Do you trust AI?

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ChrisF
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Do you trust AI?

Post by ChrisF »

I wanted to see how much of the energy stored in my ebike battery was used to accelerate the extra weight (of battery and motor) from a standing start*. So I asked Google
How much energy does it take to accelerate 5kg to 20 kph?
Here's the reply. Please take few moments to look at the numbers.

Image
The first part is OK (I think). But although the theory of KE appears correct, it can't do the calculation: 0.5 x 5 x 30.91 is not 9.66. And, where on earth does the 1.93 Joules headline answer come from?

I thought that the dangers of AI were to do with more complex matters than simple arithmetic.

* Happy to discuss the need for my question elsewhere! On NCN1 riding east out of London , I reckon I had to stop and start an extra 100 times or more because of the poor infrastructure.
Chris F, Cornwall
Nearholmer
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Nearholmer »

I think it’s wrong at the basic physics level too, because what it’s answering is the question “what kinetic energy does a stated mass travelling at a stated velocity posses?”, which isn't what you asked.

It can’t answer the question you did ask, because it doesn’t have a knowledge of the various resistances (opposing forces) to be overcome during acceleration, and it really ought to have told you that. If you think about trying to accelerate a huge, 5kg silk parachute through the air, a 5kg stone pushed up a hill across a bed of sand, a 5kg block of stone on two ice skates across an ice rink, a 5kg model boat pulled on a string across a pond, and any other weird combination you can think of, my point will become clear.
tim-b
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by tim-b »

AI doesn't reason. The language models aggregate internet hits on similar problems. Many of them will be wrong and so AI is wrong

Microsoft is testing its Copilot AI integration with Excel spreadsheets, without accessing external sources, but
The company cautions, however, that Copilot can produce incorrect responses – especially in high-stakes situations – and advises users to carefully review results before relying on them for important decisions. https://www.techspot.com/news/109145-ex ... warns.html
"But when they've notched up 12 U-turns and rising, the only conclusion is serial incompetence." Keir Starmer on Twitter 2/9/2020
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Cugel
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Cugel »

Artificial Intelligence ...... so many issues, not least of which the question: what is intelligence? It isn't really just "what human thinking does". And a lot of human thinking, if that's the ideal AI is aimed at, is not exactly intelligent, eh?

Biological intelligence seems to consist mostly of the ability to learn procedures and retain memories of them enabling survival as well as making the most of an environment via accurate predictions of future states given various conditions. Such intelligence is partly genetic (instinct + biological configurations) but mostly acquired through experience.

An AI can't really have experience ... yet. It's doing logic and perhaps a detailed copy of conclusions reached by experienced biological entities. It can sometimes guess basic imagery or other detailed components of a thing via a guided neural learning process that uses ideal copies to create new information that's like the ideal. Photoshop and other such AI, for example, is getting quite good at mending and scaling degraded imagery in this way; or even creating it from a few prompts.

But AI can't yet have experiences of much itself to learn from. Nor are the motives for learning from experience yet understood and delineated for AIs beyond the very, very specific (such as that Photoshop stuff or guessing what stocks & shares will do).

In short, the "intelligence" aspect of what's currently called AI seems as yet to be very primitive and simplistic - almost a "single-cell" creature.

*************

As to trusting AI .......

Trusting something or someone is to have a justifiable expectation that their future behaviour will follow known patterns, based on a lot of evidence of their past behaviour, in similar future circumstances. AI is too new and variable to have much trust in, since there's insufficient past behaviour to make judgements on. On the other hand, one could perhaps trust that answers given by current AI to more complex questions are likely to be highly flawed because of its immaturity and primitive nature. Not to mention the hidden agendas of those building AI.

Many seem to have faith (faux trust without evidence) that AI can and will be "more intelligent than humans". Faith, though, is only of use as a short term and quick-step towards a true trust, enabling a relationship to be established with something about which evidence building trust can be gathered. Long term faith tends to end up in a religion or ideology divorced form reality, as human history demonstrates. Results are variable. Faith is generally blind. :-)
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Nearholmer
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Nearholmer »

An AI can't really have experience
Isn’t “experience” precisely how neural networks are trained to deal with fuzzy data?

I’d also argue that a very great deal of human knowledge isn't acquired through experience, at least not the experience of the individual possessing the knowledge. People, and other creatures too to a lesser extent, can be taught, so leapfrogging the experience phase, and people can access “extra-somatic learning” (read books, watch films etc).AI can be taught too, and what we are watching is one type of AI making a right cods of trying to access and use extra-somatic learning - it’s like a bright four year old let loose in the British Library currently: it can read all the books, and parrot bits of them, but it hasn’t yet acquired the ability to synthesise factoids into knowledge, and fictionoids into completely wrong-headed beliefs, both of which humans are brilliant at.
Last edited by Nearholmer on 26 Aug 2025, 8:35am, edited 2 times in total.
Jdsk
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Jdsk »

Nearholmer wrote: 26 Aug 2025, 8:24am
An AI can't really have experience
Isn’t “experience” precisely how neural networks are trained to deal with fuzzy data?
Yes. And that's how many currently available LLMs work.

Jonathan
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Jdsk »

tim-b wrote: 26 Aug 2025, 7:53am AI doesn't reason. The language models aggregate internet hits on similar problems. Many of them will be wrong and so AI is wrong
This needs distinction between the various approaches used in AI work. Logic programming systems use explicit reasoning. Systems using production rules are often able to explain their outputs.Some pattern recognition systems can. Current LLMs generally can't.

There's a lot of work going on in AI besides LLMs, and besides the LLMs that are now so widely available to the public.

Jonathan
Jdsk
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Jdsk »

Nearholmer wrote: 26 Aug 2025, 12:00am I think it’s wrong at the basic physics level too, because what it’s answering is the question “what kinetic energy does a stated mass travelling at a stated velocity posses?”, which isn't what you asked.

It can’t answer the question you did ask, because it doesn’t have a knowledge of the various resistances (opposing forces) to be overcome during acceleration, and it really ought to have told you that. If you think about trying to accelerate a huge, 5kg silk parachute through the air, a 5kg stone pushed up a hill across a bed of sand, a 5kg block of stone on two ice skates across an ice rink, a 5kg model boat pulled on a string across a pond, and any other weird combination you can think of, my point will become clear.
Yes. But if the standard of comparison is human intelligence how does the relevance of the answer to what was asked compare to, say, a typical thread in this forum?

Jonathan
reohn2
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by reohn2 »

With the growth of AI how will we know the difference between truth and fake/mistake?
It's hard enough now,with AI in full swing confusion will reign which will play into the hands of the unscrupulous.
-----------------------------------------------------------
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Jdsk
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Jdsk »

reohn2 wrote: 26 Aug 2025, 8:46am With the growth of AI how will we know the difference between truth and fake/mistake?
It's hard enough now,with AI in full swing confusion will reign which will play into the hands of the unscrupulous.
The same way that was should judge the reliability of other information: provenance, trustworthiness, transparency, identification and minimisation of bias, avoidance of fallacy...

Fortunately we have the benefit of several centuries of learning how to do this.

Jonathan
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Cugel
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Cugel »

Nearholmer wrote: 26 Aug 2025, 8:24am
An AI can't really have experience
Isn’t “experience” precisely how neural networks are trained to deal with fuzzy data?

I’d also argue that a very great deal of human knowledge isn't acquired through experience, at least not the experience of the individual possessing the knowledge. People, and other creatures too to a lesser extent, can be taught, so leapfrogging the experience phase, and people can access “extra-somatic learning” (read books, watch films etc).AI can be taught too, and what we are watching is one type of AI making a right cods of trying to access and use extra-somatic learning - it’s like a bright four year old let loose in the British Library currently: it can read all the books, and parrot bits of them, but it hasn’t yet acquired the ability to synthesise factoids into knowledge, and fictionoids into completely wrong-headed beliefs, both of which humans are brilliant at.
Experience of absorbing extra-somatic information isn't a full or true experience of the world, though, is it? It's an extracted and reformatted description of experience. As another thread concerning helmets discusses, it takes a full experience of "doing" to grasp whether the reduced extractive descriptions of an experience are good enough to serve as a basis to make decisions on. The extraction process and the reductive-description processes lose an awful lot of information and context from the actual and real experience within the world. They can also add all sorts of spurious assumptions of very poor credence.

How does the bright four year old of your example become wiser - able to judge and use (or not use) non-somatic learning information? One variety of four year olds goes to university and learns some more complex rotes - various procedures and propositions that build a theoretical knowledge. How good that knowledge is will depend a huge amount on how cogent the experiences and interpretations of them are of those creating the theoretical body of knowledge taken up by our student.

And if the student is ever, themselves, to become good at the particular concern and associated conduct pursuing it, they'll need also to go out into the world to practice it. Bridges built by mere students of no practical experience are much more likely to fall down. A learner driver who studies only the theory is still rather likely to have a crash if they haven't had a lot of careful practice actually driving in a real environment. (This is one problem for driverless cars - how to get, process and implement real-world experience without making lots of rather dangerous mistakes).

At present it does seem like AI focussed on very specific tasks and fed with a lot of high quality experience-based data by humans can do a better job at prediction or analysis than a human. But this is due to two factors: processing speed in silicon; lack of spurious distractions like those present in any human brain as it examines things. Diagnosis of scan imagery is probably done with better analysis and detection by a well-trained AI than a busy human consultant can manage. But as far as I know, there isn't yet an AI that can learn from scratch what that consultant knows, without using the vast experience-based historical data created by the long traditions of various medical specialisms.

***********
When the non-somatic data presented to an AI learning to analyse it so as to detect patterns to use to make predictions, the quality of the non-somatic data used is crucial. If that data is highly coloured by a religion, ideology or vested interest then the AI predictions will be just as flawed as the junk propositions often contained in such stuff. Is there yet (and can there be) an AI that can sort such feed-data for inconsistencies, contradictions and (most important of all) a non-match to the real world and all of the behaviours in it? It's the dream of some to make such an AI but if one arises, what will it form as it's own intents?

Scary answers are as numerous as human utopian hopes.
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Nearholmer »

Experience of absorbing extra-somatic information isn't a full or true experience of the world, though, is it?
Of course not, but it leapfrogs a person ahead very effectively in a huge number of applications, they don’t have to work out from scratch for themself the entire body of scientific knowledge and philosophical insight. In the former case, and maybe the latter too, they can stand on the shoulders of giants.

As to how people, and the machines that people create, become able to synthesise oodles of knowledge and then make use, good, bad, or indifferent, of it to inform actions, Im not entirely sure, but people certainly do, tweaking their responses in accordance with what works and what doesn’t (learning from experience), incorporating new knowledge as they go etc.

It’s all very easy to pour doom and scorn on the human capacity to reach workable decisions on the basis of oodles of real-time inputs and stored knowledge, and to say that it takes us to bad and dark places (which it unquestionably does sometimes), but it’s proven itself very amply indeed by allowing us to proliferate. It works, and I’d wager that we can create machines in which it works …… the key question is “if, as it seems, our prime directive is to proliferate”, then what should we make theirs? Simply telling them to go forth and multiply might not be a very wise idea.
mattheus
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by mattheus »

AI has created a new "respected authority". It's probably no worse than the ones we already have, but I'd rather we got a new authority that was equal to the best of what we have, at least!

Sort of "standing on the shoulders of giants typical people, some of whom are stood in mud; but you can't tell which"
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Cugel
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Cugel »

Nearholmer wrote: 26 Aug 2025, 10:58am
Experience of absorbing extra-somatic information isn't a full or true experience of the world, though, is it?
Of course not, but it leapfrogs a person ahead very effectively in a huge number of applications, they don’t have to work out from scratch for themself the entire body of scientific knowledge and philosophical insight. In the former case, and maybe the latter too, they can stand on the shoulders of giants.

As to how people, and the machines that people create, become able to synthesise oodles of knowledge and then make use, good, bad, or indifferent, of it to inform actions, Im not entirely sure, but people certainly do, tweaking their responses in accordance with what works and what doesn’t (learning from experience), incorporating new knowledge as they go etc.

It’s all very easy to pour doom and scorn on the human capacity to reach workable decisions on the basis of oodles of real-time inputs and stored knowledge, and to say that it takes us to bad and dark places (which it unquestionably does sometimes), but it’s proven itself very amply indeed by allowing us to proliferate. It works, and I’d wager that we can create machines in which it works …… the key question is “if, as it seems, our prime directive is to proliferate”, then what should we make theirs? Simply telling them to go forth and multiply might not be a very wise idea.
Non-somatic information and its use can, as you say, "leapfrog a person ahead very effectively" in various domains of specialised human doings. The harder sciences are perhaps the best example of this, not least because a lot of the knowledge involved is mostly used to derive further such knowledge, with only a modicum translating into more practical doings. In reality, though, its often the experience of performing practical endeavours that generate theoretical knowledge or improvements to it in the first place.

Technology, historically, has often come before the various scientific understandings that can clarify and improve that technology. In fact, the scientific method recognises this, generally claiming that the process begins with evidence and fact collecting, which then tends to suggest theories of why things work as they do. (In reality, of course, cultural pre-conditions often suggest a theory first, with evidence and facts collected or formed to bolster that theory, sometimes ignoring evidence and facts that don't).

But there are many academic domains, with large bodies of "scientific knowledge and philosophical insight" that are a very poor guide to reality; and not very effective at all at predicting the future or determining the minutiae of how something actually works or doesn't work. Economics is one good example. Psychiatry, sociology and political philosophy are other such examples. What a student of these leapfrogs into is often a domain of SNAFU and ineffective techniques, some doing serious harm.

*************
The dominance of non-somatic learning is rather a new thing in human history. It's only come to the degree of dominance and effect on history in the last few thousand years, with the greatest effects in the last 250 years. Not that long ago the vast majority of human learning was via practice, not theorising. Humans did things rather than writing or reading about them.

It is the case that modern education and media have vastly accelerated many of the practical intents often claimed as great human successes. But the effects have not yet fully come to fruition. Whilst the human population has increased dramatically via modern medicine, agriculture and industry, many of that increased population live miserable and degraded lives as a result, even in First World countries like ours. Moreover, the full effects of all those clever non-somatic learnings and their translation into real world doings are becoming more apparent; and they do bode a great ill for not just humans but a vast swathe of the biosphere, in which many species have already gone extinct in a very short time due to our clever doings.

***************
So, even we clever humans, with our mix of theoretical and practical knowledge & skills, have failed to act in a truly intelligent way. AI that has no recourse but to the kind of knowledge and understanding that's non-somatic may have even more of an inclination to wreak unintelligent acts into the world. Some will be seeded by human stupidities and some may be native stupidities generated by the AIs themselves.

*************

AIs made able to directly act in the physical world and measure/evaluate their experiences there seem likely to be both the best hope for a truly intelligent AI .... but also a serious existential risk to the biosphere, especially humans. Robotic entities driven by AI seem likely to be at the bleeding edge of a more versatile AI development.

Self driving cars, the more optimistic humans dream of. Terminator-like hunter-killer drones are the entities most feared by the pessimists, of which I am a-one. These things are being rapidly developed in the Russia-Ukraine war, copied by malign states such as the US and Israel and are likely to eventuate in a fully-developed form as a automated factory producing and emitting millions of things, each with a neural-network learning capacity enabling them to get very good at hunting and killing humans with various attributes seeded into the drone AI by the warring humans.

But we may first all be dead of weather and the consequent vast changes climate change is bringing to food production, trading practices and several other human systems highly vulnerable to any significant perturbation. All wrought courtesy of non-somatic learning and its leapfrogging ...... to our doom. Maybe the biosphere would have been better served if we'd remained in the stone age? :-)
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Chris Jeggo
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Re: Do you trust AI?

Post by Chris Jeggo »

Do you trust HI? I used to work in AI a few decades ago. It seems to me that one assesses the trustworthiness of a machine in much the same way as one assesses the trustworthiness of a human.
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