Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

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JohnMorgan
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by JohnMorgan »

Not unless the second hand market takes off - and I can’t see that happening unless the vendors can prove a fully functioning battery/motor.
Tangled Metal
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Tangled Metal »

No. Simple answer.

Longer answer is no for several reasons. Price, use, personal preference and different markets.

I'll not buy one until its my only way to cope with the hills because it's more costly to get one at the same quality level as an ordinary bike. More to go wrong.

Use I don't want the hassle of another device to keep charged. I own bikes that don't need charging which we have hassle with on holidays as it is. I got bike that do day to day and touring not an option due to charging e bike.

I also think that a lot of countries with high proportion of ebikes are different in culture to us in terms of cycling. Netherlands has a big cycling culture for everyday transport with the segregated infrastructure to match. As I result people cycle well into their senior years. A lot of those used ebikes when we toured over there 6 years ago. It'll be more common now I think. In top of that there's more cargo bikes and Dutch bikes. Teenagers cycling with others being carried on the rear rack seat. I think some were ebikes too. In the UK it's totally different but there is an element of difference in who uses the ebikes. It's this partly new cyclists market that is perhaps going to be the big increase in ebike sales leaving other cyclists to continue with normal bikes.

All subjective opinion and we could all be right.

However until reasonably good quality ebikes are as cheap as equivalent normal bikes and until there's a good charging option allowing their use as touring bikes I think I'll not be looking at them.

PS don't mention the iffy green electricity schemes ppl might be juicing their ebikes with.
Biospace
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Biospace »

No, but they could come to dominate the market if nations support use of the bicycle for commuting with proper infrastructure.
mig
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by mig »

JohnMorgan wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 6:14am Not unless the second hand market takes off - and I can’t see that happening unless the vendors can prove a fully functioning battery/motor.
how does the second hand market for electric cars perform?

how are typical e bike batteries 'defined' in terms of long term usage? a number of recharge cycles?
Jdsk
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Jdsk »

mig wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 11:43am
JohnMorgan wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 6:14am Not unless the second hand market takes off - and I can’t see that happening unless the vendors can prove a fully functioning battery/motor.
how does the second hand market for electric cars perform?
...
It's very immature. I don't know if tests of battery function are common.

Jonathan
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horizon
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by horizon »

Milfred Cubicle wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 3:28pm As someone has already said, it's precisely the challenge of physical exertion that attracts many people to cycling,
I would say that it's precisely the challenge of physical exertion that deters many people from cycling, that and the rain, the hassle of getting the bike out and your leg over and where to put it when you get there.

Having said that, I was out on my folder the other day and was approached by a youngish couple (40s?) who said that they were thinking about a folder for their motor home. Correction, he said that they were considering an electric folder. Something attracted them, I'm not sure what. Maybe in the back of their minds the idea of the motor edged them over a line that they felt comfortable with. I mentioned that it might be better to look at storing the bikes on the back of the vehicle as even folders took up space but that I thought he wouldn't need electric - yet. He laughed.

I think the space that most people occupy in their minds nowadays is a certain level of exertion related to everything else in their lives. Obviously this varies from person to person, from different places and eras. But in today's world the way a person conceptualises an action, for example, turning on the TV, ordering food, or travelling from A to B is that it is exertion-free or minimal. Physical exertion belongs in the gym.

So an instinctive assessment of leaving the motorhome at the campsite and cycling to the local shops would be that an electric bike would be a reasonable proposition. And I think that is where ebikes are at the moment - they fit well into the zeitgeist, whether for new or existing cyclists. In relation to everything else in our lives, a non-powered bicycle doesn't make sense.

I would just add though that physical exertion might not be the only factor: time constraints and our conception of how we spend time is also important if not more so. What we expect to do in a certain amount of time is often determined by powered assistance - people often describe mileage in terms of how many minutes it takes to drive. And of course by reducing the physical effort involved, you are usually reducing the time spent.

I would say therefore that ebikes are less of a technology than a mindset. And whether ebikes will kill off conventional bikes will be a reflection of where our culture is at and how it affects our perception of how we relate to the world around us rather than the technology per se.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
Biospace
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Biospace »

mig wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 11:43am
JohnMorgan wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 6:14am Not unless the second hand market takes off - and I can’t see that happening unless the vendors can prove a fully functioning battery/motor.
how does the second hand market for electric cars perform?

how are typical e bike batteries 'defined' in terms of long term usage? a number of recharge cycles?

I bought (then sold) three second hand ebikes 6 or 7 years ago to see how they performed and how front vs rear drive, hub vs crank motor worked. The prices were low at the time, but all the batteries were good for 80% or more of their new capacity and performed well.

Looking here, https://www.ebay.co.uk/sch/i.html?_nkw= ... Complete=1 prices seem to have firmed up considerably since then.

Number of charge cycles is a large factor in determining how many more times they can be used, not allowing them to fully charge or discharge will also improve their use.
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Sweep
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Sweep »

Biospace wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 11:57am

Number of charge cycles is a large factor in determining how many more times they can be used, not allowing them to fully charge or discharge will also improve their use.
yep as with all batteries. plus of course it's also not good for them to be left sitting there - another reason in my book to wait until I really need one - otherwise you get into the barmy position where you are forced out on the ebike for the good of the battery - tail wagging dog.

as others have said, more infrastructure is also needed, especially for using for touring. Maybe pubs could install chargers - 2 hour top-up while relaxing/eating.

the situation will improve am sure - we've passed peak car.
Sweep
drossall
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by drossall »

They'll probably expand the size of the overall cycle market, at least compared to what it would have been in a given country, whilst shrinking that for non-assisted cycles. That much seems obvious.

In a few years, people will be earnestly explaining why it's not possible to do a certain journey, or climb a certain hill, without e-assistance, when people very similar to them did precisely that a decade or two ago. That, after all, is why people now can't get to the shops a mile away without a car, and describe the massive disadvantages of using a friction gear or a non-carbon frame when both of those have been around the world.

But people will have been enabled to do things that they could not (in some cases) and would not (in others) have done by bicycle before. And even club members whose best years are behind them may still be participating with friends, because of a bit of help - I've seen it happen, and who knows, I may do it myself.

So it's swings and roundabouts.
mig
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by mig »

drossall wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 1:40pm So it's swings and roundabouts.
electrically assisted?
tenbikes
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by tenbikes »

I'm still on crutches following surgery but have just done ten days off road riding around Aviemore.
I rather rapidly converted one of my fat bikes to mid drive before leaving home.

Really happy to be riding but it would have been impossible without assist.

I'm looking forward to returning to my normal bike, but will certainly be keeping this conversion. I'm not getting any younger......
hoogerbooger
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by hoogerbooger »

Well? wouldn't Darwin suggest it's a case of survival of the fittest? So couch potatoes die out 1st, then electric bike cyclists, particularly those with their finger on boost, but eventually leaving traditional heart and lung powered cyclists to rule the earth.....well what's left of it.
old fangled
jb
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by jb »

Audax67 wrote: 21 Mar 2023, 9:30am
jb wrote: 20 Mar 2023, 10:53pm They thought CD's and later downloadable music would kill off vinyl.....
There will always be a market for people who like cycling without power.
Oh please... with power, just not electrical.

My electrified bike is lots of fun, and it enables me to do things I haven't been able to since I was 70, but knock 10 years off my age and I'd toss the motor with alacrity.
Okay Mr pedantic, :D

The point is getting worried about non powered cycles disappearing is silly as with so many humans on the planet somebody some where will always want a quality non assisted tourer, racer, shopping bike or whatever. And the more weird it might seem to have one the more there will be bods wanting them.
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bikes4two
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by bikes4two »

hoogerbooger wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 7:01pm Well? wouldn't Darwin suggest it's a case of survival of the fittest? So couch potatoes die out 1st, then electric bike cyclists, particularly those with their finger on boost, but eventually leaving traditional heart and lung powered cyclists to rule the earth.....well what's left of it.
There's a caveat to what you say in that it is possible to overdo your cycling, especially for those of advancing age, and overdo it to such an extent that you might 'peg out' sooner than expected.

My cycle touring friend of many a long tour, came with me last year on a hilly ride around the south downs - me on my e-bike, him on an un-asisted machine. The poor chap was absolutely knackered and whilst I congratulated him on his efforts I pointed out that he really needed to consider if such exertion was in fact good for him at his stage of life (something his other cycling buddies had mentioned too.).

Our next time out we were both on e-bikes and I'm now more confident of having many more cafe/cake runs in the future.
Without my stoker, every trip would only be half a journey
pete75
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by pete75 »

rareposter wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:55pm
cycle tramp wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:00pm ..will we be left with a situation where even if you take off the electrics you'll still be left with a cycle which is over built, and perhaps not that fun to ride when it's not powered?
You can't "remove the electrics" - on some models you can remove the battery and ride it unassisted but "the electrics" like the motor and wiring are all integrated. There's not really any reason to ride an e-bike without the e part of it!

For transport though, they're amazing. It's a HUGE enabler to pretty much everyone. I can get my e-cargo bike up a 10% hill with a weeks worth of shopping on it more quickly than I can get up that same hill on my regular road bike. They are THAT good. The technology now has really bedded in, batteries are only going to get better and the niche for e-cargo in particular has really started to open up.

There'll always be a big market for unassisted bikes though.
Of course you can remove the electrics. Take them off my electric bike and it reverts to a fairly normal Surly LHT. May well do that when my knee returns to normal after an operation.
'Give me my bike, a bit of sunshine - and a stop-off for a lunchtime pint - and I'm a happy man.' - Reg Baker
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