Are you "Infected by a remainer mind virus"?

[roubaixtuesday]

The approach to and handling of Brexit has been a sh*tshow from day one due the complete arrogance of the way successive Tory Brexit ministers,who've been completely out of their depth in the way they've incompetently handled it.
Successive Tory PMs have been no better,they've had no strategy and no idea what they were doing or how to handle the whole Brexit issue that they created,it's been a litany of disaster from start to finish,From May through to Sunak and the couple of lunatics inbetween,although Sunak is trying to backpedal a bit it's all too late more and more damage is being done every day.

Brexit has isolated this country from it's nearest trading neighbours who happen to be the largest trading block in the world,if you put up barrriers to trade which is effectively what the UK has done,business goes elsewhere which is what is happening.
When the likes of Farage are admitting it's failed you know we're well and truly up a brown smelly creek sans paddle.

When the head of the BofE claimed we'll have to get used to being poorer he's right but it's mostly because of the people who fell for snake oil salesmen such as Farage,Johnson,Gove,et al .Believing such people is ruining the country and destroying lives and livelhoods,so I say to those people,at least admit you were wrong.

And if anyone thinks a Tory government can put things right at the next GE look back on the past 13years then ask yourself how much more damage they'll do in the five!

I agree with much of this, but there's also a larger truth.

Most negotiations proceed by allowing a "win win" ie both parties emerge stronger.

The inherent problem with Brexit is that there was no win win ever possible; the concept inherently damages both parties, whatever the negotiation.

Compromising and collaborating where you're going to lose regardless is much, much harder.

Accepting "damage limitation" as the objective was impossible.

Does that lead you to any thoughts on future trading arrangements with the EU? Has the "no win" problem gone away?

Thanks

Jonathan

Broadly speaking, we now are in such a bad position that most changes do bring potential win/wins.

But equally, the uncertainty of future major change is in itself a bad thing.

I predict, and would like, multiple small steps and then a larger reappraisal down the line, but that's at least a decade away.

The Windsor Framework is a good example of how it's likely to go, I think.

[Jdsk]

Thanks

Jonathan

[roubaixtuesday]

Thanks

Jonathan

What's your view?

[Psamathe]

...
I predict, and would like, multiple small steps and then a larger reappraisal down the line, but that's at least a decade away.

The Windsor Framework is a good example of how it's likely to go, I think.

I agree but at the moment I can't see (and politicians are not looking) a way round the big "Freedom of Movement" which is a major step in improving pretty well everything. Could they do 12 month "visa on arrival" that allows working (small step), then make that extendable, etc.

Trouble is loud voiced in Conservative Party are trying to move in the opposite direction.

Ian

[Jdsk]

My view. : - )

Short term:
Sunak knows what's needed for the UK economy, both on trade barriers and migration. And he's trying bits out. But it won't turn out well... it's bound to open those splits within the Conservative Party that caused the whole problem. So it won't even get to rational discussion and rational negotiation. One to watch: UK participation in Horizon.

Longer term (and accepting Keynes' observation on the Long Run):
What I'd like to see is the UK joining the EU. The first step on that road is Labour Party policy. The next thing that will affect that is whether they win an overall majority in the next general section. Beyond that it might depend on Scottish independence and Irish unification. So again it won't hinge on rational analysis or rational negotiation with the EU.

Jonathan

Edited: Crossed with Ian's.

[roubaixtuesday]

...
I predict, and would like, multiple small steps and then a larger reappraisal down the line, but that's at least a decade away.

The Windsor Framework is a good example of how it's likely to go, I think.

I agree but at the moment I can't see (and politicians are not looking) a way round the big "Freedom of Movement" which is a major step in improving pretty well everything. Could they do 12 month "visa on arrival" that allows working (small step), then make that extendable, etc.

Trouble is loud voiced in Conservative Party are trying to move in the opposite direction.

Ian

I agree that even freedom of movement can be helped along in small steps such as those you suggest.

I think ultimately geography and prosperity will trump ideology.

We will see!

[Jdsk]

The UK had considerable competitive advantage for massive production of batteries: the research and development base, high-end manufacturing with potential (!) early adopters, some highly efficient car assembly, and membership of one of the large trading blocs with the consequent home market and influence over standards.

Several of those have rapidly disappeared.

And at the same time we abandoned regional and industrial strategy. Gigafactories need a lot more than an owner, and this has been particularly well illustrated and documented by Tesla at Berlin.

Today's competition: How many Secretaries of State with responsibility for business have there been since Cameron became Prime Minister?

This really is a coincidence... in the last hour:

In first interview since the firm’s collapse, Britishvolt founder Orral Nadjari tells @skynews that the govt, specifically @rishisunak, must take a large part of the blame for its implosion. Says UK has “lost that window of opportunity” to build a battery industry
Mr Nadjari, who co-founded Britishvolt and was CEO until mid-2022, says: “Unless the UK changes its industrial strategy we will keep losing out on large scale projects. Arrival left. The electric Mini left. It's not just Britishvolt.
There’s a clear lack of industrial strategy.”
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/ ... 3428004866

Everyone's joining in on the need for the UK to have an industrial strategy.

Make UK: "Industrial Strategy: A Manufacturing Ambition":
https://www.makeuk.org/insights/reports ... g-ambition

SMMT yesterday:
https://www.smmt.co.uk/2023/05/smmt-sta ... of-origin/

"Energy security and industrial strategy – UK and EU divergence", yesterday:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/energy-security-a ... ivergence/
which concludes:

The UK government has stated that it will release its response to the IRA Inflation Reduction Act) in the autumn. Only when this is published will it become clear whether the delay in the UK’s response is due to the development of a careful and considered strategy, or merely a result of dithering.

I wouldn't have said dithering. The lack of action by the UK government is highly rational. Because any proposal on future trading arrangements with our biggest trading partner will reopen the splits within the Conservative party.

"Rishi Sunak’s lack of industrial strategy attacked by former business secretaries":
https://www.ft.com/content/f568ea6e-51d ... pe=nongift
(Wasn't paywalled when I first looked but now it is!)

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

...
...
https://www.ft.com/content/f568ea6e-51d ... pe=nongift
(Wasn't paywalled when I first looked but now it is!)
..

Paywall removed:
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... %3Dnongift

Ian

[tim-b]

My view. : - )

Short term:
Sunak knows what's needed for the UK economy, both on trade barriers and migration. And he's trying bits out. But it won't turn out well... it's bound to open those splits within the Conservative Party that caused the whole problem. So it won't even get to rational discussion and rational negotiation. One to watch: UK participation in Horizon.

Longer term (and accepting Keynes' observation on the Long Run):
What I'd like to see is the UK joining the EU. The first step on that road is Labour Party policy. The next thing that will affect that is whether they win an overall majority in the next general section. Beyond that it might depend on Scottish independence and Irish unification. So again it won't hinge on rational analysis or rational negotiation with the EU.

Jonathan

Edited: Crossed with Ian's.

I watched Keir Starmer on the TV news last night (BBC, I think). When asked a straight question about re-joining he bumbled and stuttered incoherently. He has 18 months to improve on this...
"There are some who say ‘We don’t need to make Brexit work. We need to reverse it.’

I couldn’t disagree more. Because you cannot move forward or grow the country or deliver change or win back the trust of those who have lost faith in politics if you’re constantly focused on the arguments of the past."
https://labour.org.uk/press/keir-starme ... exit-work/ 4/7/22

[simonineaston]

The fact remains that a) Europe is still our neighbour b) we have much in common c) politics is cyclical by nature. Sooner or later, a player will come along who is capable & prepared to make the case for closer union. Indeed, such people are already with us - they're just biding their time...

[Psamathe]

...
I couldn’t disagree more. Because you cannot move forward or grow the country or deliver change or win back the trust of those who have lost faith in politics if you’re constantly focused on the arguments of the past."
https://labour.org.uk/press/keir-starme ... exit-work/ 4/7/22

If you fail to learn from past mistakes you are going to repeat them. And learning from past mistakes mens admitting they were mistakes.

In the case of Brexit a large part of the solution is in recognising the issues that it has caused. e.g. UK car manufacturers identify major specific issues linked to out leaving the EU (and the way we left the EU) yet Kemi Badenoch a staunch supporter of brexit refuses to recognised Brexit is anything other than perfect utopia "Badenoch claims problem raised by UK carmarkers worried about tariffs 'isn't to do with Brexit'" - denial of the problems means you stand no chance to solve them.

Ian

[Biospace]

Stellantis is where we are now but it’s the end point of decades worth of errors...

It's very possible the high cost of energy is a concern, but I can't find any figures for how much industry pays in the UK compared with other European nations. High energy costs have driven inflation also, something the UK is suffering from worse than others. The result of poor planning by governments, over decades.

Could someone explain how this 10% tariff is applied to the motor industry? Is it applied on import of parts, or to the cost price of the entire vehicle? Does it apply to UK vehicles not exported to the EU?

If it has been paid once - for example when Vauxhall imports Chinese batteries or builds a car with them - is this due a second time when they stick Opel, Peugeot or Fiat badging on a vehicle for export to an EU nation?

There has been a lot of chatter in this thread that it's mostly a Brexit issue, but as far as I can see it's a concern for native EU manufacturers, selling to their home market.

Distance from a gigafactory clearly adds to costs which is why the UK is seeking to build them on UK soil to supply our own factories, but I see BMW are building electric Minis in China in cooperation with their Chinese partner - perhaps this is a pointer to how many more lower range cars sold in the West will be made?

[Jdsk]

...
There has been a lot of chatter in this thread that it's mostly a Brexit issue, but as far as I can see it's a concern for native EU manufacturers, selling to their home market.
...

It depends what you mean by "it".

The rules of origin and their planned changes and dates of change in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement only apply to its signatories: the EU and the UK.

There wouldn't be a TCA if the UK hadn't Left the EU.

If you want to use language like "mostly a Brexit issue" it's up to you. I wouldn't choose to. But the TCA is entirely "a Brexit issue" as it wouldn't exist if the UK hadn't Left.

And clearly someone needs to explain this to the Secretary of State for Business and Trade.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

...
Could someone explain how this 10% tariff is applied to the motor industry? Is it applied on import of parts, or to the cost price of the entire vehicle? Does it apply to UK vehicles not exported to the EU?
...

"Manufacturing after Brexit":
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upload ... INAL-2.pdf

Stellantis evidence to the Select Committee:
https://committees.parliament.uk/writte ... 18270/pdf/

Jonathan

[Psamathe]

... But the TCA is entirely "a Brexit issue" as it wouldn't exist if the UK hadn't Left.

And clearly someone needs to explain this to the Secretary of State for Business and Trade.

Jonathan

And when they do explain it to her, do you think she'll listen or accept. She's a ideological zealot and one of the evangelical supporters of brexit. In her eyes by definition nothing bad can come out of Brexit.

Ian