Not giving my money to the fossel fuel industry

[Nearholmer]

once the battery life is coming to an end the car is worthless as the cost of a new battery is so expensive

No, the car is full of worth, it just needs a replacement battery, in the same way that a car periodically needs replacement tyres.

Batteries are ruddy expensive, but they are only c20% of the cost of the vehicle overall, so there is no case in terms of cost or sustainability to junk the entire car for want of new cells, any more than you’d junk a car for want of new tyres, or “because the astray is full”, to use the old phrase.

It’s even conceivable that the replacement “battery” might be a completely different technology in N years time. A fuel cell, or something else.

This is what I mean about modularity. The future car will be as trains have been for decades, an assemblage of modules that have known, and predictable lifespans. The main monocoque structure might last fifty or a hundred years; the suspension and steering parts twenty or thirty; the batteries ten; the tyres five; the drivetrain twenty or thirty; the management software will be updated six-monthly; the interior furnishings two or three years (if the car is a TaxiBot); etc.

The cost of ownership profile will be different from the present model, and if one leases it or buys use by the hour the cost of use different again.

Paradigm shift.

[Jdsk]

once the battery life is coming to an end the car is worthless as the cost of a new battery is so expensive

No, the car is full of worth, it just needs a replacement battery, in the same way that a car periodically needs replacement tyres.

Batteries are ruddy expensive, but they are only c20% of the cost of the vehicle overall, so there is no case in terms of cost or sustainability to junk the entire car for want of new cells.
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And it's looking as if batteries that are no longer fit for purpose in cars can be reused in buildings. And then recycled.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

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It seems to me the problem with any modern EV is battery life and or failure,LiOn batteries do have their problems and once the battery life is coming to an end the car is worthless as the cost of a new battery is so expensive.Add to that range anxiety due to there not being enough working chargers available not tocmention the different plug configutaions
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Compatibility of connectors is looking good.

And range anxiety becomes much less of a problem in that scenario where you choose a vehicle for a particular use or journey. This is very different from owning one vehicle that has to do all of the jobs.

But availability of chargers should be much better. And the state should be doing much more to get over that hump.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

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But the main problem as has been said many times,is the vehicle itself in certain applications,eg;he congestion it causes on arterial routes into towns and cities.
The private car should IMHO be banned from towns and cities other than in special circumstances.
Good quality reliable public transport and or two wheelers such as bikes,ebikes,stand on escooters and scooters and motorcycles would reduce both congestion and both noise and air pollution also twowheeelers take up far less space when not in use.

Yes, the interaction between decreased personal ownership of a car-like object and better infrastructure for walking and cycling and willingness to walk or cycle is extremely interesting. And, as always, different for different people in different locations.

Jonathan

[Nearholmer]

Yep, if the state is serious about all this, it needs to take the whole charging infrastructure business by the scruff of the neck and sort it out.

My conclusion based on evidence to date is that they are no more serious about it than they are about home insulation, de-carbonising heating, or anything else. On which basis, Cugeldamus is probably right with his dire prognostications.

[Cugel]

The price of new cars has risen somewhat and it’s looking like many people will quite simply be priced off of the road …

Well ..... good. When they price me off the road I'll be quite grateful that they helped me break a bad habit, especially if I end up cycling and walking more (and saving money)......

Cugel, always keen for a good nannying.

What of them that can't manage without a car for any number ogf reasons,eg;MrsR2 can no longer walk more than a a couple of hundred metres on a good day and a lot less on a bad one,and relies on me to driver her?
Her horizons and mine too FTM,would be very limited without personal transportation.

Well ......

Not that long ago (in the first decade or two of my own lifetime) very few had cars yet there were still folk who found it harder to be mobile, for all sorts of reasons, than the norm. Various solutions were available although none as convenient as the car. On the other hand, since cars were rare and unaffordable for most, modes of living even for the not-so-mobile were found and enjoyed.

But these days there are better alternatives, even to the car. There are, for example, e-bikes that can take another adult as a passenger. It's not hard to imagine these things becoming better designed and variegated in their size, power, configuration, etc. to enable many to be mobile who otherwise wouldn't be. E-bike and sidecar, sir?

********
Where do we stop in finding "reasons I personally need a car"? You and the missus have a very good case in our present circumstances but are other cases as good? Many will insist they need a car to take the children to school, 500 yards away. I had neighbours who "couldn't do without my car" who only seemed to use it to go 300 yards to the local shop for their fags and Daily Liar; or across the village 800 yards to the pub and back, sober or drunk.

Cars have a teeny weeny time of existence compared to the human race. How did we manage before? Less well in some ways, certainly, but let's not forget the true costs of all our modern conveniences. That cost is coming to us even now in the form of a vast bill that may demand our lives, comforts, wellbeings or even existence as a viable species.

Cugel

[Cugel]

once the battery life is coming to an end the car is worthless as the cost of a new battery is so expensive

No, the car is full of worth, it just needs a replacement battery, in the same way that a car periodically needs replacement tyres.

Batteries are ruddy expensive, but they are only c20% of the cost of the vehicle overall, so there is no case in terms of cost or sustainability to junk the entire car for want of new cells, any more than you’d junk a car for want of new tyres, or “because the astray is full”, to use the old phrase.

It’s even conceivable that the replacement “battery” might be a completely different technology in N years time. A fuel cell, or something else.

This is what I mean about modularity. The future car will be as trains have been for decades, an assemblage of modules that have known, and predictable lifespans. The main monocoque structure might last fifty or a hundred years; the suspension and steering parts twenty or thirty; the batteries ten; the tyres five; the drivetrain twenty or thirty; the management software will be updated six-monthly; the interior furnishings two or three years (if the car is a TaxiBot); etc.

The cost of ownership profile will be different from the present model, and if one leases it or buys use by the hour the cost of use different again.

Paradigm shift.

I hope that's right. In particular, I hope that various tech modules making up a whole machine of some kind will not only be replaceable with better (less damaging, exploitative and costly) parts but that the old parts will see facilities developed to recycle them as close to 100% (and without toxic side effects) as possible.

Such a scenario is a possibility; but of what likelihood? The dominant fashion + planned obsolescence via junk-making & selling model of commerce won't disappear unless the fundamentals of our economic ideologies and practices change. There's a gigantic resistance to that.

Cugel

[Carlton green]

The price of new cars has risen somewhat and it’s looking like many people will quite simply be priced off of the road …

Well ..... good. When they price me off the road I'll be quite grateful that they helped me break a bad habit, especially if I end up cycling and walking more (and saving money)......

Cugel, always keen for a good nannying.

What of them that can't manage without a car for any number ogf reasons,eg;MrsR2 can no longer walk more than a a couple of hundred metres on a good day and a lot less on a bad one,and relies on me to driver her?
Her horizons and mine too FTM,would be very limited without personal transportation.

Gosh, you say that like us small people actually matter. The rich will find there way through this and preserve the best of the species, and us lesser beings can go sit quietly in our corner until we live no more.

When I’m no longer able to drive I’ll check out electric bikes and if my balance goes then perhaps trikes too. Maybe Taxis will become more available when more of the population can’t drive, they were never cheap but neither is running a car … IIRC Taxis aren’t that reliable though, they sometimes arrive but rarely on time. For those without physical mobility the future doesn’t look good, but trikes with a big box at the front might carry a wheel chair and occupant - far from ideal but better than nothing. Thank goodness for postal ballots, at least the infirm can vote for change from the comfort - and confinement - of their own home.

[Tangled Metal]

once the battery life is coming to an end the car is worthless as the cost of a new battery is so expensive

No, the car is full of worth, it just needs a replacement battery, in the same way that a car periodically needs replacement tyres.

Batteries are ruddy expensive, but they are only c20% of the cost of the vehicle overall, so there is no case in terms of cost or sustainability to junk the entire car for want of new cells, any more than you’d junk a car for want of new tyres, or “because the astray is full”, to use the old phrase.

It’s even conceivable that the replacement “battery” might be a completely different technology in N years time. A fuel cell, or something else.

This is what I mean about modularity. The future car will be as trains have been for decades, an assemblage of modules that have known, and predictable lifespans. The main monocoque structure might last fifty or a hundred years; the suspension and steering parts twenty or thirty; the batteries ten; the tyres five; the drivetrain twenty or thirty; the management software will be updated six-monthly; the interior furnishings two or three years (if the car is a TaxiBot); etc.

The cost of ownership profile will be different from the present model, and if one leases it or buys use by the hour the cost of use different again.

Paradigm shift.

20% of new vehicle cost not cost at time of battery change. How long do batteries reliably last and what price is replacement battery compared to price at that time?

Also, what is the rate of range reduction with time? Aiui vehicle batteries reduce the energy storage and release over time with charging which causes range to drop off. I read somewhere that replacement of the battery is partly related to how much the range has dropped making it less practical.

This might not be a big issue and might get sorted through various systems set up by the industry but these issues will be a factor in owning and running EVs. Could these issues also be classed as reliability issues? ICEs and EVs have similar and totally different issues perhaps we need to make sure everything gets factored in when comparing them wrt reliability, cost and use.

[Jdsk]

...
Also, what is the rate of range reduction with time? Aiui vehicle batteries reduce the energy storage and release over time with charging which causes range to drop off. I read somewhere that replacement of the battery is partly related to how much the range has dropped making it less practical.
...

It's probably something like 0 to 10% deterioration at 10 years or 150,000 km.

Typical current (!) warranties are 8 years or 100,000 miles.

There's quite a lot on this in the archives.

Jonathan

[Nearholmer]

20% of new vehicle cost not cost at time of battery change. How long do batteries reliably last and what price is replacement battery compared to price at that time?

Roughly 8 years is a good number for budgeting purposes.

I’m confused by your point about the 20%. Very roughly, a new battery costs a fifth the price of a new car, is what I’m trying to say.

Over the past few years, battery capacity per weight or volume has increased markedly, so in some cases it has made sense to fit a new battery as an “upgrade”, let alone because the initial one has degraded.

As a sort of annoying or provocative footnote: if governments stick to their guns, we will soon be past the point where comparing IC and EV is relevant, because you won’t be able to buy a new IC anyway. As the legacy fleet of ICVs gradually shuffles off to the scrapyard, support for them will reduce, they will progressively become obsolete things for hobbyists to show at transport rallies, and the cost of personal hyper-mobility will be set by the cost of using an EV …… which will probably be high enough to make us think twice about using one if we don’t need to.

[Biospace]

Where do we stop in finding "reasons I personally need a car"? You and the missus have a very good case in our present circumstances but are other cases as good?

Cars have a teeny weeny time of existence compared to the human race. How did we manage before? Less well in some ways, certainly, but let's not forget the true costs of all our modern conveniences. That cost is coming to us even now in the form of a vast bill that may demand our lives, comforts, wellbeings or even existence as a viable species.
Cugel

Mankind has always had an urge to travel, to make their transport a little more comfortable and ornate than their neighbour's. A change of vista does the soul good, although too many forget there's a lifetime of discovery within 30 miles of where they live. Trans-Continental trade has taken place for millenia, it's possible things have changed far less than we imagine - but the waste has increased to the point of destroying us, something we'll either deal with or die. Teslas are a great example of this.

The motor car has developed a very bad name for itself through being allowed to develop without hindrance as to size, mass and power. It's possible to engineer a two seater sports/commuter car which would do 250mpg or electrical equivalent - or more. Mass and other inefficiencies are a vicious circle - PV panels on the roof of a Tesla would add little, those on a super-economical machine could make a big difference.

Jonathon will doubtless answer for himself, but I would expect that in areas of suburban population density a “car” in the medium term will be a battery-powered thing you summon, as you summon a lift in a tall building, get into, get taken where you want to go, alight from, and say goodbye to.

In very rural areas? Trip lengths a bit longer, so probably personally owned hybrids are quite common, but t they are ruddy expensive to buy and run, so the pressure for people to clump together in small towns, and for services like shops in villages to reopen will be greater.
that.

Possibly, but there are lot of working people who prefer to own their own tools, and will find a way to do so. I hear tens of thousands are using Chinese versions of Eberspacher-like space heaters (intended for boats and truck cabs, about £100) to heat their homes this winter - the cost per kWh (unit) is around 12p on diesel (plenty will be running on free waste oil).

If the car becomes unaffordable for someone on a 'working wage', he'll not wait months for a bus company to re-invest and introduce multiple extra services to take him to and from work - the job would be long gone. It's possible that some form of hybrid between a velomobile and enclosed motorbike would rapidly evolve, free of most of the regulations the cash-cow 'car' has been lumbered with.

Why? They simplify the car significantly - no cambelts, oil changes, clutches, injectors or fuel pumps, exhaust silencers, EGR or DPF, ignition coil packs and so on. I never liked the over-electronification of a mechanical device powered along by setting fire to fuel, whereas I see the EV is an electrical and electronic device with wheels. They should be stunningly reliable, until there's little alternative and limiting life expectancy becomes part of the design.

The stats don't appear to show better reliability for EVs.

More breakdowns and the cost of a breakdown far higher.

I don't think better reliability is an argument for EVs. My personal experience is no breakdowns in almost 5 years with my current vehicle.

So. More expensive. Less reliable. Shorter range. Just as well they get huge tax breaks because they have little else to recommend them.

Not so, they are intrinsically more reliable, as demonstrated by billions of devices already super-reliably powered by rechargeable battery technology, by those powered by electric motors and those with suspension and wheels. The new combination of these existing technologies will temporaily bump up the figures.

Taxi companies would not be using EVs if they were not dependable, I suspect user naïevty plays a part (running out of charge), poor dealer support for new models and an all-new product for the Americans and Europeans. Teslas are well known for their reliability problems, speaking personally and anecdotally. And there are a lot of them.

I see your link suggests the same and the problems occurring with software took up to five days to repair, compared with a three-day repair for gasoline cars, and four days for diesels. 'The trade' does not like EVs whatsoever - they know they're trouble, as in less easy to make a living from.

once the battery life is coming to an end the car is worthless as the cost of a new battery is so expensive

No, the car is full of worth, it just needs a replacement battery, in the same way that a car periodically needs replacement tyres.

Batteries are ruddy expensive, but they are only c20% of the cost of the vehicle overall.

I tend to consider production cost rather than what manufacturers can get away with selling something for. My instincts were 40%-ish, depending on size, so had a look and found the pic below. Electric motors are relatively inexpensive, batteries are where the cost lies (and the environmental destruction) - most need 90 mile range batteries and fantastic recharging infrastructure.

Experiences vary but in my experience being without personally controlled motorised transport makes people poorer in all sorts of ways; I’ve been poor in those many ways before and wouldn’t wish that poverty on others.

I agree wholeheartedly and too often it's the relatively wealthy (and often remarkable selfish and ignorant) opining on how the masses should behave and live. Terrible housing has consistently been designed for the masses and lauded as the most terrific thing, while those doing the lauding find a pleasant Victorian semi in a leafy suburb with a large back garden in which to luxuriate.

And it's looking as if batteries that are no longer fit for purpose in cars can be reused in buildings. And then recycled.

Jonathan

They certainly can, just as many off-gridders have long used second hand fork lift battery sets. It's just that lithium battery tech is truly awful for recycling compared with traditional types. Hopefully, there will be some revolution in this matter.

The biggest problems that the planet face are a result of there being too many people on it.

It isn't hyperbolic to call the current levels of human population on the planet "an infestation". Perhaps even "a plague". The anthropocene age, short as it is, seems already to have wreaked enormous damage on so very much across the earth and its biosphere. The damaging behaviours (and the human population) seem to be increasing, not diminishing, despite what various extreme optimists seem to believe.

There are more than we may like, but it's not as simple as pure numbers. It's the way the rich section (USA, England to some extent) are living as if there's 5 planet Earths, exploiting the poor sections of the world. One American's energy consumption could support a whole village of productive Africans who take nothing from the planet.

Anyone see Jon Snow's trip to Ikaria earlier this evening? https://www.memorabletv.com/episodes/ho ... uary-2023/

[al_yrpal]

Yes, I saw it. Looked idylic. But...he, Jon, is getting a bit shaky

Just realised that the island is next to Samos where we had three very nice holidays

Al

[reohn2]

I'll try and tackle the replies to my posts:-
I'm talking about now,I suspect things regarding personal transport will change with time I'm sure,until then I need a car for reasons stipulated.
Replacing batteries:- has anyone or knows anyone who owns an electric car who's changed their worn out battery,and a) how much the new battery cost? b)what was the labour costs of removal of the old and fitting of the new battery?,c)what they were they charged for disposal of the old battery?
I watched a couple of long distance videos on electric car and motorcycle travel in the UK,the trip wasn't a pleasurable experience due to charges not working,people leaving their vehicle far longer than it took to charge whilst they went off and did something else leaving a queue of people waiting to charge their car or m/c or there just not being enough chargers in places where they show be,admittedly things will change but they're nowhere near there yet.
It's now emerging that electric vehicles will shortly have to pay VED and that charging is becoming costlier than petrol,and that Ecars eat tyres at an alarming rate due to their extra weight and phenominal acceleration which owners can't resist
Ecars and most certainly large Emotorcycles aren't the panacea once thought,ICE powered vehicles will IMO be with us for a long time yet,that's why I've no plans to buy an Ecar and will stick with my 13yearold 91,000mile deisel Smax,Ecars presently will not serve mine and MrsR2's needs or wants.

[Jdsk]

...
It's now emerging that electric vehicles will shortly have to pay VED and that charging is becoming costlier than petrol,and that Ecars eat tyres at an alarming rate due to their extra weight and phenominal acceleration which owners can't resist
...

That statement about tyre wear is empirically testable... what's the evidence, please?

Thanks

Jonathan