Cycling UK Forum

As for Reform’s current position, my instinct is that it is inflated, a sort of protest bubble, with the protest being against “anything and everything”.

People are generally grumpy and fed-up for all sorts of reasons, mostly coming off the back of falling/static standards of living, and the consumerist dream-balloon rather deflating; fear of war; denial/fear of climate change; getting old and facing up to their own mortality; the NHS continually creaking under the onslaught of an aging population; housing being too costly; a general desperation for things to get more pleasant, rather than less pleasant by the day. That translates into “it’s all the bloody government’s fault”, often with some vague “if they stopped immigration then the sun would shine, prices fall, threats disappear” vibe underneath it.

Unless the government gets itself into some spectacular self-inflicted disaster, it’s a long time to a general election, and although I don’t expect things to get much nicer-feeling over that span, they might (fingers crossed) get slightly nicer (or vastly worse, of course!), and people will have to start facing-up to real choices about how they want to be governed next time round, which I think will change the dynamic.

For all that maybe as many as 1:5 voters want to be led by a right-wing demagogue, 4:5 don’t, and even within the weirdnesses of FPTP, that will somehow translate into centrist government.

cycle tramp wrote: 5 Jan 2025, 7:11pm Ah, right. Reins. Thanks.

cycle tramp wrote: 5 Jan 2025, 7:11pm ...
... rather than just an ability to tow a party line, wave and smile...

Are you doing this just to wind-up MJR???

Nearholmer wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 10:31am There’s a good case to be made that people make better elected officials once they’ve got some “life experience”, but the idea that it is necessary to have made a major contribution in some field such as thee we sciences, technology, business etc in order to make a good elected official seems seriously bizarre to me.

Why should it be so?

It was more of a suggestion - I suggested it, as evidence that the person seeking to garner my vote was interested in something other than themselves, or their ego.

The fact that we, the people should not seek evidence of this from the persons for which we vote, is not bizarre, but rather deeply concerning and goes some way of explaining the state of the world today.

Well, if you count it as just one of many forms of acceptable evidence of wider life experience, fine. I thought you were saying it was the only one you’d accept.

There was a comment about "Soft Tory" and holding their nose to vote against a shift to the right. Whilst I think the phrase "soft Tory" is a kind of derogatory term as in the history of Conservatism what I assume you mean by that phrase I believe was in the majority and in control of the party. It has only been recent years with UKIP and Reform and wider world far right rise in influence that the party has lurched to the right. Even Thatcher was an influence for Blair a Labour PM so I guess she was a "soft Tory" too.

As to holding their nose and voting other than Tory party, well that has happened so many times in the past. Blair no doubt got in with "Soft Tory" votes. I am perhaps the sort of centre right voter who I assumed the poster who made that comment meant and I have voted against Tory several times. It is better centre left get in than far right or far left.

So I see myself as centrist more than left or right. Perhaps that is how wee need to divide the polical spectrum. Left, centre and right with the addition of hard if they are extreme enough.

The hard left and hard right will never get into power in this country. We have enough examples of them gettiing close in the lead up to a GE and getting nowhere in the GE then get purged or controlled from the party. Millitant, Corbynistas, IIRC there has been a few extreme tories who have left before being kicked out. The Tory shift right is a phase that the world is widely experiencing from South America to Europe.

Tangled Metal wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 11:22am There was a comment about "Soft Tory" and holding their nose to vote against a shift to the right. Whilst I think the phrase "soft Tory" is a kind of derogatory term as in the history of Conservatism what I assume you mean by that phrase I believe was in the majority and in control of the party. It has only been recent years with UKIP and Reform and wider world far right rise in influence that the party has lurched to the right. Even Thatcher was an influence for Blair a Labour PM so I guess she was a "soft Tory" too.

As to holding their nose and voting other than Tory party, well that has happened so many times in the past. Blair no doubt got in with "Soft Tory" votes. I am perhaps the sort of centre right voter who I assumed the poster who made that comment meant and I have voted against Tory several times. It is better centre left get in than far right or far left.

So I see myself as centrist more than left or right. Perhaps that is how wee need to divide the polical spectrum. Left, centre and right with the addition of hard if they are extreme enough.

The hard left and hard right will never get into power in this country. We have enough examples of them gettiing close in the lead up to a GE and getting nowhere in the GE then get purged or controlled from the party. Millitant, Corbynistas, IIRC there has been a few extreme tories who have left before being kicked out. The Tory shift right is a phase that the world is widely experiencing from South America to Europe.

I used the term "soft Tory" and didn't mean it in a derogatory way. And yes, I was thinking of people who feel at home with centre / centre right politics. People who would not vote for the left of the Labour spectrum, but who would also not favour a hard right Conservatism. You sound like you fit the bill. I think people like you would vote tactically to keep a far right Government out, even if it meant an unenthusiastic vote for another party.

Tangled Metal wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 11:22am There was a comment about "Soft Tory" and holding their nose to vote against a shift to the right. Whilst I think the phrase "soft Tory" is a kind of derogatory term as in the history of Conservatism what I assume you mean by that phrase I believe was in the majority and in control of the party. It has only been recent years with UKIP and Reform and wider world far right rise in influence that the party has lurched to the right. Even Thatcher was an influence for Blair a Labour PM so I guess she was a "soft Tory" too.

As to holding their nose and voting other than Tory party, well that has happened so many times in the past. Blair no doubt got in with "Soft Tory" votes. I am perhaps the sort of centre right voter who I assumed the poster who made that comment meant and I have voted against Tory several times. It is better centre left get in than far right or far left.

So I see myself as centrist more than left or right. Perhaps that is how wee need to divide the polical spectrum. Left, centre and right with the addition of hard if they are extreme enough.

The hard left and hard right will never get into power in this country. We have enough examples of them gettiing close in the lead up to a GE and getting nowhere in the GE then get purged or controlled from the party. Millitant, Corbynistas, IIRC there has been a few extreme tories who have left before being kicked out. The Tory shift right is a phase that the world is widely experiencing from South America to Europe.

There have been "soft Tories" for years, more commonly called One Nation Conservatives, think Heseltine, Macmillan, Ken Clarke, WInston Churcill etc.
You think the hard right will never get into power in this country - why are you writing off Reform UK as potential election winners?

mattheus wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 10:51am

cycle tramp wrote: 5 Jan 2025, 7:11pm Ah, right. Reins. Thanks.

cycle tramp wrote: 5 Jan 2025, 7:11pm ...
... rather than just an ability to tow a party line, wave and smile...

Are you doing this just to wind-up MJR???

It doesn't wind me up, me duck, and that Freudian slip (that the party line is weight to be towed, rather than a position to toe) was a lot less revealing than the one suggesting Mr Tramp feels the government are reigning over us, as opposed to the usual metaphor of them desperately tugging at the reins of an independently-minded hulking beast.

pete75 wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 12:13pm You think the hard right will never get into power in this country - why are you writing off Reform UK as potential election winners?

I feel some cling to the hope that democrats (small d) didn't win WW2 only so we could hand the fascists the UK at the ballot box less than a century later.

I hope they haven't underestimated the gutting of civic and social education, or the dangerous power of the new media owners.

I also think that those who paint too much power and influence of the far right on social media are a bit misled by the echo chambers they are in. There are echo chambers for all political pursuasions and at this moment in the UK the hard right have such a low number compared to everyone else in the political sphere.

Reform UK are not all hard right and have not gone the way of AfD or others who are, yet. Does that mean that they will? Well if history tells us something about the future then I would look at the influence Farage had when an MEP. Or I would look at what happened to UKIP. Or I would look at the way Farage actually walked away from UKIP when it did move to the right, beyond where he was happy.

Without Farage Reform UK is nothing IMHO. If he is serious about the ideals that led to him leaving UKIP then I suspect he will walk from a far right leaning Reform UK and that IMHO will lead to the collapse of Reform UK.

Time will tell but you have a lot more who are not hard right or hard left which is also just as bad for the UK. We as a nation has often flirted with hard right ideas but when it comes down to it we go no further. The Blackshirts were never a true threat. The far right (and far left like Militant) were never a real thread too. AS a nation we are heavily centrist in elections over a long time.

Nearholmer wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 10:31am As for Reform’s current position, my instinct is that it is inflated, a sort of protest bubble, with the protest being against “anything and everything”.

I agree, and I think they are currently gaining support by giving a number of people with incompatible wishes (e.g. on gay marriage and on smoking in pubs) the vague impression that they agree, and that will become impossible to maintain if they come close to having to clarify and then deliver on their policies.

For Reform to come to power they would need least 326 MP’s elected. Achieving that would realistically mean promoting significantly more serious candidates, I'd say in at least 450 constituencies to have a good chance of winning 326. This would require finding 450+ seriously electable candidates, who have the skills and abilities necessary to be effective MP’s and are able to appeal to the broad electorate, not just Reform's core followers.

So far most Refom candidates knew perfectly well that they would come third or fourth, and that only protest voters would support them, so they did not need to be seriously electable people, and were standing almost for the fun of it. I wonder whether Reform actually have 450 seriously electable people available?

So far Reform are mainly a movement of followers of one leader, Farrage, not a team. Have they got hundreds of people capable of both starring on the local stage while also being willing to be very much bit-part supporting actors to Farrage on the national stage? I suspect that Farrage would privately prefer 450 submissive hero-worshipers who will follow his every word, but will be aware that those might struggle to inspire voters locally, or to perform effectively in committees if elected. Unlike the established parties, Reform don't have a stable of experienced and locally well-known councillors who they can promote as Parliamentary candidates in areas where they have proven track records.

Farage seems to enjoy his maverick outlawlier role. He (somehow*) manages to generate huge income from it, and is probably welcome in all the pubs that he wants to be welcome in.
Might be more trouble than he cares for to try to actually run the country ...


*All perfectly legal, I'm sure!

Tangled Metal wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 12:53pm I

Without Farage Reform UK is nothing IMHO. If he is serious about the ideals that led to him leaving UKIP then I suspect he will walk from a far right leaning Reform UK and that IMHO will lead to the collapse of Reform UK.

Really? Musk is now saying Farage should go as leader. He's likely to be the main financier of the party come a general election so what he says should happen may well happen. I've an inkling Musk would like Tommy Robinson to lead Reform. He's at least as attractive as Farage to the right leaning folk who support Reform and maybe more so.

Musk will have a lot more pwoer and influence come the 20th of January when Trump becomes his vice-president.

^ "Musk will have a lot more pwoer and influence come the 20th of January when Trump becomes his vice-president."

Nice!

pete75 wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 12:13pm

Tangled Metal wrote: 6 Jan 2025, 11:22am There was a comment about "Soft Tory" and holding their nose to vote against a shift to the right. Whilst I think the phrase "soft Tory" is a kind of derogatory term as in the history of Conservatism what I assume you mean by that phrase I believe was in the majority and in control of the party. It has only been recent years with UKIP and Reform and wider world far right rise in influence that the party has lurched to the right. Even Thatcher was an influence for Blair a Labour PM so I guess she was a "soft Tory" too.

As to holding their nose and voting other than Tory party, well that has happened so many times in the past. Blair no doubt got in with "Soft Tory" votes. I am perhaps the sort of centre right voter who I assumed the poster who made that comment meant and I have voted against Tory several times. It is better centre left get in than far right or far left.

So I see myself as centrist more than left or right. Perhaps that is how wee need to divide the polical spectrum. Left, centre and right with the addition of hard if they are extreme enough.

The hard left and hard right will never get into power in this country. We have enough examples of them gettiing close in the lead up to a GE and getting nowhere in the GE then get purged or controlled from the party. Millitant, Corbynistas, IIRC there has been a few extreme tories who have left before being kicked out. The Tory shift right is a phase that the world is widely experiencing from South America to Europe.

There have been "soft Tories" for years, more commonly called One Nation Conservatives, think Heseltine, Macmillan, Ken Clarke, WInston Churcill etc.
You think the hard right will never get into power in this country - why are you writing off Reform UK as potential election winners?

We cannot predict what might happen in the distant future, but right now Reform UK look like an amateurish outfit who start off election campaigns strongly, only to see the wheels fall off when the press digs up racist tweets posted by their candidates a few years previously.

And if they ever look close to election victory, I think we will see them blocked by concerted tactical voting.