Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

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Nearholmer
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by Nearholmer »

It could mark a change of style, but talking to the guys in the shop, they said that their own brand bikes arrived too late to catch the “spring wave”, and that when they did eventually come the quantities seemed to be based on the pandemic boom.

I’d say based on the hybrid I bought, and looking at their Arkrose gravel bikes, the spec/quality still seems good, flipping excellent at the discounted prices in fact, although I wonder if a 3x9 drive train on a hybrid is really what most customers want these days - I’m sure many casual users would find 1x10 both sufficient and easier.

Where it is really obvious that things have changed in Evans is in clothing and accessories, clothing especially, where they seem to have taken all except their basic own-brands stuff out of the shops (I haven’t looked on-line). But then, cycling clothing is such a nightmare in stock terms that other stores seem the same: Halfords is below basic; Rutland not much in store at all, steer clothing purchases on-line; Trek a slim selection from their own brand; top-notch LBS sells “fancy gear” focusing pretty tightly on high-spending roadies. I could go on, we have a lot of bike shops locally, but the point is that nobody even tries to hold comprehensive clothing stock in shops.
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mjr
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by mjr »

Nearholmer wrote: 27 Mar 2023, 2:02pm My instinct is the nation divides into a large group of people who never go anywhere near a bike from one years end to the next, a smaller group who rid a bike occasionally for a short distance (maybe they are near the average??), and a tiny group of people who really rack-up the trips and miles. A plot that illustrated that, or whatever the real truth around that distribution is, and how it had changed over time, would be far more informative. A series of stacked bars probably.
That's certainly the impression the cycling frequency statistics give. Here's England and Norfolk plotted as a series of stacked bars, and the % changes in Norfolk compared to last year and the 5 year average. As you can see, it's generally on the wane in England and really struggling in the most rural areas like North Norfolk and Breckland that have been pretty much starved of cycling infrastructure since about 2010 when the "Cycle City Ambition" concentrated funding on the cities. I can produce similar plots for other areas if wanted. It should be fairly quick now I've mashed the data a bit.
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Travel cycling levels in England and Norfolk districts
Travel cycling levels in England and Norfolk districts
Change in travel cycling frequency in Norfolk districts
Change in travel cycling frequency in Norfolk districts
Last edited by mjr on 28 Mar 2023, 2:58pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mjr
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by mjr »

That's too bleak, so I've also plotted the "Any cycling" which includes the (decreasing but still big) leisure cycling too:
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Cycling frequency in Norfolk by year and district
Cycling frequency in Norfolk by year and district
Last edited by mjr on 28 Mar 2023, 2:57pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Nearholmer
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by Nearholmer »

That is certainly a more meaningful way of presenting the information than that graph I copied above - thank you.

I wonder what it is about the broadlanders that means that their rates are pretty steady. Are there more cycle paths in that area?

What it doesn’t show is people who cycle less than once a month, extending out to ‘never’ ……. Oh, wait a mo, that’s by subtraction from 100% isn’t it.

I’d be very interested to see what the figures are for Milton Keynes. I think they will have fallen since pre-pandemic due to a drop in rail commuting, in that a lot of people used to cycle to the station, although if using hired electric scooters counts that might compensate, because they are pretty popular here.
Manc33
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by Manc33 »

When a cassette that was £12.50 in 2019 is suddenly £45 in 2020 it's no surprise people (like me) just didn't buy these parts. People are waiting for it to blow over. Let's see if those cassettes (or anything else that more than tripled in price) comes back down to prices in line with what they should be. A £12.50 cassette would be £13.50 a year later, not £45. I was only going to buy it as a spare, my current one is nowhere near worn yet. I wouldn't mind but this is one of the cheapest heaviest cassettes (Altus I think).

Perhaps many that were going to take up cycling, saw the prices and didn't bother. After all a lack of a bike doesn't mean people can't exercise, it's free to walk or jog.
We'll always be together, together on electric bikes.
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[XAP]Bob
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by [XAP]Bob »

We'll not be seeing deflation any time soon, and we're making no real steps to take down the trade barriers we've imposed on ourselves.
A shortcut has to be a challenge, otherwise it would just be the way. No situation is so dire that panic cannot make it worse.
There are two kinds of people in this world: those can extrapolate from incomplete data.
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mjr
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by mjr »

Nearholmer wrote: 27 Mar 2023, 10:50pm That is certainly a more meaningful way of presenting the information than that graph I copied above - thank you.

I wonder what it is about the broadlanders that means that their rates are pretty steady. Are there more cycle paths in that area?
Yes, it includes the northern/eastern edge of the Norwich suburbs, coming as close as 1.4miles to the castle at one point, then extends east to the meeting point of the Bure and Yare and west with its southern edge near the A47 and the northern edge sort of arcing around the north of Aylsham. It's probably a toss-up between Broadland and Great Yarmouth for which has done second-best for funding since 2010 after Norwich. You may be able to see the effect most graphically on the map at https://www.cyclosm.org/#map=11/52.6995 ... yclosmlite where basically all the long meandering line curving around north of Norwich is the Marriotts Way, Bure Valley Way and start of the 3 Rivers Way (all attractive for leisure cycling), which are almost all in Broadland, along with the odds and ends in Norwich north of the A1042.

It's not all been great, of course. The stuff along the A1270 seems pretty good between junctions but the junctions themselves are awful 2000s-era plans rushed through approval before a council commitment to follow LTN 2/08 (!) came into effect. There are also some bizarre missing links which are bottlenecks and barriers for cycling.
I’d be very interested to see what the figures are for Milton Keynes. I think they will have fallen since pre-pandemic due to a drop in rail commuting, in that a lot of people used to cycle to the station, although if using hired electric scooters counts that might compensate, because they are pretty popular here.
Here it is, alongside the usual comparisons of Bedford, Stevenage and Bracknell. I can't include Buckinghamshire easily because of boundary changes during the time period.
Attachments
Plot of MK and comparison districts
Plot of MK and comparison districts
MJR, mostly pedalling 3-speed roadsters. KL+West Norfolk BUG incl social easy rides http://www.klwnbug.co.uk
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dodger1
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by dodger1 »

I know it's not representative, but I've noticed a distinct rise in numbers of cyclists using the Plym Valley Trail in the last few years (pre and post lockdown). There is a consistent factor here in that there seem to be many more oldish riders on e-bikes. Being an older rider I can see the attractions of an e-bike to people of my generation who tire a lot quicker.
Talking to 2 local dealers lately, whilst looking at e-bikes, they say that between 60 and 70% of their new bike sales are now for e-bikes and that business is brisk, even at the prices charged. There's even, apparently, a new e-bike shop opening locally in Liskeard (E Cornwall), though I have yet to visit it.
I guess the Trail is more attractive to less confident and new (possibly returning) cyclists, which might account for the increased numbers.
The one aspect which gives me great satisfaction is to see the numbers of young riders now using the Trail, so I think cycling is going to continue in popularity, especially as fuel prices rise. What we need to sustain it is more traffic-free/segregated routes and better driver education.
Nearholmer
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by Nearholmer »

Many thanks.

Depressing, but probably no more so than I expected, and I still wonder whether e-scooters are in or out.

One thing it does prove is that having excellent cycling facilities, which we have in MK, isn’t of itself necessarily going to get everyone to leap on a bike. The things that cut against bikes for utility use here are distances, the place being very dispersed[*], and the fact that we also have a road network that is very good, and only congested for tiny periods in small spots.

*dispersed in terms of employment and things like the hospital. Schools are “everywhere” and most kids walk to school.
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mjr
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by mjr »

Nearholmer wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 3:53pm One thing it does prove is that having excellent cycling facilities, which we have in MK, isn’t of itself necessarily going to get everyone to leap on a bike. The things that cut against bikes for utility use here are distances, the place being very dispersed, and the fact that we also have a road network that is very good, and only congested for tiny periods in small spots.
Let's not kid ourselves: MK is good but not excellent. It's sub-Denmark not super-Netherlands. I'm sure we've discussed this at length elsewhere. Though I agree the limiting factor is almost certainly the ease of driving around the new towns and that cycling is very rarely easier than it.
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mattheus
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by mattheus »

Nearholmer wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 3:53pm The things that cut against bikes for utility use here are distances, the place being very dispersed[*],
I wonder if anyone's thought of arranging things so that you're always within - say - 15mins ride of major life facilities?
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mjr
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by mjr »

mattheus wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 4:19pm
Nearholmer wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 3:53pm The things that cut against bikes for utility use here are distances, the place being very dispersed[*],
I wonder if anyone's thought of arranging things so that you're always within - say - 15mins ride of major life facilities?
Few include employment zones in that. Other than that, with schools scattered and shops in district centres spaced every 2-3km, MK is already a 15minute city.

MK's problem is that the industrial employment zones tend to take up whole squares in the grid and many of them are clustered along the railway corridor or near the edge. They're the purple areas on https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=11/5 ... 1&layers=H

Many of them have large car parks too. Unless they live nearby and also like cycling, most will drive to work there until it becomes ruinously expensive because it's just so easy: your street to access road to fast main roads to zone access road to free work car park, then back again.
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Nearholmer
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by Nearholmer »

I wonder if anyone's thought of arranging things so that you're always within - say - 15mins ride of major life facilities?
For most things that you need daily we are already in the core part of MK. Doctors - tick; corner shop - tick; supermarket -tick; schools - tick. There is a rural hinterland of villages and small towns and it applies to a large degree to most of those too, although I’d not fancy cycling to the doctors along a country lane in the middle of winter while feeling seedy.

But, it would not really be practical to put 280k people within 15 minutes of a major teaching hospital, except possibly by making us all live in tower blocks, and …….

Employment is very dispersed here, and it would take a complete rearrangement of pieces on the chessboard to put everyone next to their job. That’s the part of 15 minute cities that to me seems most challenging, and in darker moments I wonder whether it might actually be a complete fantasy, especially in a world where both people in a couple now usually work.

As MJR points out, much employment is in the “purple zones”, but there are other cluster too, notably the “office district” full of lawyers, estate agents, employment bureaus etc, the main shopping centre, which is really a regional, as much as local, facility, and the hospital, which I think is the biggest single employer in the city. Each has a 15 minute zone, but if one partner is a hospital nurse, and the other a welder in the railway works, it isn’t possible for both to live within 15 minutes unless they are unusually quick cyclists (25 minutes would be perfectly feasible).
Last edited by Nearholmer on 28 Mar 2023, 5:30pm, edited 1 time in total.
mattheus
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by mattheus »

Nearholmer wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 5:12pm
I wonder if anyone's thought of arranging things so that you're always within - say - 15mins ride of major life facilities?
For most things that you need daily we are already in the core part of MK. There is a rural hinterland of villages and small towns and it applies to a large degree to most of those too.

But, it would not really be practical to put 280k people within 15 minutes of a major teaching hospital, except possibly by making us all live in tower blocks, and …….

Employment is very dispersed here, and it would take a complete rearrangement of pieces on the chessboard to put everyone next to their job. That’s the part of 15 minute cities that to me seems most challenging, and in darker moments I wonder whether it might actually be a complete fantasy, especially in a world where both people in a couple now usually work.
OK, so I apologise if no-one wants this thread-drift, the 15min line was just meant as a silly quip. BUT ...

How many of those 280k need to get to a major teaching hospital frequently?? I think it's the stuff you access more than monthly that matter: GP, butchers, school, sports stuff, library etc ....
As for employment, well at least people have some choice in that [with WFH increasing hugely in modern times], plus it's only about 55%of the population that work, the rest still need to get around - and the children plus very elderly are the ones least likely to be able to drive themselves to places.
So do not give up on the idea yet! :)
Nearholmer
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Re: Looks Like The Cycling Boom Is Over.

Post by Nearholmer »

I haven’t given up on the 15 minute thing; I live in it, and I like it, a lot.

My kids can both walk or cycle to school in 15 minutes without going anywhere near a road, and they do. We can cycle to a good supermarket in ten minutes, my son goes to the gym to play badminton with his mates by bike. We can cycle to the doctors/dentist/chemist/vet in five minutes. My good lady is at this moment cycling home from her work at the uni, again she won’t use a road for any of that. These are all good things.

But, as you can see from the stats, a high degree of 15 minuteness and excellent cycling facilities don’t, of themselves, solve the car use problem, and dispersed employment is a major factor in that. Having a first-class road network and poor bus provision are others.
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