Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

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Psamathe
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Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by Psamathe »

toontra wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:17pm If the Rwanda scheme had been announced 5 or more years ago it would have seemed so laughable ...
Look at the expected costs and it's laughable (or would be if so many in the UK were not struggling dependent on food banks, unable to heat & eat, etc.
From the Guardian "...which works out as £1.8m per asylum seeker."

Or the more complete calculation
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/01/rwanda-plan-uk-asylum-seeker-cost-figures#:~:text=This%20will%20cost%20up%20to,operational%20costs%20over%20five%20years. wrote:... The figures mean that if the UK sends 300 people to Rwanda, it will cost the taxpayer £490m under the partnership; an extra £6m in individual payments; plus £45m for processing and operational costs over five years. The total costs would be £541m, which works out as £1.8m per asylum seeker.
(I assume based on the NAO report Jonathan has linked to above but I have not had time to double check the figures calculated are sensible).

Ian
roubaixtuesday
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Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by roubaixtuesday »

toontra wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:17pm If the Rwanda scheme had been announced 5 or more years ago it would have seemed so laughable so ago you would have suspected it had been a spoof lifted from a satirical outlet - e.g. Private Eye. To me it still seems that way - I can't actually believe the Tories are persisting with this nonsense.

None of the practicalities, legalities, moralities or expense make any sense, so one can only assume it's being done purely for party political reasons.
A scheme that brings no benefit to anyone, is divisive in the country, designed to exploit and sow hatred of foreigners? Being done purely for party advantage?

Surely the Great British Public would instantly see through such a knavish plot!
pwa
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Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by pwa »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:56pm
toontra wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:17pm If the Rwanda scheme had been announced 5 or more years ago it would have seemed so laughable so ago you would have suspected it had been a spoof lifted from a satirical outlet - e.g. Private Eye. To me it still seems that way - I can't actually believe the Tories are persisting with this nonsense.

None of the practicalities, legalities, moralities or expense make any sense, so one can only assume it's being done purely for party political reasons.
A scheme that brings no benefit to anyone, is divisive in the country, designed to exploit and sow hatred of foreigners? Being done purely for party advantage?

Surely the Great British Public would instantly see through such a knavish plot!
Any degree of popularity for the scheme (which I agree is misconceived) comes from the lack of a proper disincentive for people trying to use the small boats route, other than the danger. Once on UK shores, removal is very unlikely. The sensible solution would be an agreement with the French for anyone picked up from such a crossing to be taken straight back to France, but with an appointment with UK migration officials on French soil, so that they can put in a request for asylum. With the alternative of seeking that same appointment on French soil without doing the small boat thing at all. That would make the small boat route a lot less attractive.
Jdsk
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Joined: 5 Mar 2019, 5:42pm

Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by Jdsk »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:56pm
toontra wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:17pm If the Rwanda scheme had been announced 5 or more years ago it would have seemed so laughable so ago you would have suspected it had been a spoof lifted from a satirical outlet - e.g. Private Eye. To me it still seems that way - I can't actually believe the Tories are persisting with this nonsense.

None of the practicalities, legalities, moralities or expense make any sense, so one can only assume it's being done purely for party political reasons.
A scheme that brings no benefit to anyone, is divisive in the country, designed to exploit and sow hatred of foreigners? Being done purely for party advantage?

Surely the Great British Public would instantly see through such a knavish plot!
The scheme might have started as an attempt by Johnson to distract attention from PartyGate, eg:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/bo ... 57780.html

Jonathan
roubaixtuesday
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Joined: 18 Aug 2015, 7:05pm

Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by roubaixtuesday »

pwa wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 3:11pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:56pm
toontra wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:17pm If the Rwanda scheme had been announced 5 or more years ago it would have seemed so laughable so ago you would have suspected it had been a spoof lifted from a satirical outlet - e.g. Private Eye. To me it still seems that way - I can't actually believe the Tories are persisting with this nonsense.

None of the practicalities, legalities, moralities or expense make any sense, so one can only assume it's being done purely for party political reasons.
A scheme that brings no benefit to anyone, is divisive in the country, designed to exploit and sow hatred of foreigners? Being done purely for party advantage?

Surely the Great British Public would instantly see through such a knavish plot!
Any degree of popularity for the scheme (which I agree is misconceived) comes from the lack of a proper disincentive for people trying to use the small boats route, other than the danger. Once on UK shores, removal is very unlikely. The sensible solution would be an agreement with the French for anyone picked up from such a crossing to be taken straight back to France, but with an appointment with UK migration officials on French soil, so that they can put in a request for asylum. With the alternative of seeking that same appointment on French soil without doing the small boat thing at all. That would make the small boat route a lot less attractive.
I think there's a couple of fatal flaws here.

First, "the alternative of seeking that same appointment on French soil without doing the small boat thing at all. " is absolutely not on offer from the UK govt. Quite the opposite - there is currently almost no way for anyone to come to the UK to claim asylum.

Second, these people are prepared to risk death to get here. It seems vanishingly unlikely that a tiny chance of going to Rwanda will dissuade anyone (because very few ever will go to Rwanda, even if the scheme happens)

Third, France already takes twice as many refugees as the UK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... population What's their incentive to further increase that?
pwa
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Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by pwa »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 4:34pm
pwa wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 3:11pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 2:56pm

A scheme that brings no benefit to anyone, is divisive in the country, designed to exploit and sow hatred of foreigners? Being done purely for party advantage?

Surely the Great British Public would instantly see through such a knavish plot!
Any degree of popularity for the scheme (which I agree is misconceived) comes from the lack of a proper disincentive for people trying to use the small boats route, other than the danger. Once on UK shores, removal is very unlikely. The sensible solution would be an agreement with the French for anyone picked up from such a crossing to be taken straight back to France, but with an appointment with UK migration officials on French soil, so that they can put in a request for asylum. With the alternative of seeking that same appointment on French soil without doing the small boat thing at all. That would make the small boat route a lot less attractive.
I think there's a couple of fatal flaws here.

First, "the alternative of seeking that same appointment on French soil without doing the small boat thing at all. " is absolutely not on offer from the UK govt. Quite the opposite - there is currently almost no way for anyone to come to the UK to claim asylum.

Second, these people are prepared to risk death to get here. It seems vanishingly unlikely that a tiny chance of going to Rwanda will dissuade anyone (because very few ever will go to Rwanda, even if the scheme happens)

Third, France already takes twice as many refugees as the UK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... population What's their incentive to further increase that?
But what I am suggesting is that the Government should be pursuing this sort of arrangement with the French, instead of pratting around with their ludicrous Rwanda scheme. The only obstacle is in persuading the French to play ball. If this did happen there would be an instant disincentive for people to risk the small boat route, because that route would end in failure every time. Picked up at sea: straight back to France to make a proper request for asylum. Picked up on an English beach: straight back to France to make a proper request for asylum. Every time. Why would anyone risk doing that dangerous crossing if it always ends with a return to France? The next question would be for the government of the day, and it would be regarding whose applications for asylum should be granted. And that is another topic....
roubaixtuesday
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Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by roubaixtuesday »

pwa wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 4:45pm
roubaixtuesday wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 4:34pm
pwa wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 3:11pm
Any degree of popularity for the scheme (which I agree is misconceived) comes from the lack of a proper disincentive for people trying to use the small boats route, other than the danger. Once on UK shores, removal is very unlikely. The sensible solution would be an agreement with the French for anyone picked up from such a crossing to be taken straight back to France, but with an appointment with UK migration officials on French soil, so that they can put in a request for asylum. With the alternative of seeking that same appointment on French soil without doing the small boat thing at all. That would make the small boat route a lot less attractive.
I think there's a couple of fatal flaws here.

First, "the alternative of seeking that same appointment on French soil without doing the small boat thing at all. " is absolutely not on offer from the UK govt. Quite the opposite - there is currently almost no way for anyone to come to the UK to claim asylum.

Second, these people are prepared to risk death to get here. It seems vanishingly unlikely that a tiny chance of going to Rwanda will dissuade anyone (because very few ever will go to Rwanda, even if the scheme happens)

Third, France already takes twice as many refugees as the UK. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... population What's their incentive to further increase that?
But what I am suggesting is that the Government should be pursuing this sort of arrangement with the French, instead of pratting around with their ludicrous Rwanda scheme. The only obstacle is in persuading the French to play ball. If this did happen there would be an instant disincentive for people to risk the small boat route, because that route would end in failure every time. Picked up at sea: straight back to France to make a proper request for asylum. Picked up on an English beach: straight back to France to make a proper request for asylum. Every time. Why would anyone risk doing that dangerous crossing if it always ends with a return to France? The next question would be for the government of the day, and it would be regarding whose applications for asylum should be granted. And that is another topic....
Yes, I agree. But it requires a government to allow asylum applications from France *without* being picked up - and likely an increase in successful asylum applications. Which is the opposite of current policy.
pwa
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Joined: 2 Oct 2011, 8:55pm

Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by pwa »

roubaixtuesday wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 4:53pm ......Yes, I agree. But it requires a government to allow asylum applications from France *without* being picked up - and likely an increase in successful asylum applications. Which is the opposite of current policy.
Possibly. But I wonder how many, and how they could relate to our current need for people to do certain jobs, and young people to make up for the UK birth rate being below par. In short, could some of the extra legitimate asylum seekers replace purely economic migration that we currently experience? I don't know the answer to that. I expect the "fit" won't be completely right. But it might work in part. I don't think we will plug the nursing shortage that way, but the answer to that one is to make the profession a rewarding one that established citizens want to do.
Jdsk
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Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by Jdsk »

"Home Office immigration database errors hit more than 76,000 people":
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... 000-people

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 5 Mar 2024, 10:57am NAO: "The costs of the UK-Rwanda Partnership":
https://www.nao.org.uk/press-releases/t ... rtnership/
IPPR: "Costing the Rwanda plan":
https://www.ippr.org/articles/costing-the-rwanda-plan

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 4 Mar 2024, 5:21pm
Jdsk wrote: 12 Feb 2024, 9:02am
Jdsk wrote: 30 Jan 2024, 11:46am DAG: "How the government is seeking to change the law on Rwanda so as to disregard the facts":
https://emptycity.substack.com/p/how-th ... seeking-to
following the start of the debate in the unelected House of Parliament.
And from Parliament: "Legislative scrutiny highlights human rights failings of Rwanda Bill":
https://committees.parliament.uk/commit ... anda-bill/
includes:
:The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill is fundamentally incompatible with the UK’s human rights obligations, the Joint Committee on Human Rights has warned."
The unelected House has decided that the Bill should be fully compliant with domestic and international law... by 274 to 172.
And seven amendments passed today. That's probably it until after the Easter break.

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by Jdsk »

Jdsk wrote: 21 Oct 2022, 12:21pm And now the airline has turned down the money:

"In a letter to the charity Freedom from Torture, which has led the campaign under the hashtag #StopTheFlights, Privilege Style said it “hereby wishes to communicate the following: that it will not operate flights to Rwanda in the future. That it has never flown to Rwanda since the one flight scheduled for June 2022 (which is the reason for this controversy) was suspended.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... lege-style
That was October 2022.

"Home Office has no plane for Rwanda flights amid ‘migration emergency’":
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/engl ... -zxlxxnr25
(probably paywalled)
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/ ... 7289993549

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by Jdsk »

The Rwanda bill has passed the unelected second chamber.

The Prime Minister has suggested the first flight will be in 10 to 12 weeks.

Which way would you bet on those dates?

Jonathan
mattheus
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Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by mattheus »

Jdsk wrote: 23 Apr 2024, 10:16am The Rwanda bill has passed the unelected second chamber.
I confess I don't know much about the tactics of getting bills through the Lords, but this is very sad news.
Psamathe
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Joined: 10 Jan 2014, 8:56pm

Re: Braverman: Rise of the Fascists

Post by Psamathe »

Jdsk wrote: 23 Apr 2024, 10:16am The Rwanda bill has passed the unelected second chamber.

The Prime Minister has suggested the first flight will be in 10 to 12 weeks.

Which way would you bet on those dates?

Jonathan
And as to whether or not it will "Stop the boats".

Ian
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