ebikes of today 10 years on

[francovendee]

I wonder if a large number of ebikes will end up at the tip.
The mechanics on the bike may be fine but the battery has died. The ability and cost to obtain a new battery would, many times over, be more than the value of the bike.
Unless there is an economic way to replace a battery I fear many good bikes will end up in the dump.
Am I wrong in thinking this way?

[tenbikes]

I think you are right.

That's why I both my e bikes are Bafang mid drive conversio ns. Repairabl e, replaceable, and can de - convert back to a standard bike.

[Nearholmer]

Things like that tend to trickle down the secondhand market to people who are willing/able to cobble something together using whatever battery they can get new at a good price, plus a bit of ingenuity, and a lot of duct tape. Not all of them, but a good few.

I’m also imagining g a new motorsport emerging, using hub-motor bike wheels, possibly even entire front forks with suspensions, built onto 4WD go-carts, with bought-in batteries, which could then be belted around muddy fields.

[Jdsk]

Good question. I'm expecting a very mixed picture... as with bikes without batteries.

The rest of this is about any battery replacement, rather than specifically 10 years or longer.

There will be some standardisation of batteries, but it won't be enormous.

At the bottom end we'll either see tighter trading standards or even more fires. There's a suggestion of better regulation in the new UK's government programme of legislation. And we might see a code of conduct in the local delivery world.

At the high end replacement of batteries will become routine. I suspect that it will come from specialists rather than through traditional independent bike shops. Halfords might take it on but only if there's a fair bit of commoditisation and standardisation. Mobile and workplace fitters look likely.

And that mixed picture will include lots of eBikes sitting unloved in sheds and dumps, as with other types of bikes. Dumps will recycle the constituents of batteries and motors, and that will be in the setting of much more recycling of BEVs.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

...
The mechanics on the bike may be fine but the battery has died. The ability and cost to obtain a new battery would, many times over, be more than the value of the bike.
...

With an up and running replacement system the comparator will often be the cost of a new eBike.

Jonathan

[PH]

I think the degradation of batteries is a much overestimated thing. Most of the estimates are that capacity will be reduced to 80% at 500 cycles and 50% at 1,000. If you buy a decent bike with a good BMS, look after it and at an average of 50* miles per cycle that'll be reduced to 40 miles after 25,000 and 25 miles after 50,000. That's based on a 500WH battery, 700Wh are pretty common now, that would make the mileage 70 new, 56 miles after 35,000 and 35 miles after 70,000. If you're a high mileage user, you could add about 20% to the bikes purchase price and get a second battery, use them in rotation and double the mileage.
Is this really something people worry about?

* Your usage might be anything from 30 to 80 miles, adjust the figures accordingly.

[roubaixtuesday]

What's it like in Germany? They're maybe 10 years ahead of us in ebike takeup.

(Of course, Germany is miles better on recycling all round)

[Jdsk]

What's it like in Germany? They're maybe 10 years ahead of us in ebike takeup.
...

On the Rhine trip in 2019 we saw a large number of expensive mid-drive sit-up eBikes.

Jonathan

[Jdsk]

What's it like in Germany? They're maybe 10 years ahead of us in ebike takeup.

(Of course, Germany is miles better on recycling all round)

Yes, I'm expecting the recycling standards to be German/EU. As with plastics in cars.

Jonathan

[roubaixtuesday]

What's it like in Germany? They're maybe 10 years ahead of us in ebike takeup.
...

On the Rhine trip in 2019 we saw a large number of expensive mid-drive sit-up eBikes.

Jonathan

Yes, we saw tons back in about 2017 when we went to the Black Forest. My question was more, "has this been an issue in Germany", just because, to my uninformed impression, they were about 10 years ahead of us in takeup.

[Jdsk]

What's it like in Germany? They're maybe 10 years ahead of us in ebike takeup.
...

On the Rhine trip in 2019 we saw a large number of expensive mid-drive sit-up eBikes.

Yes, we saw tons back in about 2017 when we went to the Black Forest. My question was more, "has this been an issue in Germany", just because, to my uninformed impression, they were about 10 years ahead of us in takeup.

I don't know... but we have a correspondent in Germany...

I'd expect that subgroup of eBike users to replace batteries if needed and to recycle.

Jonathan

[peterb]

My Orbea gain is over 6 years old. Under 4 years to go - I'll let you know.

[PH]

Yes, we saw tons back in about 2017 when we went to the Black Forest. My question was more, "has this been an issue in Germany", just because, to my uninformed impression, they were about 10 years ahead of us in takeup.

A good number of the quality bikes back then would have been using Bosch Powerbacks, most likely 400Wh, those are still in production and cost around £550. If the rest of the bike is serviceable, the cost of the battery isn't prohibitive. But whether many people would want to invest that much in an old bike is questionable. The motor will have a lot of miles, the rest of the components will be worn and maybe more importantly to the buyer the technology has moved on.
I think it's a bit of a red herring, I know people like to big up the environmental aspects, but things don't have to last forever to have been worthwhile. if someone gets 30,000 miles from an E-bike, then reuses and recycles what they can, that is IMO a very acceptable use of resources. I know, people will tell us that non assisted bikes can last forever, but can and do are different things and we only see a tiny fraction of the bikes produced twenty years ago still in use.

[stodd]

Our 8 or 9 year old Motus Bosch battery (we bought the bike 2nd hand 6 years ago so not sure of exact age) was starting to show signs of reduced range.
Replacements batteries are getting more difficult to source, so when I saw a good price at Merlin I replaced it.
Original 400wh was replaced with new 500wh £349; as new 400wh at £339 didn't seem sensible.
https://www.merlincycles.com/search?w=bosch+battery

I now hope that the bike will last another 10 years; it will be far from 'modern' by then but still hopefully doing what we need it to do.

[Cugel]

I think the degradation of batteries is a much overestimated thing. Most of the estimates are that capacity will be reduced to 80% at 500 cycles and 50% at 1,000. If you buy a decent bike with a good BMS, look after it and at an average of 50* miles per cycle that'll be reduced to 40 miles after 25,000 and 25 miles after 50,000. That's based on a 500WH battery, 700Wh are pretty common now, that would make the mileage 70 new, 56 miles after 35,000 and 35 miles after 70,000. If you're a high mileage user, you could add about 20% to the bikes purchase price and get a second battery, use them in rotation and double the mileage.
Is this really something people worry about?

* Your usage might be anything from 30 to 80 miles, adjust the figures accordingly.
*******************************
A good number of the quality bikes back then would have been using Bosch Powerbacks, most likely 400Wh, those are still in production and cost around £550. If the rest of the bike is serviceable, the cost of the battery isn't prohibitive. But whether many people would want to invest that much in an old bike is questionable. The motor will have a lot of miles, the rest of the components will be worn and maybe more importantly to the buyer the technology has moved on.
I think it's a bit of a red herring, I know people like to big up the environmental aspects, but things don't have to last forever to have been worthwhile. if someone gets 30,000 miles from an E-bike, then reuses and recycles what they can, that is IMO a very acceptable use of resources. I know, people will tell us that non assisted bikes can last forever, but can and do are different things and we only see a tiny fraction of the bikes produced twenty years ago still in use.

All the above seems a cogent and realistic estimation of the issues around the longevity of e-bikes. Fundamentally, if you look after them and make an effort to replace worn parts, they can be made to last a very long time, just like ordinary bikes. Batteries do last a long time if looked after; and even now most can be re-celled, although the infrastructure for getting that done is in its infancy. It won't be in even 3 years time, as batteries become ubiquitous in all forms of transport.

The problem is, as with everything else, the production of junk e-bikes. These tend to break down rapidly, be badly made and difficult to recycle or mend. The solution to that is to prevent junk-manufacturing - of any and everything.

Oh - and to stop consuming the junk stuff. "A bargain" often isn't.