Starmer talking about immigration policy

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Stevek76
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Joined: 28 Jul 2015, 11:23am

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by Stevek76 »

Carlton green wrote: 28 Nov 2022, 8:01am That there was public dissatisfaction and a significant desire to leave is clear, but the reality is that our full route out of the EU simply didn’t exist and hence our exit has been far too problematic.
There was a very narrow, simple majority after a deeply unclear and divisive referendum chock full of lies and fantasy promises that could never be fulfilled.

Prior to the issue of a vote being raised in the latter half of 2015 the issue of membership never showed up in top 10 issues polling.

How is any of that a 'significant desire to leave'? Current polling is quite clear that there is significantly more desire the that the whole sorry issue never happened at all.

It's a complement to the relatively small cabal who drove brexit that they've established this sort of narrative and that the issues now a can of worms that shouldn't be touched.

To be clear I'm not suggesting labour put this front and centre just as they shouldn't for electoral reform. The key issues that the public care about aren't those. However, it's perfectly safe to include improving eu relationship as a policy. If they were competent at being politicians the lines of attack should the Tories dare attack them on that inclusion are near endless. Polling is clear that most voters don't think it's 'done', that it's made things worse and that's a conclusion they've come to largely by themselves in the face of a BBC that barely dares mention the topic as being blatantly partly or wholly to blame for a quite a few of the country's current woes

And as mjr points out, to suggest that the current situation is somehow ok is silly. In their desperate effort to chase swing voters in their 'red wall' focus groups (and I have a deep suspicion that these focus groups are getting refreshed and so progressively picking up ever more extreme wavering conservative voters as the polls shift) they are going to going to completely alienate other sections of their vote, this might be fine where that's in safe seats but it's a risk in the seats like Canterbury that were won (from the conservatives) by Corbyn off the back of a motivated younger vote as well as damages their 'get the vote out' manpower.
The contents of this post, unless otherwise stated, are opinions of the author and may actually be complete codswallop
ossie
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Joined: 15 Apr 2011, 7:52pm

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by ossie »

Stevek76 wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 7:27pm
Carlton green wrote: 28 Nov 2022, 8:01am That there was public dissatisfaction and a significant desire to leave is clear, but the reality is that our full route out of the EU simply didn’t exist and hence our exit has been far too problematic.
There was a very narrow, simple majority after a deeply unclear and divisive referendum chock full of lies and fantasy promises that could never be fulfilled.
Yet that very narrow simple majority won. I've seen a play on words before but you get a gold medal for that effort. I agree with Carlton there was a significant desire to leave, hence reflected in the vote. If you disagree then I guess you don't travel, mix and have little comprehension of the bigger picture here in the UK, or perhaps limit your reading to that that supports your political view ?

This desire to leave has been reflected in numerous party manifestos from every party over several generations as you know.
roubaixtuesday
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Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by roubaixtuesday »

We just need to wait another decade or three; the idiocy of Brexit is clear to most now but another referendum would probably be even more divisive than the last and I doubt the EU would touch us with a bargepole anyway.

But as I wrote above, Brexit didn't "solve" immigration and rejoining won't "solve" immigration.

Because there is no "solution". Anything we do will be imperfect.

We could start by actually implementing current policy competently rather than inventing new policies. The reason asylum is such a big issue isn't numbers entering, which are lower than anywhere in Europe (though you wouldn't believe it from the rhetoric), it's our incompetence and delay in processing applications.
pete75
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Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by pete75 »

ossie wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 9:18pm
Stevek76 wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 7:27pm
Carlton green wrote: 28 Nov 2022, 8:01am That there was public dissatisfaction and a significant desire to leave is clear, but the reality is that our full route out of the EU simply didn’t exist and hence our exit has been far too problematic.
There was a very narrow, simple majority after a deeply unclear and divisive referendum chock full of lies and fantasy promises that could never be fulfilled.
Yet that very narrow simple majority won. I've seen a play on words before but you get a gold medal for that effort. I agree with Carlton there was a significant desire to leave, hence reflected in the vote. If you disagree then I guess you don't travel, mix and have little comprehension of the bigger picture here in the UK, or perhaps limit your reading to that that supports your political view ?

This desire to leave has been reflected in numerous party manifestos from every party over several generations as you know.
Using your logic, and given the closeness of the voting, there was also a significant desire to remain.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
ossie
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Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by ossie »

pete75 wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 9:49pm
Using your logic, and given the closeness of the voting, there was also a significant desire to remain.
I didn't say there wasn't. Perhaps I could refer to it as a very narrow simple minority .
Nearholmer
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Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by Nearholmer »

Yes, there was a significant desire to leave in that in a binary decision 4% is a significant difference.

It was also a very small difference, and anyone but the dimmest or most dogmatic (is there a difference?) was well aware at the time that opinion was finely divided and subtly graduated, on both sides of the line. Even after months of attempts to drive people to opposite poles, a great many people were only just one side of the line or the other in their decision.

Anyone who, like BJ, talks the tommy-rot of “huge majority” in the vote is talking tommy-rot.

And, when a thing is that fine-cut, it doesn’t take much to swing things the other way …… or back again …… or back the first way again.

TBH, much as I’d like them to be, I don’t think the figures suggesting a large majority in favour of the EU are truly solid now. If we had a referendum again after yet another bitter campaign, it would probably result in a 4% margin again, just the other way, and the rumblings wouldn’t stop.
pete75
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Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by pete75 »

ossie wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 10:08pm
pete75 wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 9:49pm
Using your logic, and given the closeness of the voting, there was also a significant desire to remain.
I didn't say there wasn't. Perhaps I could refer to it as a very narrow simple minority .
You could, but you seemed to be criticising Steve for using that very expression.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
ossie
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Joined: 15 Apr 2011, 7:52pm

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by ossie »

pete75 wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 10:18pm
You could, but you seemed to be criticising Steve for using that very expression.
I was and my reply to you was laden with irony. I've never actually seen a majority vote winning verdict referred to as a very narrow, simple majority...followed by the usual excuses.

With any other vote or referendum it would be accepted, case closed until the next vote.
Nearholmer
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Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by Nearholmer »

With any other vote or referendum it would be accepted, case closed until the next vote.
And so it probably would be if it was one of a series of regular votes, where ever-wobbling opinion may take things the other side of the fine line next time …..but, it isn’t.

If it had gone the other way by a similar margin, do you think those in favour of leaving would be sitting quietly? Nope, they’d be making a right racket, as they did for years before the most recent referendum.

To get this one settled for a few decades, it needs a decent-sized majority in one direction or the other, or put another way it needs “the country to be of a single mind”.

A bit like Indy-refs.
pete75
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Joined: 24 Jul 2007, 2:37pm

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by pete75 »

ossie wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 10:24pm
pete75 wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 10:18pm
You could, but you seemed to be criticising Steve for using that very expression.
I was and my reply to you was laden with irony. I've never actually seen a majority vote winning verdict referred to as a very narrow, simple majority...followed by the usual excuses.

With any other vote or referendum it would be accepted, case closed until the next vote.
Haven't you? It's frequently used to describe close run votes in a general election - narrow majority, small majority etc. With the FTP system I suppose it's unnecesary to say simple majority because all are elected on a simple majority. A narrow majority is a true description of the Brexit vote.

Accepted? Nigel Farage said ‘In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.’
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
Nearholmer
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Joined: 26 Mar 2022, 7:13am

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by Nearholmer »

Oh sh**!

That means I agree with him.

That is painful, truly painful.
ossie
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Joined: 15 Apr 2011, 7:52pm

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by ossie »

Nearholmer wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 10:44pm
With any other vote or referendum it would be accepted, case closed until the next vote.
And so it probably would be if it was one of a series of regular votes, where ever-wobbling opinion may take things the other side of the fine line next time …..but, it isn’t.

If it had gone the other way by a similar margin, do you think those in favour of leaving would be sitting quietly? Nope, they’d be making a right racket, as they did for years before the most recent referendum.

To get this one settled for a few decades, it needs a decent-sized majority in one direction or the other, or put another way it needs “the country to be of a single mind”.

A bit like Indy-refs.
I see, like moving the goal posts after the result. I'm not sure where folk on here are going to find their peace as the major parties seem insistent on moving on. If there was a sniff that another vote would win an election, I'm sure they'd been on it like a ferret up a drain pipe. I see no ferrets at the moment, perhaps in future years when we've actually had time to see how things pan out.
Last edited by ossie on 29 Nov 2022, 11:01pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nearholmer
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Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by Nearholmer »

No.

Like it was a fine-cut decision, and fine-cut decisions often unravel quite quickly.

People change their minds, events move on, the weather changes.

That’s presumably why all democracies set some sort of limit on the term of governments, rather than have an election once and leave it at that.

It’s a simple fact of life that a narrow margin in a referendum, or anything else for that matter, won’t settle matters, it’s not a political statement on one side or the other.

No sane person would re-run the referendum now, because it wouldn’t result in a decisive outcome, it would result in another, probably opposite, narrow margin.

One day it will become apparent that either the country is of a single mind to continue going it alone, or of a single mind to re-join, but that day hasn’t dawned yet. Opinion is still divided.
Last edited by Nearholmer on 29 Nov 2022, 11:04pm, edited 1 time in total.
ossie
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Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by ossie »

pete75 wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 10:50pm Haven't you? It's frequently used to describe close run votes in a general election - narrow majority, small majority etc. With the FTP system I suppose it's unnecesary to say simple majority because all are elected on a simple majority. A narrow majority is a true description of the Brexit vote.
Yet you rarely see the word 'simple' thrown in followed by a conspiracy theory. A narrow majority I accept but he didn't say that.
ossie
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Joined: 15 Apr 2011, 7:52pm

Re: Starmer talking about immigration policy

Post by ossie »

Nearholmer wrote: 29 Nov 2022, 11:00pm No.
Well the answer was yes. How long do you propose we give it ?
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