Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

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cycle tramp
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Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by cycle tramp »

Apparently for the first time sales of e-bikes in Germany are likely to outstrip the sales of non-powered bikes...

..this has several implications... one of which, if the trend repeats itself throughout the rest of the western world, will we see the end of quality non-sports bikes, such as touring bikes and commuters, perhaps within the next decade?

..will we be left with a situation where even if you take off the electrics you'll still be left with a cycle which is over built, and perhaps not that fun to ride when it's not powered?
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Jdsk
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Jdsk »

I expect that eBikes will continue to encourage and help people to cycle in many niches: commuting, utility, cargo, groups, touring...

I don't expect them to drive out unassisted bikes.

And more people using eBikes when otherwise they would be using more damaging modes will mean more people on bikes overall and better safety and better facilities.

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PH
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by PH »

For transport - Yes, or if not kill off then at least hugely diminish
For leisure - No, though they will be a bigger part of that market.
I've been making this point for years, if your needs are primarily transport, there isn't much of an argument, other than cost, to not have assistance.
There remains a lot of snobbishness by real cyclists, who begrudgingly admit they're acceptable for those that really need them, I'm encouraged to see that this is diminishing. This recent GCN review of an E-cargo bike is interesting, not just for the presenters experience, but that I don't think it even mentions that a similar non assisted bike would be an option! That's it, just doesn't consider it, this is where we are now for family cargo bikes, other non leisure bikes will shortly follow.

rareposter
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by rareposter »

cycle tramp wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:00pm ..will we be left with a situation where even if you take off the electrics you'll still be left with a cycle which is over built, and perhaps not that fun to ride when it's not powered?
You can't "remove the electrics" - on some models you can remove the battery and ride it unassisted but "the electrics" like the motor and wiring are all integrated. There's not really any reason to ride an e-bike without the e part of it!

For transport though, they're amazing. It's a HUGE enabler to pretty much everyone. I can get my e-cargo bike up a 10% hill with a weeks worth of shopping on it more quickly than I can get up that same hill on my regular road bike. They are THAT good. The technology now has really bedded in, batteries are only going to get better and the niche for e-cargo in particular has really started to open up.

There'll always be a big market for unassisted bikes though.
Nearholmer
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Nearholmer »

No.

Any more than people gave up running, or lifting heavy stuff until their eyes pop, or tearing around in muddy fields in near-zero temperatures and a steady drizzle, or walking huge distances over high fells while lugging all their stuff on their backs, once the need to do those things for survival disappeared in Britain.

So, as a form of fun and exercise, a bit of a challenge etc, bikes will survive.

I even think they’ll survive for light utility use in some places, because where there are few hills then electric assistance is of marginal value, and some people value the marginal exercise of running their errands by pedal power.

We’ve possibly gone beyond bike nadir in this country, which I’d say was somewhere around 1990, and some bike niches are already small and catered to by specialists anyway, serious heavy touring being one.
Milfred Cubicle
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Milfred Cubicle »

That's a really interesting question.
I used to think E bikes were the devil's devices, especially when I see young, fit healthy people on them. However I've had a complete change of heart on them. I've recently been riding with a 70 year old on mountain bike rides- without assistance he probably wouldn't come out riding...so the e bike has proven a great tool to level the field between abilities. Plus if it means a few less cars, great.
As someone has already said, it's precisely the challenge of physical exertion that attracts many people to cycling, and I'm sure this will continue. Looks at what happened when we got 30+ years, suspension and electric shifting....there was an upsurge in people riding single speeds and fixies!
Culture=counter culture and all that.
Carlton green
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Carlton green »

cycle tramp wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:00pm Apparently for the first time sales of e-bikes in Germany are likely to outstrip the sales of non-powered bikes...

..this has several implications... one of which, if the trend repeats itself throughout the rest of the western world, will we see the end of quality non-sports bikes, such as touring bikes and commuters, perhaps within the next decade?

..will we be left with a situation where even if you take off the electrics you'll still be left with a cycle which is over built, and perhaps not that fun to ride when it's not powered?
My suspicion is that e-bikes are an additional market rather than a replacement market. I’ve mixed feelings about e-bikes, I dislike the cost and complexity that they add to cycle use but they are also a constructive enabler too. The market for e-bikes is, at the moment, large and there are relatively few second hand e-bikes available - if someone wants an e-bike then new is the easier route and the more quality assured route too. My suspicion is that e-bike use will become a more used option, an option that replaces some miles done by other forms of motorised transport; I wouldn’t be surprised if some people who come to ‘cycling’ via e-bikes end up also riding conventional bikes too.

Mopeds (petrol) have been available for decades but they aren’t popular, their roots are in small petrol motors being added to traditional bicycles.
Don’t fret, it’s OK to: ride a simple old bike; ride slowly, walk, rest and admire the view; ride off-road; ride in your raincoat; ride by yourself; ride in the dark; and ride one hundred yards or one hundred miles. Your bike and your choices to suit you.
mig
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by mig »

knowing very little about E bikes my question would be how fast do the components 'age' and become difficult to replace?

e.g. will it still be possible to replace the battery on today's topline model in ,say, 5 years time?

or will the tendency & economics push people towards new bikes at that point?
PH
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by PH »

Carlton green wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 4:27pm My suspicion is that e-bikes are an additional market rather than a replacement market.
The OP invites us to speculate on the future but there's no need to do so on the present when there's so much data available. I don't know which report Cycle Travel is referring to but five minutes on Google will show you your suspicions are only partly correct and that although overall bike sale are up, that increase is less than that of e-bike sales (Units)
On an anecdotal level, I know lots of cyclists, including myself, who choose to use an E-bike for a proportion of their cycling that they previously did unassisted. In most cases this has also lead to an increase in that individuals overall cycling. This is reflected in the research.
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by PH »

Nearholmer wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 3:12pm I even think they’ll survive for light utility use in some places, because where there are few hills then electric assistance is of marginal value,
Like the Netherlands?
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Nearholmer
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Nearholmer »

I was actually thinking initially of the flat university towns but, yes, I should imagine that pushbikes will still be found in utility use in the Netherlands in, say, 25 years time, in the same way that people still buy manual tools despite the widespread availability and popularity of battery-electric alternatives, screwdrivers, for instance. The OP asks “kill off?”, which sounds pretty absolute to me, and I still think “no”.
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Sweep
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Sweep »

mig wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 4:35pm knowing very little about E bikes my question would be how fast do the components 'age' and become difficult to replace?

e.g. will it still be possible to replace the battery on today's topline model in ,say, 5 years time?

or will the tendency & economics push people towards new bikes at that point?
I asked this very question of the owner of a large retailer of ebikes in outer london/surrey burbs a few years ago. He cheerily said that after 5 to 8 years I would just buy another ebike. Really p'ed me off. I'd just pootled off the downs on a several decades old humble bike I had rebuilt/rejigged.
Personally I will wait. A valid reasonable attitude I think.
Yes of course they have their uses and I wish them all the best in that.
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axel_knutt
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by axel_knutt »

Nearholmer wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 3:12pm So, as a form of fun and exercise, a bit of a challenge etc, bikes will survive.
It might become an expensive passtime for those who can afford bikes that no longer enjoy the same economies of scale though, a bit like trying to find touring bikes after the mountain bike fashion took over the market.
mig wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 4:35pm knowing very little about E bikes my question would be how fast do the components 'age' and become difficult to replace?

e.g. will it still be possible to replace the battery on today's topline model in ,say, 5 years time?

or will the tendency & economics push people towards new bikes at that point?
My bike's 22 years old and still useable, I can't see that being the case if it was electric, by the time the battery has been replaced for the first time it'll be a throwaway product. I doubt my 15 year old TV was still repairable much after 5-10 years, but at least that doesn't have a battery to wear out in a couple of years.

I wouldn't consider getting an e-bike because I don't think the spares will be available, and because I wouldn't risk getting dumped by a battery that runs flat with 30% still showing on the charge indicator. (I think I'd also need a bike that's fully powered rather than assisted, too.)
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Jdsk
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Jdsk »

mig wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 4:35pm knowing very little about E bikes my question would be how fast do the components 'age' and become difficult to replace?

e.g. will it still be possible to replace the battery on today's topline model in ,say, 5 years time?
...
I expect it to vary enormously.

eBikes and drivetrains from prestigious manufacturers will probably support easy replacement of batteries and feasible replacement of other components.

Cheaper models not so much. But an unlicensed trade will develop around them. And then there's DIY.

Right to repair legislation will become more widespread, although what will happen in the UK is anyone's guess.

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Cowsham
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Cowsham »

cycle tramp wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:00pm Apparently for the first time sales of e-bikes in Germany are likely to outstrip the sales of non-powered bikes...

..this has several implications... one of which, if the trend repeats itself throughout the rest of the western world, will we see the end of quality non-sports bikes, such as touring bikes and commuters, perhaps within the next decade?

..will we be left with a situation where even if you take off the electrics you'll still be left with a cycle which is over built, and perhaps not that fun to ride when it's not powered?
No.
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