Not giving my money to the fossel fuel industry

[irc]

Why? They simplify the car significantly - no cambelts, oil changes, clutches, injectors or fuel pumps, exhaust silencers, EGR or DPF, ignition coil packs and so on. I never liked the over-electronification of a mechanical device powered along by setting fire to fuel, whereas I see the EV is an electrical and electronic device with wheels. They should be stunningly reliable, until there's little alternative and limiting life expectancy becomes part of the design.

The stats don't appear to show better reliability for EVs.

More breakdowns and the cost of a breakdown far higher.

"Analysis of more than 2,500 EVs over four-and-a-half years by Total Motion found that, on average, breakdown costs for a petrol or diesel car were £221 per incident (excluding accidents) compared with £596 for an EV.

The number of breakdowns, on average, was also higher for a plug-in vehicle – 3.1 incidents for an EV versus 1.9 for an ICE vehicle."

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest ... ce-vehicle

Which also finds battery cars less reliable.

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/03/ice-c ... udy-shows/

I don't think better reliability is an argument for EVs. My personal experience is no breakdowns in almost 5 years with my current vehicle.


So. More expensive. Less reliable. Shorter range. Just as well they get huge tax breaks because they have little else to recommend them.

[Nearholmer]

The stats don't appear to show better reliability for EVs.

More breakdowns and the cost of a breakdown far higher.

It’s still fairly early days for mass application of EVs to road transport, so we’re almost certainly in the “teething troubles” stage, after all it’s only in the past c25 years that IC motor cars have become boringly dependable.

There really isn’t much to go wrong with an EV, at least not with a pure EV, so very high reliability is eminently achievable. Hybrids are a horse of a different complexity, some of what the automotive sector has come up with being of bonkers levels of complexity, and depending upon how the current figures are collated they may be polluting the statistics.

If you want to look at a sector where EVs are very mature indeed, and likewise ICVs, try rail, and you will find that task-for-task the E versions are more reliable and cheaper to maintain, granting that battery EV is a bit niche in rail applications, most electric trains collect current from the infrastructure, so a bit of cost and unreliability needs to be factored-in for batteries, and some factored-out for current collection apparatus.

Whatever the case for and against EV for road use, unreliability surely won’t count against EV in the longer term, blindingly obvious engineering logic says that it won’t.

[Cugel]

The price of new cars has risen somewhat and it’s looking like many people will quite simply be priced off of the road …

Well ..... good. When they price me off the road I'll be quite grateful that they helped me break a bad habit, especially if I end up cycling and walking more (and saving money).

With a bit of luck, they'll ban the eating of meat too.

Cugel, always keen for a good nannying.

[Jdsk]

It’s still fairly early days for mass application of EVs to road transport, so we’re almost certainly in the “teething troubles” stage, after all it’s only in the past c25 years that IC motor cars have become boringly dependable.

There really isn’t much to go wrong with an EV, at least not with a pure EV, so very high reliability is eminently achievable. Hybrids are a horse of a different complexity, some of what the automotive sector has come up with being of bonkers levels of complexity, and depending upon how the current figures are collated they may be polluting the statistics.

If you want to look at a sector where EVs are very mature indeed, and likewise ICVs, try rail, and you will find that task-for-task the E versions are more reliable and cheaper to maintain, granting that battery EV is a bit niche in rail applications, most electric trains collect current from the infrastructure, so a bit of cost and unreliability needs to be factored-in for batteries, and some factored-out for current collection apparatus.

Whatever the case for and against EV for road use, unreliability surely won’t count against EV in the longer term, blindingly obvious engineering logic says that it won’t.

That's the way I'd bet.

Jonathan

[pwa]

...
I'm not so keen on hefting hundreds of kilos of battery around for the three or four times a year you really need 250 miles of range, especially so when most trips are under 10 miles and a range of 90 would suffice 99% of the time, but it appears like we'll be stuck with that, for now.
...

I like making things last, so I'm hoping our exisiting car will be okay for another decade at least. But when it expires it is likely that the transition to all-electric will be underway and we won't have much choice. Electric or nothing.

In another decade I think that it will be much more common to use a vehicle that isn't owned personally. That would make it much easier to to select a vehicle that's appropriate to the immediate need.

Jonathan

At this point in time, for me that seems a long way off and I am open minded about what my wife and I will need or want when the time comes. I don't have emotional investment in cars, they are just a means to an end for me. They do a job, and in ten years or more from now, I'm not sure what I will need the next "car" to be able to do. Or what will be available for me to choose from. For now, we will stick with what we have and gradually use it less.

Our other big use of fossil fuels is our gas fired central heating, and the gas cooker. For now, everything is in good working order and we have no immediate plans for whatever comes next. But there will be a day, maybe ten years down the line, when radical alternatives will be looked at. Until then, it is a matter of using a bit less gas here and there.

The compact mobile home is one of our smaller fossil fuels uses. If we drove down the length of France, as some people do with theirs, it would be a different matter. But we have so far stayed this side of the channel, and not gone very far at all. It isn't the driving to a place we like, it is just the being there, in our own accommodation but with a nice place outside. So keeping diesel use down to very modest levels has been easy so far. Our favourite destinations are fifty or sixty miles down the road, and once we get there we don't move the van until we are setting off for home. If we ditched the van and flew to the Med instead, our fossil fuels use would go up considerably. Ironically perhaps, our motorhome is a lower carbon alternative to that.

[francovendee]

...
I'm not so keen on hefting hundreds of kilos of battery around for the three or four times a year you really need 250 miles of range, especially so when most trips are under 10 miles and a range of 90 would suffice 99% of the time, but it appears like we'll be stuck with that, for now.
...

I like making things last, so I'm hoping our exisiting car will be okay for another decade at least. But when it expires it is likely that the transition to all-electric will be underway and we won't have much choice. Electric or nothing.

In another decade I think that it will be much more common to use a vehicle that isn't owned personally. That would make it much easier to to select a vehicle that's appropriate to the immediate need.

Jonathan

Does your prediction see most people still having a vehicle of some kind that can be changed when needed.

[Nearholmer]

Jonathon will doubtless answer for himself, but I would expect that in areas of suburban population density a “car” in the medium term will be a battery-powered thing you summon, as you summon a lift in a tall building, get into, get taken where you want to go, alight from, and say goodbye to.

I can already summon a small autonomous vehicle and have it bring me a small amount of shopping from the co-op or Tesco, then wave it cheerio, so the idea of a bigger autonomous vehicle that I get into is far from totally alien.

Doubtless there will still be some “car owners”, even in areas well provided with CarBots, just as there are a few car owners now in central London, where there is absolutely no need to own a car, but I would wager there will be a great deal fewer than now, because it will be unnecessary and unfeasibly expensive for most people. Snob-factor/status-display will be served by there being two or three CarBot services, one that is cheap and cheerful, for students and pensioners, a mid-range one that appeals to families, and one that has leather sofas, wood flooring, an espresso machine etc, for conspicuous consumers.

Longer trips, outings to the country etc? Book a few days in advance, and probably have to manually drive on sections that the CarBot hive-mind hasn’t fully mapped yet, although they will quickly get fewer and fewer as trips are made. Or, use the train or bus.

In very dense urban areas? Electric micro-mobility things plus bus, tram and metro.

In very rural areas? Trip lengths a bit longer, so probably personally owned hybrids are quite common, but t they are ruddy expensive to buy and run, so the pressure for people to clump together in small towns, and for services like shops in villages to reopen will be greater.

Also, lots of electric and hybrid “white vans” delivering small consignments. Some autonomous, like the tiny ones we have locally already, some attended (person along for the ride and to carry stuff to the door), some manually driven.

Total number of “car sized” vehicles on the road significantly fewer than now, but each one spending a far greater proportion of its time active. Vehicles highly modular and periodic replacement of bits that wear out (batteries; seat cushions; door mechanisms; software; espresso machines; etc).

Maybe, if things go really well, motorways will have overhead power conductors of some sort for use by vehicles (especially heavy trucks) on long trips, obviating the need for heavy batteries, this being something that has already been tested extensively by Siemens, or maybe the distinction between road and rail will gradually blur, and heavy vehicles will put themselves onto railway routes, or climb onto ferry trains, for long hauls.

How far in the future? Maybe fifty years to make a complete transformation, just as it took roughly fifty years (1950-2000) for the complete transformation from “old transport and logistics” to “current model” to happen, but in some places things will transform a lot sooner than that.

PS: caravans ….. most of them seem to spend most of their lives parked-up, either while people camp, or while the van gently decays, so how about hiring a tractor unit only when you want to actually move the thing? For the more romantically inclined, the tractor could be a horse, for the technocratically inclined a horse-shaped hybrid IC/E tug, controlled by an app, rather than reins.

[Jdsk]

Great picture of what's going to be possible in the new future.

I only disagree with one... and that was a "Maybe"!

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

In another decade I think that it will be much more common to use a vehicle that isn't owned personally. That would make it much easier to to select a vehicle that's appropriate to the immediate need.

Does your prediction see most people still having a vehicle of some kind that can be changed when needed.

I don't know how to put numbers onto the likely rate of change. And, as Nearholmer describes, there's going to be enormous variation by area, required use etc.

(At the moment about 80% of adults in the UK have access to a car or van, but again that includes enormous variation by location, income, ethnicity etc.)

Jonathan

[Littgull]

Jonathon will doubtless answer for himself, but I would expect that in areas of suburban population density a “car” in the medium term will be a battery-powered thing you summon, as you summon a lift in a tall building, get into, get taken where you want to go, alight from, and say goodbye to.

I can already summon a small autonomous vehicle and have it bring me a small amount of shopping from the co-op or Tesco, then wave it cheerio, so the idea of a bigger autonomous vehicle that I get into is far from totally alien.

Doubtless there will still be some “car owners”, even in areas well provided with CarBots, just as there are a few car owners now in central London, where there is absolutely no need to own a car, but I would wager there will be a great deal fewer than now, because it will be unnecessary and unfeasibly expensive for most people. Snob-factor/status-display will be served by there being two or three CarBot services, one that is cheap and cheerful, for students and pensioners, a mid-range one that appeals to families, and one that has leather sofas, wood flooring, an espresso machine etc, for conspicuous consumers.

Longer trips, outings to the country etc? Book a few days in advance, and probably have to manually drive on sections that the CarBot hive-mind hasn’t fully mapped yet, although they will quickly get fewer and fewer as trips are made. Or, use the train or bus.

In very dense urban areas? Electric micro-mobility things plus bus, tram and metro.

In very rural areas? Trip lengths a bit longer, so probably personally owned hybrids are quite common, but t they are ruddy expensive to buy and run, so the pressure for people to clump together in small towns, and for services like shops in villages to reopen will be greater.

Also, lots of electric and hybrid “white vans” delivering small consignments. Some autonomous, like the tiny ones we have locally already, some attended (person along for the ride and to carry stuff to the door), some manually driven.

Total number of “car sized” vehicles on the road significantly fewer than now, but each one spending a far greater proportion of its time active. Vehicles highly modular and periodic replacement of bits that wear out (batteries; seat cushions; door mechanisms; software; espresso machines; etc).

Maybe, if things go really well, motorways will have overhead power conductors of some sort for use by vehicles (especially heavy trucks) on long trips, obviating the need for heavy batteries, this being something that has already been tested extensively by Siemens, or maybe the distinction between road and rail will gradually blur, and heavy vehicles will put themselves onto railway routes, or climb onto ferry trains, for long hauls.

How far in the future? Maybe fifty years to make a complete transformation, just as it took roughly fifty years (1950-2000) for the complete transformation from “old transport and logistics” to “current model” to happen, but in some places things will transform a lot sooner than that.

PS: caravans ….. most of them seem to spend most of their lives parked-up, either while people camp, or while the van gently decays, so how about hiring a tractor unit only when you want to actually move the thing? For the more romantically inclined, the tractor could be a horse, for the technocratically inclined a horse-shaped hybrid IC/E tug, controlled by an app, rather than reins.

Incredibly interesting thought provoking post. Thanks for the read Nearholmer.

[reohn2]

The price of new cars has risen somewhat and it’s looking like many people will quite simply be priced off of the road …

Well ..... good. When they price me off the road I'll be quite grateful that they helped me break a bad habit, especially if I end up cycling and walking more (and saving money)......

Cugel, always keen for a good nannying.

What of them that can't manage without a car for any number ogf reasons,eg;MrsR2 can no longer walk more than a a couple of hundred metres on a good day and a lot less on a bad one,and relies on me to driver her?
Her horizons and mine too FTM,would be very limited without personal transportation.

[Carlton green]

The price of new cars has risen somewhat and it’s looking like many people will quite simply be priced off of the road …

Well ..... good. When they price me off the road I'll be quite grateful that they helped me break a bad habit, especially if I end up cycling and walking more (and saving money).

With a bit of luck, they'll ban the eating of meat too.

Cugel, always keen for a good nannying.

Funnily enough I though that you’d pick up on that point and respond as you have .

Experiences vary but in my experience being without personally controlled motorised transport makes people poorer in all sorts of ways; I’ve been poor in those many ways before and wouldn’t wish that poverty on others. Of course how personally controlled motorised transport is provided can both vary and include options that have yet to be developed.

The biggest problems that the planet face are a result of there being too many people on it. For want of a better expression and without wishing to be judgemental people breed too much. In times past infant mortality was very high and those that lived past their early years didn’t have long lives, modern health care has changed much of that.

In a strange way I think that China showed us part of the way forward with their one child policy, a flawed policy IMHO but a recognition of the practical need to control population size. Of course China is just one country - a very significant one though - and it’s up to other Sovereign States to consider what’s reasonable. The UK population has certainly grown and grown too much IMHO, unfortunately the topic is so very thorny - and complex too - that few dare touch it. However, if we do want to manage the world more sustainably then the importance of population, which impacts on so very many things, really does need to be recognised.

[Cugel]

Great picture of what's going to be possible in the new future.

I only disagree with one... and that was a "Maybe"!

Jonathan

Will such possibles turn out to be actuals? Pessimism is generally a poor mindset but at present its difficult to feel the amount of optimism required to believe that those possibles will get anywhere near actuals before various impending disasters make all such stuff moot.

Personally I feel it'll be what it'll be, with various human doings occurring but being driven by the usual human drivers, not some sort of enlightened progress towards a wholly rational utopia. As a counter, perhaps the best we can do is to poke at our brain infesting idea-collection in an effort to stop "choosing" (ha ha, as if we ever choose) the crazy stuff in favour of the (apparently, at least) nurturing stuff.

Not as easy at it sounds though, eh? Those buddy unintended consequences! Those snakey notions slithering about in our minds and forever presenting us with a juicy but toxic technology-apple or a cunning plan full of hidden disaster-worms.

Cugel

[reohn2]

The stats don't appear to show better reliability for EVs.

More breakdowns and the cost of a breakdown far higher.

It’s still fairly early days for mass application of EVs to road transport, so we’re almost certainly in the “teething troubles” stage, after all it’s only in the past c25 years that IC motor cars have become boringly dependable.

There really isn’t much to go wrong with an EV, at least not with a pure EV, so very high reliability is eminently achievable. Hybrids are a horse of a different complexity, some of what the automotive sector has come up with being of bonkers levels of complexity, and depending upon how the current figures are collated they may be polluting the statistics.

If you want to look at a sector where EVs are very mature indeed, and likewise ICVs, try rail, and you will find that task-for-task the E versions are more reliable and cheaper to maintain, granting that battery EV is a bit niche in rail applications, most electric trains collect current from the infrastructure, so a bit of cost and unreliability needs to be factored-in for batteries, and some factored-out for current collection apparatus.

Whatever the case for and against EV for road use, unreliability surely won’t count against EV in the longer term, blindingly obvious engineering logic says that it won’t.

It seems to me the problem with any modern EV is battery life and or failure,LiOn batteries do have their problems and once the battery life is coming to an end the car is worthless as the cost of a new battery is so expensive.Add to that range anxiety due to there not being enough working chargers available not tocmention the different plug configutaions

But the main problem as has been said many times,is the vehicle itself in certain applications,eg;he congestion it causes on arterial routes into towns and cities.
The private car should IMHO be banned from towns and cities other than in special circumstances.
Good quality reliable public transport and or two wheelers such as bikes,ebikes,stand on escooters and scooters and motorcycles would reduce both congestion and both noise and air pollution also twowheeelers take up far less space when not in use.

[Cugel]

The biggest problems that the planet face are a result of there being too many people on it. For want of a better expression and without wishing to be judgemental people breed too much. In times past infant mortality was very high and those that lived past their early years didn’t have long lives, modern health care has changed much of that.

In a strange way I think that China showed us part of the way forward with their one child policy, a flawed policy IMHO but a recognition of the practical need to control population size. Of course China is just one country - a very significant one though - and it’s up to other Sovereign States to consider what’s reasonable. The UK population has certainly grown and grown too much IMHO, unfortunately the topic is so very thorny - and complex too - that few dare touch it. However, if we do want to manage the world more sustainably then the importance of population, which impacts on so very many things, really does need to be recognised.

It isn't hyperbolic to call the current levels of human population on the planet "an infestation". Perhaps even "a plague". The anthropocene age, short as it is, seems already to have wreaked enormous damage on so very much across the earth and its biosphere. The damaging behaviours (and the human population) seem to be increasing, not diminishing, despite what various extreme optimists seem to believe.

One may read various projections of human population growth that insist that there will soon be a peak but then a diminishing population. But such projections ignore vast swathes of other possibilities, not to mention even vaster swathes of potentially contributing factors and their extremely complex interactions.

Predicting the future is a fool's game and always has been.

But some trends seem safe enough to predict. Cugeldamus now predicts that the fundamental drive of humans to keep living, thriving and breeding will overcome all but the (also inevitable) population crash. Only the mechanisms driving that crash are less predictable, as in which ones get us all first. But come they will.

Cugel, once more a harbinger of doom.