The future of the UK EU relationship

[Nearholmer]

The EU is massively flawed. Brexit was massively flawed. Politicians are massively flawed. Discuss...

Yes, all true.

One of the things that seldom gets discussed is that the EU is a giant experiment, or voyage into the unknown, attempting to create some institutions spanning the population of an entire continent that are in some way accountable to that population.

It’s something that has only really been tried before with the USA, and we all know how difficult it has been to sustain meaningful democracy across that population.

Wherever else huge populations are gathered together under single institutions, nobody really bothers much about democracy, except to suppress it when it threatens The Grand Plan. Historically, the last thing anybody building a giant system spanning a huge population considered was the welfare of that population other than maybe a few %; it was all about empire, conquest, subjugation, and exploitation (which, alongside straight roads is roughly what the Romans did for us, and we did to all the pink bits on the map).

So, yes, the EU is flawed in the sense that it hasn’t succeeded, and looks a fair way from ever succeeding, in matching a huge population, meaningful democracy, and an ability to act swiftly and decisively when necessary. But, I wouldn’t beat it up for that, because it’s never been done before, unless you count The Federation in Star Trek, which I’ve always assumed to be fictional.

Is the attempt worth the effort, and the inevitable going down blind alleyways en-route? I think so, because populations, that is us ordinary bods all over the place, are subject to huge forces, both natural (climate change specifically) and human-made (corporations that have more reach and clout than nations; expansionist demagogues etc), and we need institutions to represent our interests that are big enough and functional enough to actually achieve things ….. which C18th-style nations aren’t.

Maybe the next referendum should have a question something like:

“Do you wish:

(a) for a bunch of inherently flawed human beings to continue to make stumbling attempts to ensure that the way the world operates takes at least some account of your interests; or,

(b) to give up on all that, and let a different bunch of inherently flawed human beings do whatever they fancy, with no regard to your interests whatsoever?

[DevonDamo]

f you doubt anything that I've just said, then I've got a challenge for you: now we're in the sunlit uplands of Brexit, can you name one bit of red tape that's been removed that has made your life in any way better?

That's nothing to do with Brexit, more a reflection of the poor quality of UK politicians of every party

If you take the example of the invasion of Ukraine there are many examples of EU paralysis. Brexit has nothing to do with this either because the UK would have been free to make its own efforts to help Ukraine as it already has.
A couple of examples:
"First, we did not believe that the war was coming. I have to recognise that here, in Brussels, the Americans were telling us “They will attack, they will attack”, and we were quite reluctant to believe it." (Josep Borrell doesn't recognise that the UK amongst others was also telling Brussels this)
"I think that we have to think more politically. I think that we need to be more proactive, more reactive. We have to make a link between all these problems. We still operate in silos - I can tell you."
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-amba ... borrell_en
One year later...
"BRUSSELS, April 6 2023 (Reuters) - A European Union plan to send 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine is being held up as member states argue over how far spending for the plan will stay within the EU, diplomats and officials said on Thursday."

The EU is massively flawed. Brexit was massively flawed. Politicians are massively flawed. Discuss...

Thanks for answering for @853. My challenge to him was to name a single piece of red tape which has been removed as a result of Brexit and has made his life in any way better. I appreciate your interesting detour on defence policy, however I'm not going to comment on this because, within this discussion, it's a 'look! Squirrel!' moment. The EU is a trading bloc - it's not NATO. Again, I can give you personal experience of how the EU works very well at doing the job that it was actually set up to do:

Whilst I was doing my aforementioned project with the European Commission, George W Bush attempted to impose tariffs on steel imports into the US. The EU sprang into action and, almost overnight, put together a package of retaliatory tariffs on US products. I arrived at one of the Commission buildings that week to find a fleet of limousines outside from the US delegation who'd wasted no time in getting there to negotiate. Within a couple of days, Bush had completely capitulated, cancelling the steel tariffs, despite the fact that he'd instigated this protectionist policy as a vote-winner in the upcoming Presidential elections.

Now compare that position of economic power to our current position of weakness: if the UK wishes to do trade deals with the US, we have no option but to do it on their terms, both in terms of trade terms and safety/quality/welfare/etc. This explains the recent controversy over us having to accept chlorine-washed chicken and other products which will undercut our home producers with substandard products produced on the cheap - poor hygiene and animal welfare etc.

[Psamathe]

I read it, and it is the pathetic whinge of a Brexit-Fan who now seeks to accuse people who voted ‘remain’ of holding the country back.
...

It does seem a bit strange. supporters of brexit determined the nature and type of Brexit. supporters of brexit have held virtually all significant positions in Government since Brexit determining laws and regulations. etc. Yet when their plans don't create the Elysium they promised they blame everybody except themselves!

Ian

[853]

It does seem a bit strange. supporters of brexit determined the nature and type of Brexit. supporters of brexit have held virtually all significant positions in Government since Brexit determining laws and regulations. etc.

Theresa May???

[Biospace]

There are good points I agree with made on either side of the argument, personally I'm nowhere near as passionate on the whole EU in or out debate as many here appear to be. It's a dangerously divisive argument which could have more of an influence on our success than the politics, remorselessly rekindled - but I'd expect 10 or 15 years of relative instability and strong opinions after such a big move.

I remember being surprised by a lack of intelligent debate leading up to the vote, I don't recall hearing any good arguments for remaining other than borderless travel, or any vision as to how we would proceed once out.

Governmental institutions work for their own interests, the EU is better than many. Our membership helped many English people become less inward-looking and it prompted us to consider and improve our environmental issues far more than we ever had before, including the quality of our food and the involvement of Big Pharma in its farming. It's depressing to witness the British farming lobby begin to roll back some huge improvements in this respect and concerning that price and profit will likely be the short-term considerations given more weight.

On the other hand, anyone who observed the way the Greeks were treated when they needed real help should be a warning. In other peripheral states youth unemployment levels remain frighteningly high at around a third, it has been considerably higher. Perhaps an interest rate which suits Germany and the Benelux nations doesn't always suit all, it's interesting that Sweden and Denmark have chosen to retain their own currencies. For anyone who believes that it's only the UK Parliament which is less than perfect, the level of influence big business levers for itself within Brussels is immense.

Although a lot of the trade problems being experienced are a result of regulatory issues, I've heard of cases of EU-based business (mostly very large ones) treating the UK like a pariah state since Brexit. I bought a bicycle from a restoration workshop last year and got chatting, they relied on a German multinational for spare parts for its older products which stopped supplies after Brexit. After an awkward few months when he'd sourced via similar businesses in Australia and the US, he took a German-speaking friend on a short trip into Euroland and found workshops similar to his own which were very pleased to help, apparently embarrassed at how other were behaving.

The referendum was clearly going to be highly divisive in the same way our entry into the Common Market in the 1970s no doubt was, when the public were only consulted once we had decided to join. Given that many of our institutions of power were secondary to Brussels, it might have made sense to inform and open up public debate as what had been a group of trading nations changed into something very different.

[francovendee]

The Greek situation was a mix of too easy borrowing and a government unwilling to chase the unpaid taxes by the rich. When the supply of money was cut off and Greece looked likely to collapse the EU offered help but only if reforms were put into place. At the time loud rumblings of a Grexit were heard. The mistake was the EU didn't act sooner but each member country has to be relied on being responsible so I can see their reluctance.
As my Greek friend tells me, today the rich are still very rich and the poor very poor, it's the people on middle incomes that have fared the worst.
They should never have joined the Euro in 2002 and kept the Drachma, if they had then borrowing wouldn't have gotten out of hand.

[tim-b]

snip...within this discussion, it's a 'look! Squirrel!' moment. The EU is a trading bloc - it's not NATO.

The supply of ammunition isn't anything to do with NATO, it's a decision made by individual countries and an EU commitment to use their funds as well. There is a war raging on a border with the EU where a prospective EU member has been invaded, thousands of war crimes committed, including genocide,and you call that a 'look! Squirrel!' moment. Hmmm, okay

[tim-b]

snip...George W Bush attempted to impose tariffs on steel imports into the US. The EU sprang into action and, almost overnight, put together a package of retaliatory tariffs on US products. I arrived at one of the Commission buildings that week to find a fleet of limousines outside from the US delegation who'd wasted no time in getting there to negotiate. Within a couple of days, Bush had completely capitulated...

An interesting timeline in the BBC coverage on 4th December 2003..."The decision follows a World Trade Organisation decision that the duties, imposed in March 2002, are illegal.
Mr Bush had justified them by saying foreign steel firms were driving US firms out of business with unfair competition and government subsidies.
The European Union announced that its sanctions, to be imposed against the US and worth $2.2bn, will be dropped."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3291537.stm

What seems to have happened is that the WTO declared the duties illegal, Bush acknowledged their declaration and then the EU dropped its sanctions
EDIT for clarity: George W Bush dropped tariffs on 4th December 2003, almost 2 years after imposing them in March 2002, hardly "almost overnight"

[tim-b]

This explains the recent controversy over us having to accept chlorine-washed chicken and other products which will undercut our home producers with substandard products produced on the cheap - poor hygiene and animal welfare etc

"The level of pathogens on poultry carcasses may be controlled by applying an integrated control strategy throughout the entire food chain. Provided this strategy has been followed, decontamination can constitute a useful element in further reducing the number of pathogens."
"The toxicological risk for the consumer of poultry decontaminated with either chlorine dioxide, or acidified sodium chlorite, or peroxyacids, or trisodium phosphate, resulting from residues of these agents, is negligible" European Commission paper Opinion Of The Scientific Committee On Veterinary Measures Relating To Public Health On The Evaluation Of Antimicrobial Treatments For Poultry Carcasses

Why is the US-produced chicken a sub-standard product?

"The government is now looking at imposing a dual-tariff system that would impose different levels of duty on imported foods – dependent on whether they complied with UK animal welfare and food manufacturing standards."
"According to a report from the Adam Smith Institute (which argues in favour of allowing PRTs), “immersing poultry meat in chlorine dioxide solution of the strength used in the United States reduces prevalence of salmonella from 14% in controls to 2%. EU chicken samples typically have 15-20% salmonella.” The Grocer 12/6/2020

The UK is roughly two-thirds self-sufficient in poultry (NFU), we have to import poultry, and "In 1984, the UK’s overall food self-sufficiency was 78%. In 2021, it is 60%. It becomes more and more challenging to be global leaders in climate-friendly food if we allow our own production levels to drop." https://www.nfuonline.com/updates-and-i ... cy-levels/

In the face of these figures, EU membership from 1984 helped us how, exactly?

[tim-b]

And finally...
On 25th March the EU has reversed its ban on new combustion-engined cars. From 2035 vehicles running on eFuels will continue to be produced. An eFuel is chemically the same as conventional fuel and can replace petrol and diesel in older engines without modification

Post-Brexit UK hasn't agreed to a similar planet-threatening change

[francovendee]

I understand e-fuel is carbon neutral.
I suspect emissions are the same.
France is also reluctant with the change.

[pete75]

f you doubt anything that I've just said, then I've got a challenge for you: now we're in the sunlit uplands of Brexit, can you name one bit of red tape that's been removed that has made your life in any way better?

That's nothing to do with Brexit, more a reflection of the poor quality of UK politicians of every party

If you take the example of the invasion of Ukraine there are many examples of EU paralysis. Brexit has nothing to do with this either because the UK would have been free to make its own efforts to help Ukraine as it already has.
A couple of examples:
"First, we did not believe that the war was coming. I have to recognise that here, in Brussels, the Americans were telling us “They will attack, they will attack”, and we were quite reluctant to believe it." (Josep Borrell doesn't recognise that the UK amongst others was also telling Brussels this)
"I think that we have to think more politically. I think that we need to be more proactive, more reactive. We have to make a link between all these problems. We still operate in silos - I can tell you."
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-amba ... borrell_en
One year later...
"BRUSSELS, April 6 2023 (Reuters) - A European Union plan to send 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine is being held up as member states argue over how far spending for the plan will stay within the EU, diplomats and officials said on Thursday."

The EU is massively flawed. Brexit was massively flawed. Politicians are massively flawed. Discuss...

You're missing a major point, the EU is not yet a military alliance. The relevant organisation is NATO. Most EU nations are members as is the UK. If you think the military response is lacking blame NATO.

[pete75]

And finally...
On 25th March the EU has reversed its ban on new combustion-engined cars. From 2035 vehicles running on eFuels will continue to be produced. An eFuel is chemically the same as conventional fuel and can replace petrol and diesel in older engines without modification

Post-Brexit UK hasn't agreed to a similar planet-threatening change

Yes but it's something your Mr Farage would support. "Net Zero is net Stupid" he says, an dhe's starting a new camapaign to oppose it https://www.politico.eu/article/britain ... -playbook/.

[tim-b]

You're missing a major point, the EU is not yet a military alliance. The relevant organisation is NATO. Most EU nations are members as is the UK. If you think the military response is lacking blame NATO

NATO has absolutely nothing to do with the war in Ukraine. It exists as a western treaty-based alliance, as is the EU
It exists to support its members, as does the EU, and Ukraine isn't a member of either.

International law allows countries and the EU to provide defensive supplies to Ukraine. Certain countries and the EU have pledged to provide aid to Ukraine, why would anyone blame NATO for a row within the EU?

[tim-b]

Yes but it's something your Mr Farage would support. "Net Zero is net Stupid" he says, an dhe's starting a new camapaign to oppose it

My Mr. Farage?
Why would you assume that I support Mr Farage, I made my position clear on the last page.

You might also be interested to know that the carbon-neutral status of eFuels is in doubt and it's consequently an appalling decision by the EU https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/05/sy ... esnt-work/