal ... kley-point
https://peterhain.uk/campaigns/severn-b ... -problems/
https://www.readkong.com/page/the-econo ... uk-7716828
https://www.power-technology.com/analys ... ergy-cost/

[Nearholmer]

WIth just a few of these dotted around our coast, there is a large supply of baseload power, as with nuclear,

What are the relative capacities of tidal lagoon generation and nuclear?

The odd figures I’ve seen suggest that the largest foreseeable tidal lagoon might have an intermittent output of somewhere in the order of 10th of the continuous output of a modern nuclear plant. If that is correct then saying “just a few” is well off beam.

I’m not saying don’t use or consider lagoons, but it’s like the previous debate about low-head hydro, it needs to be thought about realistically, and as part of a mix of things, rather than over-optimistically.

[Jdsk]

A high-end estimate for the total tidal (including wave) power available around the UK is 153 GW:
https://researchbriefings.files.parliam ... P-7940.pdf

So could provide something 4 to 12% of UK electricity.

Swansea Bay lagoon was 320 MW:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_Lagoon_Swansea_Bay

The currently proposed individual nuclear power stations in the UK are 2.2 to 3.2 GW:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_p ... r_stations

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

The Labour Party briefing paper: "Thirty recommendations by 2030":
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/upload ... report.pdf

Jonathan

[uwidavid]

Tides move in mysterious ways. They do follow lunar cycles, but places as little as 100 miles apart can have tides that are out of phase by 6 hours (the maximum). If you want to know about tidal behavior around the UK you will find that it is owned by "The Admiralty" and they want to keep it to themselves (for national security).

[Mike Sales]

If you want to know about tidal behavior around the UK you will find that it is owned by "The Admiralty" and they want to keep it to themselves (for national security).

Strange idea! The Admiralty publishes charts of tides, which are needed for navigation.

On the first chart places which have high (and low!) at the same time are connected by red lines, and those with the same tidal range by blue lines.
The second chart shows the direction and strength of the tidal stream at neaps and springs. They sell booklets showing this at every hour through the cycle.

[uwidavid]

There is tide prediction software which can be downloaded free. All the uk data has been removed because it's "crown copyright". The USA has no such problems as the data has been collected using public money so it is made freely available.
Yes you can get the uk data if you pay (quite a large sum) and tide times are allowed 1 week in advance free.
I found this out when making a tide clock. I thought I could get more accuracy if I knew the period and phases of (the most important) components, but this is not freely available. So I had to go with a clock that just follows the moon phases.

[Mike Sales]

There is tide prediction software which can be downloaded free. All the uk data has been removed because it's "crown copyright". The USA has no such problems as the data has been collected using public money so it is made freely available.
Yes you can get the uk data if you pay (quite a large sum) and tide times are allowed 1 week in advance free.
I found this out when making a tide clock. I thought I could get more accuracy if I knew the period and phases of (the most important) components, but this is not freely available. So I had to go with a clock that just follows the moon phases.

I learned how to predict tidal height to within a few centimetres, and times to within a few minutes, for any place on our coast, without electronic assistance. Given the effect of winds and atmospheric pressure on tidal heights and times, this is quite sufficient for safe navigation.
Perhaps you want the data in such a form that it is amenable to meshing with your programme? I guess this is a different matter. You may be after predictions uselessly precise.