Do we really understand what’s happening to the cycle trade?

[PH]

Whilst I appreciate the time it's taken in my correction - the net result is still the same, shimano have a drop in sales, due to a business model based primarily on selling their products to manufacturers.

A drop from 2020 and 2021, is still higher than in any other year. They're doing better now, than if there'd been no pandemic and their sales had followed the path of the preceding ten years. Any theory about why Shimano are doing badly ought to start with establishing that they are, the accounts say not, that's why the dividend has doubled in the last four years.

[cycle tramp]

..ages and ages ago... this thread was started, it was suggested that cycling product sales right now , was experiencing a slump... and used shimano's own statement as part of the over arching evidence....
...if you are now suggesting that shimano's fall in sales were artificially caused because covid caused the cycle industry two 'bumper' years, which meant when things returned to normal there would 'appear' to be a slump in sales, when in actuality there would not have been, [if covid had not occurred]- then that's all to the good
Perhaps as a share holder you would be kind enough to ask them to increase their charitable donations to cycle path building or assisting sustrans in finishing off a few routes in Britain..

[rareposter]

...if you are now suggesting that shimano's fall in sales were artificially caused because covid caused the cycle industry two 'bumper' years, which meant when things returned to normal there would 'appear' to be a slump in sales, when in actuality there would not have been, [if covid had not occurred]- then that's all to the good

Way back (top of Page 12), I explained that the cycle industry is working about 2 years in advance - so the stock that was in the shops at the time Covid hit in early 2020 (in the UK, earlier in China) was planned and designed from 2017 with facilities (like molds etc) being set up in factories, order sheets sent to Shimano / SRAM - "we will need 200,000 Ultegra groupsets for [date]" and all that comes together to have bikes built in late 2018, shipped throughout 2019 for delivery to the distributors and then the bike shops in late 2019 / early 2020.

This is particularly important to understand how new models work - that top end road bike that has just landed for example will have been timed - along with groupset manufacturers, let's say SRAM who have just released the new SRAM Red - for everything to come together in April for delivery to the top teams who'll be using that new bike at the Tour de France, publicity launch at the Tour and stock needs to be available in the shops at that point for the well-healed punters to go "I saw [famous rider] on that bike, it looked really cool, I want one". TdF is a significant driver in road bike sales.

Shops and regional dealer networks have a pretty solid idea of what will sell and when (again, tied into new product launches) so they know how much to order so in 2018/19, dealer networks will have taken their orders from shops, ordered the products from the manufacturer and awaited delivery (which is normally in phases). So far, so good.

Covid hit - people can't do anything, can't go anywhere, about the one activity that's still available is cycling plus there's nothing on the roads plus it's great weather! Perfect storm of circumstances for everyone to go running to a bike shop and buy what they have which rapidly overwhelms the stock. No-one can get any more stock cos all the factories are hut down and no-one is sitting on a spare 2000 bikes - the industry cannot afford or justify that amount of slack in the system.

Shops are phoning every dealer they can think of to get parts and - this is where it did all go wrong - distributors are receiving multiple phone calls asking for the same thing. Customer has gone to Shop 1 - can you get [product]?. Shop A phones dealer - have you got any [product], PLEASE?. Nope.
Customer goes to Shop 2, 3 and 4 process repeats.
Dealer meanwhile has received 4 phone calls asking for [product] and thinks "I need to order 4x [product] from manufacturer". Genuinely, very few people realised that the demand might be a quarter of what it seemed to be. It was not 4 orders for [product], it was one order, repeated 4x. So they order 4x [product] and meanwhile as factories etc fire up again after Covid, the prices for materials are now through the roof cos of delays and increased demand (which carries through the market to end bike prices, to customers), everyone starts cranking out the products again and then the industry collectively discovered that those 4 orders were actually one. And even that one the customer might have got bored and either not bought, bought something else entirely or no longer wants to buy cos, OMG have you SEEN the prices now?!

Result - massive stock overload. (that was 2022/23) and associated massive discounting.
Result now - hugely slackened demand for parts while the excess stock works its way through the market which means relative slump in sales because those manufacturers are no longer ordering 200,000 Ultegra groupsets, they're now ordering 80,000 because the demand and expected projection in sales is much lower. The industry - having gone from a period of relative control where they knew (to within a few %) what would sell and when - now has much less idea. They don't want to overstock - that's a huge amount of wasted time, effort and money - but understocking is going to cause more issues further down the line.

It's not an easy market by any means at the moment.

[Bmblbzzz]

As a result of this view, a percentage of Shimano parts sales, are going to people who have worn out 'whatever' part and just want to replace it, without needing to buy a new bike.
None of us know what that percentage is, it might be 0.5% or even 0.05%, but it's still a contribution towards the whole.

We don't know what that percentage is, but Shimano do. As do Sram, Campag etc for their sales. In fact, we might find it out as well, if they've published it in their annual results or disclosed it to analysts etc

[cc1085]

The bicycle is a brilliant machine and can last a lifetime and be passed through the generations, which is not good for a bicycle manufacturer. The reason for gravel bikes, mountain bikes hybrids fat bikes etc is to sell more bikes than is needed to an individual. All these bikes are basically the same and still have Starley's diamond frame since 1885. Recumbent bikes are far superior in some aspects but for everyday, go anywhere versatility, the original design still hasn't been beaten, even with the advent of e-bikes. Now tell me how you actually need (as opposed to want) more than one bike for anything. What is the one bike that can do it all? What's yours? Omafiets?

[rareposter]

Now tell me how you actually need (as opposed to want) more than one bike for anything. What is the one bike that can do it all? What's yours? Omafiets?

Not sure a road bike would be much good on a mountain bike trail.
Mountain bikes aren't suitable for a road race.
You watching any of the Olympic track cycling? Those track bikes are specifically built for going round and round an indoor velodrome, they'd be fairly useless as (eg) a touring bike.

Probably the most capable all-round bike I have is my gravel bike - ironically the genre / niche that has done a fair bit to bolster the bike industry in recent years. The other niche being e-bikes which is definitely a growing sector.

[cc1085]

Now tell me how you actually need (as opposed to want) more than one bike for anything. What is the one bike that can do it all? What's yours? Omafiets?

Original mountain bikes were road bikes for everyday use and the same with all the others. When you say "road bike" I presume you mean one with drop bars no mudguards etc ,same as a drop bar mountain bike,drop bar gravel bike and not an actual upright road bike for daily transport to work, shopping, touring/travel, which can, by the way, be easily converted in to any of the others, might not be as competitive but can be done. My late father raced on road and track on the same bicycle in the 50's

Not sure a road bike would be much good on a mountain bike trail.
Mountain bikes aren't suitable for a road race.
You watching any of the Olympic track cycling? Those track bikes are specifically built for going round and round an indoor velodrome, they'd be fairly useless as (eg) a touring bike.

Probably the most capable all-round bike I have is my gravel bike - ironically the genre / niche that has done a fair bit to bolster the bike industry in recent years. The other niche being e-bikes which is definitely a growing sector.

[Cowsham]

Now tell me how you actually need (as opposed to want) more than one bike for anything. What is the one bike that can do it all? What's yours? Omafiets?

Not sure a road bike would be much good on a mountain bike trail.
Mountain bikes aren't suitable for a road race.
You watching any of the Olympic track cycling? Those track bikes are specifically built for going round and round an indoor velodrome, they'd be fairly useless as (eg) a touring bike.

I found out this year the hard way what I thought would make a great touring bike --- wasn't.

My Pinnacle R2 is a brilliant commuter but not the bike I'd take on a big tour.

[Cowsham]

Met a French cyclist in Coleraine last Thursday. He's on a tour round Ireland and on to Scotland. I quizzed him about his bike. It's an old 90's ridged fork mountain bike with lower climbing gears and touring style handlebars. Maybe some other modifications and newer running gear. Racks panniers etc. Does the job perfectly. Was his winter project -- who needs a surly ?

[mattheus]

Now tell me how you actually need (as opposed to want) more than one bike for anything. What is the one bike that can do it all? What's yours? Omafiets?

Not sure a road bike would be much good on a mountain bike trail.
Mountain bikes aren't suitable for a road race.
You watching any of the Olympic track cycling? Those track bikes are specifically built for going round and round an indoor velodrome, they'd be fairly useless as (eg) a touring bike.

Probably the most capable all-round bike I have is my gravel bike - ironically the genre / niche that has done a fair bit to bolster the bike industry in recent years. The other niche being e-bikes which is definitely a growing sector.

What %age of cyclists participate in track-racing or road-races?
Specialisation of competition bikes may not be a great thing for accessibility, but it really has negligible impact on the vaaaast majority of cyclists (unless they choose to be influenced by it!)

[pete75]

Now tell me how you actually need (as opposed to want) more than one bike for anything. What is the one bike that can do it all? What's yours? Omafiets?

Not sure a road bike would be much good on a mountain bike trail.
Mountain bikes aren't suitable for a road race.
You watching any of the Olympic track cycling? Those track bikes are specifically built for going round and round an indoor velodrome, they'd be fairly useless as (eg) a touring bike.

Probably the most capable all-round bike I have is my gravel bike - ironically the genre / niche that has done a fair bit to bolster the bike industry in recent years. The other niche being e-bikes which is definitely a growing sector.

What can you do ona gravel bike that you can't do on an ordinary touring bike? Do a web search for RSF images. The bottom picture shows a touring bike being used as a real mountain bike.

[PH]

What can you do ona gravel bike that you can't do on an ordinary touring bike? Do a web search for RSF images.

Quite often you can ride them on the same sort of terrain that the RSF images show people pushing bikes up.

[peetee]

What can you do ona gravel bike that you can't do on an ordinary touring bike? Do a web search for RSF images.

Quite often you can ride them on the same sort of terrain that the RSF images show people pushing bikes up.

It depends a lot on your capabilities and confidence. I ride my knobbly 30c tyred touring bike on routes that my partner, with a 2” tyred gravel bike, will walk down. I will add that I wasn’t getting that far ahead of her on some downhill sections. I wasn’t in a hurry and knew the bike wouldn’t take the punishment of a ‘brakes off & hang on’ charge. It was more about staying chilled, picking my line and enjoying the challenge.

[cycle tramp]

What can you do ona gravel bike that you can't do on an ordinary touring bike? Do a web search for RSF images.

Quite often you can ride them on the same sort of terrain that the RSF images show people pushing bikes up.

Well.... I'm with Pete75 on this one - part of its down to ability... I'll generally fall off on any piece of off road which is even mildly technical.. even if I'm using 26" x 2.3 wide tyres... and whilst the rough stuff fellowship has a large number of photographs featuring, quite frankly very heroic (verging on suicidal) people with bicycles.. often the inverse is true when you look at photographs from the websites radavist and bike packing which feature happy people riding very capable bikes on wide smooth crushed gravel roads...

[Nearholmer]

Earwigo again

To answer the question one has to assume the same degree of competence, bravado, and fitness in the rider of the two bikes, then define two otherwise undefined terms, which I will have a bash at as follows for these purposes (and ONLY for these purposes):

Ordinary touring bike: 32-35mm tubed touring tyres; mechanical rim brakes; wide range 3x gearing.

Gravel bike: c40mm tubeless tyres; hydraulic disc brakes; wide range 1x gearing.

I’ll assume geometry is the same, although it may well not be, and I’ll assume that the frame materials, wheels, overall weight etc are the same, which is a bit unlikely, but ……

Given those assumptions, the answer is that the gravel bike will allow our standard rider to go quicker over the sorts of courses that arise in gravel bike racing. That’s what it’s optimised to do, in the same way that the tourer is optimised for load lugging, and for somewhat “off grid” use. That’s why people use gravel bikes, not read tourers, in gravel bike races: it helps them to win.

Now, we all know that (a) many race-optimised gravel bikes aren’t used for gravel racing, and that (b) the term ‘gravel bike’ is used more loosely to encompass all sorts of bikes that work well across the range of conditions that can’t sensibly be ridden on a modern “road bike”, but don’t quite necessitate a modern MTB, so those facts can be thrown into the mix too.

Quite why this wizened old chestnut keeps being tabled, goodness only knows, but what I do know is that having ridden both a full-on trad tourer, and a bike much closer to the typical modern gravel bike, both off-road, the latter is way more suitable, and way more enjoyable. In fact the trad tourer only lasted “five minutes” with me, because it wasn’t much joy off-road, it worked, but it was like walking in shoes half a size too big: subtly, but noticeably, sub-optimal. Both are incredibly versatile bike formats, and their form and capabilities overlap to such an extent that it doesn’t take many alterations to turn one into into very nearly the other (my current ones are right at the light tourer - gravel bike interface, but couldn’t quite hack it as either a heavy tourer or a gravel racer. That seems to be the personal sweet-spot for the way I use bikes).

Just learn to live with ambiguity, gradations, loosely-applied terminology, the fact that technology changes over time, that every generation thinks it invented sex, and all the other difficulties presented by the march of time.

PS: from a saleability viewpoint, which I guess is relevant to this thread, a “gravel bike” is about a zillion times better than an “ordinary tourer”, because oodles of people have the time and inclination to do a bit of light off-roading, be that be solo, in sportive-type events, or actual racing, whereas these days very, very few people have the time and inclination to go touring, even for a week or two at a time, let alone months at a time. You can sell lots of gravel bikes for every one tourer.