So, 13 cyclist deaths and we are only halfway through the month! Is this an abnormality or is it going on to be the worst January for over 12 years in terms of deaths..(I don't have previous no as I pinched the figures off road CC article)
It would seem things are getting worse not better, safety in numbers on the face of it isn't working either.
2013 - 9
2012 - 11
2011 - 9
2010 - 3
2009 - 6
2008 - 14
2007 - 14
2006 - 16
2005 - 7
2004 - 7
2003 - 12
13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
Last edited by Tonyf33 on 17 Jan 2015, 12:48am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
A simple view maybe, but there's more cyclists on the roads, more motorists on the roads and less patience from all concerned.
Various family members (all of whom are drivers) all feel the same. Driving on the whole is becoming less civilised and more hurried.
Various family members (all of whom are drivers) all feel the same. Driving on the whole is becoming less civilised and more hurried.
Bill
“Ride as much or as little, or as long or as short as you feel. But ride.” ~ Eddy Merckx
It's a rich man whos children run to him when his pockets are empty.
“Ride as much or as little, or as long or as short as you feel. But ride.” ~ Eddy Merckx
It's a rich man whos children run to him when his pockets are empty.
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
Hopefully just a result of the increased popularity of cycling.
Notice 2003 is very low, which some of us will remember was the January that was so cold and icy that very few people took their bikes to the roads. In fact a part of Audax considered it so bad that it was declared a non-month for competition purposes and allowed it to be combined with February.
So possibly this year had the right sort of weather to not put people off riding.
Notice 2003 is very low, which some of us will remember was the January that was so cold and icy that very few people took their bikes to the roads. In fact a part of Audax considered it so bad that it was declared a non-month for competition purposes and allowed it to be combined with February.
So possibly this year had the right sort of weather to not put people off riding.
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
So possibly this year had the right sort of weather to not put people off riding.
I suspect that you are right and that this could be a major factor in it.
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
We're a dying race
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
So possibly this year had the right sort of weather to not put people off riding.
In my neck of the woods I think its been one of the worst Januarys for riding. I've not been able to get out on the bike at all which is very unusual for me. I do admit though, on the few very bright sunny days weve had, I don't go out. I don't trust drivers when the sun is so low in the sky. Done a lot of walking and running though.
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that cyclists are out more this month, I've not being out that much, weather has being rank I'd reckon less cycling if anything..and surely given the more = safer mantra that has always being spun then surely that should mean fewer deaths right?
IF and that's a big if at this stage number of deaths go up (whilst arrests and convictions for errant motorists are still ridiculously low) what is going to happen..yes..exactly Sweet FA. Cyclists will die needlessly and the cycling organisations will still pander to councils and government without so much as a squeak
IF and that's a big if at this stage number of deaths go up (whilst arrests and convictions for errant motorists are still ridiculously low) what is going to happen..yes..exactly Sweet FA. Cyclists will die needlessly and the cycling organisations will still pander to councils and government without so much as a squeak
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
This was nearly another KSI in Bristol yesterday.
~Luckily the rider escaped with road rash and some mental scarring.
From exchanges on Twitter she was coming along the A4 into Bristol and used the cyclelane to bypass the lights and the HGV turned into the cycle lane after the lights.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.44255 ... e0!6m1!1e1
~Luckily the rider escaped with road rash and some mental scarring.
From exchanges on Twitter she was coming along the A4 into Bristol and used the cyclelane to bypass the lights and the HGV turned into the cycle lane after the lights.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@51.44255 ... e0!6m1!1e1
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
Tonyf33 wrote:I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that cyclists are out more this month, I've not being out that much, weather has being rank I'd reckon less cycling if anything..and surely given the more = safer mantra that has always being spun then surely that should mean fewer deaths right?
IF and that's a big if at this stage number of deaths go up (whilst arrests and convictions for errant motorists are still ridiculously low) what is going to happen..yes..exactly Sweet FA. Cyclists will die needlessly and the cycling organisations will still pander to councils and government without so much as a squeak
Safety in number means that more cyclists results in proportionally fewer deaths. That is, if the number of cyclists goes up by 50%, maybe the number of deaths only goes up 40%.
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
Vorpal wrote:Tonyf33 wrote:I don't think there is any evidence whatsoever that cyclists are out more this month, I've not being out that much, weather has being rank I'd reckon less cycling if anything..and surely given the more = safer mantra that has always being spun then surely that should mean fewer deaths right?
IF and that's a big if at this stage number of deaths go up (whilst arrests and convictions for errant motorists are still ridiculously low) what is going to happen..yes..exactly Sweet FA. Cyclists will die needlessly and the cycling organisations will still pander to councils and government without so much as a squeak
Safety in number means that more cyclists results in proportionally fewer deaths. That is, if the number of cyclists goes up by 50%, maybe the number of deaths only goes up 40%.
Whichever way you look at it (more or fewer cyclists) 13 deaths in 16 days is a shocking number, if as some are saying the number of cyclists is up on previous January's then the rate of deaths has risen by far more than any possible increase in cycling numbers..ergo, safety in numbers isn't working
If there are fewer cyclists on the road for January then by comparison to 'average' or even high end months from past years so far we are heading for a record number of deaths on our roads...
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
It is a shocking number, and I wasn't suggesting it isn't.
“In some ways, it is easier to be a dissident, for then one is without responsibility.”
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom
― Nelson Mandela, Long Walk to Freedom
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
The safety in numbers effect isnt here yet. It will need a threshold of cyclist numbers to be reached for the effect to kick in.
It may have been reached locally in parts of London and Cambridge and possibly another few isolated places. For most of the UK's geographical area it is a long way off. I would guess that even for a majority of its populated areas too.
It may have been reached locally in parts of London and Cambridge and possibly another few isolated places. For most of the UK's geographical area it is a long way off. I would guess that even for a majority of its populated areas too.
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
Its most likely to just be statistical fluctuations in the numbers. This very readable paper discusses the subject around the death of six cyclists in one week in London a few years ago against a background average of 1-2 a month.
Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
The month isnt over yet. All those figures are for the whole month, which included periods without deaths as well as with.
It may be that we continue the month at the same rate and have a record high or it may be that we have no further deaths and come a third of the way down that table. We can not break down any of the previous years' monthly figures to see how evenly the deaths were distributed.
Two deaths on New Year's Day gives a monthly rate of 62 and I thnk that we did have two on New Years's Day (I certainly recall one) so the rate has improved since then.
In other words you can not extrapolate random results from a small time frame like this.
It may be that we continue the month at the same rate and have a record high or it may be that we have no further deaths and come a third of the way down that table. We can not break down any of the previous years' monthly figures to see how evenly the deaths were distributed.
Two deaths on New Year's Day gives a monthly rate of 62 and I thnk that we did have two on New Years's Day (I certainly recall one) so the rate has improved since then.
In other words you can not extrapolate random results from a small time frame like this.
Yma o Hyd
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Re: 13 deaths in January, heading for worst in over 10 yrs
The headline of the post is misleading. 13 deaths are a tragedy, but the question is really a statistical one. Whilst deaths are up, the real question is 'is the number of deaths relative to the size of the cycling population up?'. This is a very different question.
This can even be developed further to cover mileage: 'Are the number of cycling deaths relative to the annual cycled mileage within the UK up?'
If the press headlines are to be believed (recently seen - 'Cycling is the new golf', 'the Wiggins effect' etc) plus the soaring cost of public transport then it would seem to be the numbers cycling is on the increase. Based on my limited experience of cycling amongst a population of goodness knows what size there seem to be more cyclists around compared with the years (over 30 years ago!) in which I was the only cyclist on the road as I travelled to a holiday job in the vicinity of Heathrow - a round trip of some 30 miles! When I cycle today this is rarely the case - there is always another cyclist on one side of the road or another! This suggests the cycling population is up. Therefore the number of cycling deaths would realistically go up.
Further the pattern suggested by the figures is often just random statistical noise - and unless trends are looked at over a very long period of time again its hard to draw sensible conclusions.
Unless some sort of relative comparison with either the cycling population or the cycled mileage is made, its hard to draw any sensible conclusions about the relative safety of cycling.
NB As a more obscure point, what about the numbers of deaths prevented by people taking up cycling?
This can even be developed further to cover mileage: 'Are the number of cycling deaths relative to the annual cycled mileage within the UK up?'
If the press headlines are to be believed (recently seen - 'Cycling is the new golf', 'the Wiggins effect' etc) plus the soaring cost of public transport then it would seem to be the numbers cycling is on the increase. Based on my limited experience of cycling amongst a population of goodness knows what size there seem to be more cyclists around compared with the years (over 30 years ago!) in which I was the only cyclist on the road as I travelled to a holiday job in the vicinity of Heathrow - a round trip of some 30 miles! When I cycle today this is rarely the case - there is always another cyclist on one side of the road or another! This suggests the cycling population is up. Therefore the number of cycling deaths would realistically go up.
Further the pattern suggested by the figures is often just random statistical noise - and unless trends are looked at over a very long period of time again its hard to draw sensible conclusions.
Unless some sort of relative comparison with either the cycling population or the cycled mileage is made, its hard to draw any sensible conclusions about the relative safety of cycling.
NB As a more obscure point, what about the numbers of deaths prevented by people taking up cycling?