2.8 million people in the UK on long-term sick

[Nearholmer]

Different diseases, different effects, but here is a snippet about the long shadow of the 1918-20 ‘flu pandemic:

“But beyond the high death toll, the full impact of the 1918–1919 pandemic wouldn’t be realized until more than 60 years later. In 2009, Finch and Crimmins published a study examining epidemiological data on individuals born in 1919, who were newborns or second- or third-trimester fetuses during the height of the pandemic. The data revealed that these individuals had approximately 25% more heart disease after age 60, as well as increased diabetes risk, compared to a similar cohort of individuals not born in 1919, including those who were older infants during the pandemic.”

That pandemic is also ‘credited’ with causing an upsurge in Parkinson’s Disease, and it also left some sufferers with “Long Flu”.

So, maybe we have to be very patient to discover the long-term impacts of Covid and of lockdowns.

[531colin]

ANalysis here (not sure if this is exactly the same dataset)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... 2019to2023



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Out of curiosity, I clicked the link.
It told me;

36% of working age people "self-report" that they have at least one long-term health condition (It isn't clear to me if these are the same "economically inactive" 2.8 million people)

Long term sick economically inactive people, 38% report five or more health conditions.

53% of long term sick non-working people report depression, anxiety or bad nerves, most report it as a secondary health condition rather than their main one.

Among long term sick non-working people reporting a musculo-skeletal condition as their main long term health condition, 70% report more than one musculo-skeletal condition.

So, the penny dropped that the bar chart shows the reported incidence of conditions, so that any one person can appear multiple times.

Its a very odd business. How do you get 5 "health conditions"? Or multiple musculo-skeletal conditions? The GP will only consider one ailment per appointment, but I guess if you "self report" you can say whatever you like?

Why would you make a bar chart showing incidence of conditions rather than just showing the person once with their "main" condition?

At a time when lots of people are generally better off for material things than at any time in the past, and most households contain a number of "toys" for adults (vehicles, television, "social media", X box gaming things) a significant minority of people seem determined to consider themselves to be very unwell.

[Nearholmer]

Why would you make a bar chart showing incidence of conditions rather than just showing the person once with their "main" condition?

One possible reason that strikes me is that if you are trying to plan treatment capacity, it’s necessary to know how many patients might need to be treated in each specialist area.

To some degree, illness begets illness, so that for instance if a person has a bad back, constantly nagged by pain, which isn’t treated for donkeys years because the health service is first shut-down, then overburdened, then on strike, that person will pretty swiftly fall into isolation, bad mental health, then into further problems exacerbated by lack of exercise. And then their spouse will crumble under it and succumb to poor mental health too.

Something that I do wonder about is whether “the bad news tsunami” contributes to all this in a subtle way: pandemic; cost of living crisis; wars; climate crisis. It’s the sort of stuff that sandpapers down people’s willpower, so that conditions that they might “soldier on” with in a generally positive time become harder to bear. Add that to a very ‘driven’ work culture in many places, and it could be the thing that tips people over into feeling too unwell to work.

[roubaixtuesday]

...a significant minority of people seem determined to consider themselves to be very unwell.

Mind reading a personal speciality?

[531colin]

...a significant minority of people seem determined to consider themselves to be very unwell.

Mind reading a personal speciality?

FIVE or more chronic conditions in somebody of working age.
According to 38% of non-economically active people.
I don’t know anybody that ill.

[531colin]

I think continuous bad news on the TV could contribute to depression, particularly if you were confined to a depressing flat with an abusive partner during lockdown.

To predict future capacity for treatment you need to take account of the whole population not just economically inactive adults.

A bad back could lead to social isolation I guess, but for me it’s always lead to rehabilitation. What do you do when you get injured?

[Nearholmer]

It’s worth reading the entire report https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... conditions

One ‘stand out’ from it is that 33% of those “off long term sick” are waiting for NHS treatment for their conditions(s).

As for rehabilitation: it can take time. My other half was off work for over a year while she was receiving treatment for cancer, so must have been in these numbers at the time. And, some conditions just don’t ever seem to go away, even with treatment, arthritis being one (my sister in law has had it badly since she was c30.yo, and if she couldn’t work largely from home, I doubt she could work).

[Carlton green]

This thread led me to think of my long ‘past’ father. Dad was born before the NHS existed, he had a pretty appalling childhood and his early adult life wasn’t great either. The results left his health in tatters and - whilst obviously constrained - I’m amazed by what he did manage to achieve in his life, what’s clear to me is that lack of health care and lack of social care holds people back, destroys lives and destroys societies. I know of so many people, individuals, who are out of the workforce due to lack of corrective health interventions. Underfunding the NHS might be a short term saving but the results are a long term cost to individuals and the nation; cure the sick, get them back to work (supporting themselves and the economy) and relieve their caregivers.

On social care the issues are there too but so multifaceted. One clear winner though is in the provision of affordable child care. As a parent and grandparent I see what a positive and lifelong difference it can make to children and parents. Society benefits too and, believe it or not, so does the economy. Such things as good health care and good social care shouldn’t be seen as costs but rather as calculated investments in the future wealth of the country.

[Pinhead]

The latest figures show 2.8 million people in the UK on long-term sick and unable to work. I presume the figure excludes the rich (who don't need to work), pensioners (over 67),

The retirement age to date is 66 not 67

November 2018, and brought forward the increase in State Pension age to 66

Has nothing to do with cycling yor you could say did it all begin when cycling and the bike was invented! and people stopped walking ROFL:

I am 67, and am 100% perfect health, fit, according to the doctor last month.

[mattheus]

Am I the only one that finds this number both sad and shocking?

Struggling to find this as an actual %age of working-age Brits, but it does seem an enormous fraction. I only know one woman (30ish?) in this position (due to some form of Long Covid), and this proportion is clearly waaaaaay below the average figure.
These people must be mostly invisible to me - which makes me feel even more sad.

I imagine some members here will have a much higher figure in mind - either because they ARE on long-term sick, or they work in healthcare, or they are a carer. :- (

[Nearholmer]

HMG says:

“according to the 2021 Census, 62.9% (37.5 million) of the population of England and Wales was of working age (aged 16 to 64 years)”

So, 2.8M equates to c7.5% of that group.

If you want to become even more downcast by it, the number of people at work, but with “work limiting conditions” has also risen sharply over the same time span. Although “the usual suspects” like bad backs and heart conditions are in that, the biggest rise has been among young people with stress-depression limiting what they can do/achieve at work. And of course, it impacts unequally, with the least well-off parts of the UK, and the least well-off people, having worse health at the start, and having experienced the largest worsening.

[mattheus]

HMG says:

“according to the 2021 Census, 62.9% (37.5 million) of the population of England and Wales was of working age (aged 16 to 64 years)”

So, 2.8M equates to c7.5% of that group.

Thanks.

7.5%. 1-in-13. Sobering ...

[Carlton green]

Am I the only one that finds this number both sad and shocking?

Struggling to find this as an actual %age of working-age Brits, but it does seem an enormous fraction. I only know one woman (30ish?) in this position (due to some form of Long Covid), and this proportion is clearly waaaaaay below the average figure.
These people must be mostly invisible to me - which makes me feel even more sad.

I imagine some members here will have a much higher figure in mind - either because they ARE on long-term sick, or they work in healthcare, or they are a carer. :- (

Some of such people will be hidden from me too however I either know or know of significant numbers of these long term sick. How so? Well I’ve lived in my community for many years and it is my habit to be quietly friendly and outgoing to the folk that I meet on the street. Having a dog I do much walking of my local streets, parks, footpaths and the countryside in general so I come in contact with and then chat to a lot of people.

Today I saw a friend who has sudden seizures - I’ve seen one - and yesterday I talked to a friend of decades who has two middle-aged children with mental health issue preventing them from work. Earlier in the week I met another parent whose (limited ability) son has worked for the same company for over two decades, the company are closing and he’ll really struggle with the change - probably end up on the sick with mental illness. One of my neighbours had a stroke and is wheel chair bound, mentally she’s mostly there but lost her specialist professional skills, she’s existing … another neighbour picked up a bug, is wheelchair bound and lost her business. The list of misery is endless and all those people would be helped by better healthcare that enabled them to make more of their lives, some perhaps returning to the workforce, and potentially need less help from those around them.

[Biospace]

...
Something that I do wonder about is whether “the bad news tsunami” contributes to all this in a subtle way: pandemic; cost of living crisis; wars; climate crisis. It’s the sort of stuff that sandpapers down people’s willpower, so that conditions that they might “soldier on” with in a generally positive time become harder to bear...

Since the Covid panic was rolled out, most have been bombarded with a succession of assaults on their well-being. Initially children and adults were removed from their education and work places, threatened by the State agencies into remaining isolated and indoors while being paid by the State, fear was (deliberately) ramped up and media were carefully controlled.

The follow up of Europe at war, then the sustained wave of high levels of excess deaths, chronic disease and disability as Covid infections dwindled to low numbers, together with double figure inflation levels has completed a four year period which forms a remarkable set of events, almost stranger than fiction.

There are some very clear routes out of the mess into which the Western world has descended, yet presently most politicians appear to be in a form of denial of the severity of the situation and that a little help here, a slight change in policy there will see us sorted out. An emergency 25 year plan wouldn't look too out of place.

[mjr]

...a significant minority of people seem determined to consider themselves to be very unwell.

Mind reading a personal speciality?

FIVE or more chronic conditions in somebody of working age.
According to 38% of non-economically active people.
I don’t know anybody that ill.

As far as you're aware. Have you asked them all? About half of mine aren't obvious to look at, because they're either invisible or concealed by treatment.

Also, acknowledging that I have these chronic illnesses does not make me "determined to consider themselves to be very unwell" IMO. Some of them have made me very unwell for periods of time, but not all and not all time. It's been rare that any has stopped me working.