Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

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Bmblbzzz
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

PH wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 10:43am
Bmblbzzz wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 2:20pm
PH wrote: 18 Mar 2023, 2:32pm I've been making this point for years, if your needs are primarily transport, there isn't much of an argument, other than cost, to not have assistance.
Cost is a pretty big argument though.
I disagree. Although there is a small percentage of the UK and Europe population who can't afford one, for the vast majority the barrier is mental rather than financial. It's twofold, first the idea that bikes are toys that only cost a few quid and once that is overcome, the risk that they might spend thousands and still end up with something that wasn't used.
That's why free trials, like the one currently underway in Leicester, are so useful, the chance to see how much value you would get from owning one:
https://www.cyclinguk.org/press-release ... munity-hub
Related to cost is availability. You quite likely have a bike somewhere in the back of the shed
That seems a circular argument - You could use the one in the shed would be true with or without E-bikes.
But more importantly, transport of what?
Do people consider what they're transporting when they get in the car? Sometimes for sure, but probably in most cases not, it's simply to get themselves from A to B.
The bike you have forgotten in the shed is probably not an e-bike. In ten years or so it might be but not now. And the one you can get s/h worldwide is certainly not electric. I did say:
Related to cost is availability. You quite likely have a bike somewhere in the back of the shed or if you don't, you can easily get one secondhand, anywhere in the world. It'll be quite a few years till that's the case with e-bikes, except in advanced markets like Germany (or the UK).
That's anywhere in the world and including the UK as an advanced market – a world context, not saying it's as advanced in this respect as Germany. Non-electric bikes won't be killed off even if they become an obscure minority in the West.
Even if we restrict our scope to Europe, cost being a barrier (for anything) is not the same as that thing being unaffordable. As you say, it's a mental barrier – of which cost, or price, forms a part.
drossall
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by drossall »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 12:12pm Cars are everywhere because we've been a hundred years of car-desire. Also because they became the successor to the horse and cart, a gap that cycling didn't manage to fill for whatever reasons.
Arguably it did fill the gap, but only for a few decades. But, as cars emerged, some of the stalwarts of cycling moved on to those. For a short time, cyclists and drivers were in alliance in the Roads Improvements Association, and the then CTC dallied with admitting motorists to membership - something ruled out in a court case in 1906 as incompatible with the CTC's articles of association.
Manc33
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Manc33 »

If I had the energy I had 20 years ago I wouldn't have an eBike. It's quite possible to go 15 miles on mine and get home without feeling like I've lifted a finger or rather, rotated a leg. It's important to get a workout IMO even on these things and of course, it can be turned off anytime on the ride so you can do that. You'll be turning it back on again pretty soon though... mine weighs 60lb. :lol:
We'll always be together, together on electric bikes.
Ayseven
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Ayseven »

At the risk of upsetting people, electric bikes are essentially mopeds. In other words, a different animal to a regular push bike, and attracting people who would otherwise not be on a two wheeled thingamajig at all. So no threat.
Bmblbzzz
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

That's patently not true in every case. There are plenty of people enthusing about how an e-bike enables them to prolong their cycling years, keep on cycling with younger friends, etc. But equally there are plenty never turning a pedal, just sitting on electrons. E-bikes, like that other contentious class gravel bikes, are a wide spread.
Last edited by Bmblbzzz on 29 Mar 2023, 2:33pm, edited 1 time in total.
PH
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by PH »

Ayseven wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 1:59pm At the risk of upsetting people, electric bikes are essentially mopeds. In other words, a different animal to a regular push bike, and attracting people who would otherwise not be on a two wheeled thingamajig at all. So no threat.
I use my E-bike for the sort of riding I get no pleasure from using my non assisted bike for. That's becoming fairly common, see the GCN review I posted earlier.
peterb
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by peterb »

Ayseven wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 1:59pm At the risk of upsetting people, electric bikes are essentially mopeds. In other words, a different animal to a regular push bike, and attracting people who would otherwise not be on a two wheeled thingamajig at all. So no threat.
Rubbish! I've been riding bikes for over 60 years - reckon I've served my time. Now my legs are bu88ered, I'm riding an e-road bike.
Manc33
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Manc33 »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 2:09pmBut equally there are plenty never turning a pedal, just sitting on electrons.
An eBike with 250W (the legal limit) wouldn't get up hills without pedaling. 500W probably wouldn't, at least not anything over 8% gradient. They must be using 1000W setups, or they are going 1 MPH up these hills? They will end up burning out the motor and/or controller.
We'll always be together, together on electric bikes.
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horizon
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by horizon »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 12:12pm Cars are everywhere because we've been a hundred years of car-desire. Also because they became the successor to the horse and cart, a gap that cycling didn't manage to fill for whatever reasons.
You said horse and cart. You could have just said horse, in which case the bike easily sees off the horse. You might also have said four horses and a carriage: yes, the bike can see off the horse but doesn't provide for people to sit down and be driven.

I think we have to be very clear on this thread as to what we are referring to - an unpowered bike cannot be cycled up a hill with a 50 kg load but a cargo ebike possibly can be and thus would replace the horse and cart. The argument is much less clear when we look at just a person on a bicycle.

By the way, what really saw off the horse and cart/carriage was the steam locomotive. It is always power that is required. But that is for long distance: for short distance, a pair of legs will do it.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
drossall
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by drossall »

On the whole, I think a mixed transport economy is probably a good thing, so people buzzing around on scooters and stuff make me smile. I realise that there are issues, but I'd rather deal with an erratic scooter than an erratic car... However much I might think that it's better not to use a motor if you're capable of doing it yourself.
Bmblbzzz
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

horizon wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 5:30pm
Bmblbzzz wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 12:12pm Cars are everywhere because we've been a hundred years of car-desire. Also because they became the successor to the horse and cart, a gap that cycling didn't manage to fill for whatever reasons.
You said horse and cart. You could have just said horse, in which case the bike easily sees off the horse. You might also have said four horses and a carriage: yes, the bike can see off the horse but doesn't provide for people to sit down and be driven.

I think we have to be very clear on this thread as to what we are referring to - an unpowered bike cannot be cycled up a hill with a 50 kg load but a cargo ebike possibly can be and thus would replace the horse and cart. The argument is much less clear when we look at just a person on a bicycle.

By the way, what really saw off the horse and cart/carriage was the steam locomotive. It is always power that is required. But that is for long distance: for short distance, a pair of legs will do it.
It probably wasn't clear, sorry. I was still thinking in terms of marketing, following on from my previous sentence of being fed car-desire. Oh, I've just noticed I didn't even type the word "fed" – it was in my brain but never made it to my fingers – so it was even less clear. Double sorry! Yes, in terms of capabilities, an e-cargo bike (cargo e-bike?) can do much, possibly most, of what a horse and cart (or car) are/were called on to do. But the marketing opportunity was missed, for some reason.

(And to be really picky, the steam locomotive didn't see off the horse and cart; the high point of horse transport in the UK was somewhere between 1900 and 1910, when all the railways used them for last-mile goods, and horse-drawn carriages or cabs provided last mile transport for passengers arriving at stations.)
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horizon
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by horizon »

Bmblbzzz wrote: 29 Mar 2023, 6:47pm (And to be really picky, the steam locomotive didn't see off the horse and cart; the high point of horse transport in the UK was somewhere between 1900 and 1910, when all the railways used them for last-mile goods, and horse-drawn carriages or cabs provided last mile transport for passengers arriving at stations.)
:D yes, you're right.

Another point:
It seems to me that every other form of powered transport requires little or no human exertion apart from that required to operate the controls. The claim made for ebikes is that they are only assisted and therefore still require a lot of human effort. So they are still "bicycles" even if somewhat hybrid. I suppose you could say that they are no more assisted than someone using their bike to get to the station and then going on by train or carrying one on a roof-rack for a ride somewhere else.

It's possible that it is the law that has done this: without the definition of power and speed, then there would be no difference between different levels of "assist" - all the way up to 100% all the time. The law however has created an artificial threshold below which an ebike is still a bicycle. I think that changes everything because it provides an umbrella under which cyclists can still ride and for example, train operators can still allow them onboard. I wonder if, without this definition, all ebikes would have been classed as "motor" bikes and the assisted bicycle wouldn't really exist, or at least not as a clearly separate and distinct entity and indeed not grouped and classed as an ordinary bicycle.
When the pestilence strikes from the East, go far and breathe the cold air deeply. Ignore the sage, stay not indoors. Ho Ri Zon 12th Century Chinese philosopher
Bmblbzzz
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Bmblbzzz »

Well, how do you define "powered transport"? Horse riding looks like it requires little effort other than to operate the controls (reins etc) but having tried it once or twice, that's not true! I suppose though it's one of those things that requires less effort the more you do it. :D

Not sure about the e-assisted bike not existing without the law in its current state. Clearly they do exist in illegal forms too, equally there are places where the ones which are legal here are illegal. What isn't happening in UK is enforcement of this law, but it might be happening elsewhere, and might start here at some point in a better-funded future, sweeping the "unlicensed electric motorbikes" off the streets (or forcing them to get registered, taxed, insured, maybe). But not at the moment.
Nearholmer
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by Nearholmer »

I think I get Horizon’s point, and I was pondering something similar myself yesterday. If the law was really simple, human power = bicycle, any assistance at all doesn’t, we wouldn’t be having debates about needing to limit e-bike power to allow them on shared paths, they just wouldn’t be allowed. And, probably the 250W class of vehicle wouldn’t have emerged, after all, it doesn’t exist to any meaningful extent in IC vehicles, and I don’t think it ever did, even very early mopeds and bolt-on motors were higher power so far as I’m aware.

Now, I’m not saying that would be good, just that it’s an alternative path (not a shred one, obviously) that events could have taken

Us humans are a lazy bunch, we’ll take the highest level of assistance in anything that we can afford to buy, until we suddenly realise we need exercise, then we’ll go mad on exercise, before returning to our electro-mechanically assisted existences.
mumbojumbo
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Re: Will electric bicycles kill off non-electric bicycles?

Post by mumbojumbo »

Some humans are lazy ,but most things ,of real value ,are acquired through sacrifice ,and honest endeavour is more rewarding than a free ride .I am a fan of Calvin, who in addition to advocating a protestant work ethic went on to work as a scientist, inventing temperature and running a circus in Glasgow .He was a proper polymoth..


https://www.theglasgowstory.com/image/?inum=TGSE01252
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