Recession, what Recession?

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Dingdong
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Recession, what Recession?

Post by Dingdong »

So according to the ONS the 0.2% shrinkage in the UK economy marks the beginning of what could be the longest, most painful recession the country has ever seen. Roll this up with a collapse in the housing market, round after round of energy price increases, food inflation and a winter chock full of damaging and perhaps lengthy strikes, what chance does the current administration have? A GE in the spring? 100,000 kids going to school without a breakfast in them? Surely Free School Meals is an investment worth making, even in a deep recession?

Round our way there's nothing but a wall of well heeled, completely insulated pensioners. There must be thousands of em, which props up the local economy no end. There are 4 shoe shops in a village of less than six thousand. They think tightening their belts in a recession is going to Lidl once a month, rather than Waitrose. Of course, like everyone else I've seen prices go up wholesale across the board, can things really be getting as bad as the doomsayers predict? Worst recession ever?
pwa
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by pwa »

Look at your own spending recently. Are you being more cautious, splashing out less on luxuries? I am and I think most people are, which means that my wallet is doing less work for the economy. There has to be a recession now that everyone expects one.
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al_yrpal
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by al_yrpal »

Around here its very difficult to get a tradesman to do anything. Presumably they have all been involved in building new houses....
Taylor Wimpey echoes Persimmon warning over property slowdown
Taylor Wimpey has revealed a slowdown in sales – a day after a similar warning from rival Persimmon. The housebuilder reported a net private sales rate of 0.51 homes per outlet per week in the second half of the year, down from 0.91 in 2021.

Its cancellation rate for the second half of the year to date stood at 24pc, compared to 14pc year on year.
Perhaps we will find its easier to get things done now?

All those 'wealthy' pensioners evidently made jolly sure they were well minted in retirement. Good for them!

I watch the news and learn that there is full employment and a labour shortage. I despair as this is illustrated by the BBC by interviewing café owners who cant get waitresses. I would be a bit more concerned if JCB or Rolls Royce couldnt get workers as vital exporters.

As pensioners we made significant cutbacks some months ago.

Its a topsy turvey world.

Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
Dingdong
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by Dingdong »

al_yrpal wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 8:10am Around here its very difficult to get a tradesman to do anything. Presumably they have all been involved in building new houses....
Taylor Wimpey echoes Persimmon warning over property slowdown
Taylor Wimpey has revealed a slowdown in sales – a day after a similar warning from rival Persimmon. The housebuilder reported a net private sales rate of 0.51 homes per outlet per week in the second half of the year, down from 0.91 in 2021.

Its cancellation rate for the second half of the year to date stood at 24pc, compared to 14pc year on year.
Perhaps we will find its easier to get things done now?

All those 'wealthy' pensioners evidently made jolly sure they were well minted in retirement. Good for them!

I watch the news and learn that there is full employment and a labour shortage. I despair as this is illustrated by the BBC by interviewing café owners who cant get waitresses. I would be a bit more concerned if JCB or Rolls Royce couldnt get workers as vital exporters.

As pensioners we made significant cutbacks some months ago.

Its a topsy turvey world.

Al
People coming up with families are really going to struggle, especially if not on fixed rate mortgages. We've cut back on things like mini breaks and booze (the average price of Airbnb is up 60% on same time last year!) As for employment, the elephant in the room (Brexit) has savaged the supply of low skill/low wage workers that Britain previously relied upon.

If Labour win the next GE it will be down to them to try and renegotiate freedom of movement for workers, the current situation is unsustainable. A softening of the hard Brexit, especially in the middle of a deep recession is imo inevitable.

Food banks and Warm Banks will likely be inundated this winter. I'm only glad I'm still working and able to pay my way (for now). I think the next few years, like the last few, are going to be utterly unpredictable. Anything could happen. I just hope Britain is in a sound financial position to withstand it.
PH
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by PH »

Dingdong wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 7:18am A GE in the spring?
That's not going to happen. Why would Sunak call an election unless very sure of a win? The only other scenario is if the Tory party became unmanageable, but with such a huge majority the likelihood of that is zero.
tatanab
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by tatanab »

Dingdong wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 7:18am Round our way there's nothing but a wall of well heeled, completely insulated pensioners. There must be thousands of em, which props up the local economy no end.
As a pensioner, certainly not well heeled, surely it is my job in life to spend my pension supporting businesses near and far. I do try - especially my local baker where a wholemeal loaf is £2.40, but so much nicer than mass market stuff. I went shopping in my local Co-op yesterday and noted that prices seem to have increased by 10% since my visit last week.

Kids with no breakfast - in the 1960s my standard breakfast before being sent to school was a bowl of cornflakes. Being at the low end of incomes, I had free school dinners - which were substantial.
Dingdong
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by Dingdong »

PH wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 8:46am
Dingdong wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 7:18am A GE in the spring?
That's not going to happen. Why would Sunak call an election unless very sure of a win? The only other scenario is if the Tory party became unmanageable, but with such a huge majority the likelihood of that is zero.
Oh I don't know... Revolving, crippling strikes. Inflation rising to 15%, economic crisis, record use of food banks, old people freezing to death because they can't turn the heating on, 1000s of migrants still crossing the channel, record house repossessions, civil unrest ..? A winter of malcontent seems pretty much a shoe-in.

Hunt says 'fastest return to recession in half a century'.

That's probably a best case scenario, according to some political strategists. Governments fall when they can't guarantee tenure of food and energy provision, and/or civil obedience. Imo both of those scenarios are eminently plausible. I'd say the likelihood of a spring GE is about a 50/50 ball. I've got a wager on it.
Nearholmer
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by Nearholmer »

Its a topsy turvey world.
Very topsy-turvy, or perhaps just very complicated.

And, I think that might be because “the pinch” is very unevenly distributed, perhaps more unevenly than we’re used to in such times, because society got more unequal.

Yes, of course prices go up for everyone, but it’s like drowning, or not, as the tide comes in. There are a fair number of people far down the beach and for them the water is already up to their chins, and there are other people much further up the beach who haven’t even got wet socks, and probably never will. Most of us, I guess are somewhere in between: certainly I’m finding the bottoms of my trousers getting wet and uncomfortable.

Also, when commentators talk about a “worst ever” recession, that seems to be in terms of “area”, depth x length, with it being predicted to be exceptionally long, but not very deep.

The intent of all the financial lever-pulling seems to be to create a shallow recession, to let the gas out of the economy so that it matches the size of the available labour force, thereby relieving inflationary pressure ……. If they’ve got it just right, that shouldn’t create mass unemployment, which I guess is what we all think of when we hear the word recession, so it’s all rather counter-intuitive.

Rich pensioners? Yep, there certainly is significant discretionary spending power among a proportion of pensioners, and I too notice that their spending is what supports certain types of economic activity and heavily shapes the economy in some places. That is not a “judgement”, merely a fact. They are among those higher up the beach.

If anyone asks “recession, what recession?”, you know that they are standing well up the beach, and maybe aren’t taking much notice of what’s happening to those who are lower down the slope than themselves. Bizarrely, the people with water up to their chins need a recession, provided it doesn’t put them out of a job, in order to stop the tide of prices rising any further or faster.
pwa
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by pwa »

At the risk of sounding like one of the Monty Python Yorkshiremen, anyone paying £2.40 for a 800g loaf of bread is paying about six times what I am paying for the Just Essentials 800g Wholemeal loaf, 39p a go, which is very poor bread but is nutritionally okay and does my sandwiches for work. That is me cutting back. We have been making similar economies across the board, ceasing buying stuff we really like and making do with stuff that fills us and keeps us healthy.

https://groceries.asda.com/product/whol ... 0008538616

Their 25p baked beans are a good buy. They look and taste good, but at a much lower price. https://groceries.asda.com/product/bake ... eans/20655
thirdcrank
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by thirdcrank »

As a comfortably well-off pensioner I can see a certain irony.

My generation was brought up to shun credit to the extent that it was virtually unknown in the form we know it today. I took out my first credit card in 1984 just before my 40th birthday. And that wasn't to take the waiting out of wanting but because it was an increasingly convenient way to pay

At the same time, successive governments were running up debts on our behalf in various forms including pension commitments but using spin to disguise what they were doing.
Dingdong
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by Dingdong »

pwa wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 10:22am At the risk of sounding like one of the Monty Python Yorkshiremen, anyone paying £2.40 for a 800g loaf of bread is paying about six times what I am paying for the Just Essentials 800g Wholemeal loaf, 39p a go, which is very poor bread but is nutritionally okay and does my sandwiches for work. That is me cutting back. We have been making similar economies across the board, ceasing buying stuff we really like and making do with stuff that fills us and keeps us healthy.

https://groceries.asda.com/product/whol ... 0008538616

Their 25p baked beans are a good buy. They look and taste good, but at a much lower price. https://groceries.asda.com/product/bake ... eans/20655
As much as I admire your economy, it's got be Heinz beans for me and mine. It may be the worst recession to come along in two generations, but own brand beans are a bridge too far! :P

I actually feel less secure with Sunak in charge, because although he warned Truss off her economic crisis creating madness, I'm not sure if he's the tough guy act for tough times.
pete75
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by pete75 »

al_yrpal wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 8:10am
All those 'wealthy' pensioners evidently made jolly sure they were well minted in retirement. Good for them!


Al
Did they? I'm probably what some might call well minted in retirement. Like many of my generation and earlier ones, I did damn all to get a good pension, it was provided by my employer. Most poorer pensioners are so because their employers either didn't have a decent pension scheme or restricted it only to certain levels of staff.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
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al_yrpal
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by al_yrpal »

Beans! I find Heinz mushy after Aldis and hugely expensive. Aldi do tins at 22p, but, if you drain off the gloop there is only 3/4 of a tin of beans there. Same with Sainsburys stuff. With Aldis 33p Corale beans you do get a full tin but, if you leave it open in the fridge for any time you seem to get fungus! Its a minefield.
I add up our supermarket bills every month and so far havent noticed a significant increase.

With the escalating price of tea in mind we are shortly doing a tasting.

Al
IMG20210306132632.jpg
Al
Reuse, recycle, thus do your bit to save the planet.... Get stuff at auctions, Dump, Charity Shops, Facebook Marketplace, Ebay, Car Boots. Choose an Old House, and a Banger ..... And cycle as often as you can......
pete75
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by pete75 »

tatanab wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 9:05am
Dingdong wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 7:18am Round our way there's nothing but a wall of well heeled, completely insulated pensioners. There must be thousands of em, which props up the local economy no end.
As a pensioner, certainly not well heeled, surely it is my job in life to spend my pension supporting businesses near and far. I do try - especially my local baker where a wholemeal loaf is £2.40, but so much nicer than mass market stuff. I went shopping in my local Co-op yesterday and noted that prices seem to have increased by 10% since my visit last week.

Kids with no breakfast - in the 1960s my standard breakfast before being sent to school was a bowl of cornflakes. Being at the low end of incomes, I had free school dinners - which were substantial.
You were lucky. Had to make do with egg and bacon, almost a free meal with eggs from our own chickens and bacon from the pigs my uncle kept. Same with sandwiches, cheap home made bread filled with a slice of cheap homemade acelet. Rural Lincolnshire in 1960 only the posh kids had cornflakes.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
Dingdong
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Re: Recession, what Recession?

Post by Dingdong »

When we were growing up, I don't suppose our parents had much money. But everyone we knew was in the same boat so you didn't notice. Always had three square meals a day, even if dinner was sometimes only soup and bit of old bread with margarine on it (I still can't take margarine to this day!). If there was a poverty line back in the day I'm sure were probably on or very near it.

I feel really sorry for kids today coming up. No one should have to go to school hungry, or come home at night feeling the same way. Free school meals at the point of need is surely something that you provide even in a recession. As usual it's always the children and the elderly who suffer when times get bad. (Unless you are the well heeled retiree of our borough, who struggle by on six figure pensions, and three foreign holidays a year.)

I can see civil unrest ahead. Especially when this six month fuel bill help comes to an end. How many families will be in a heat or eat situation this winter, God knows. I really can't see the UK population taking it quietly...
Last edited by Dingdong on 11 Nov 2022, 1:31pm, edited 1 time in total.
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